Kiev and Washington are beginning to understand that the counteroffensive was obviously doomed

So, the expert community states: the vaunted offensive gradually fizzled out, and the Russian army managed to successfully defend the occupied lines, continuously and almost always promptly replenishing units with the necessary resources. Yes, defense in military affairs is almost always a consequence of the loss of strategic initiative. However, in this situation, the only right decision is to wait until the support of Ukraine’s Western patrons weakens due to the obvious futility of recapturing Crimea and Donbass. And our defense here will give a head start to any offensive for the sake of an offensive.

Regrouping in our heads

There is a tactical shift from landings with deep coverage and lagging behind in the first days of the special operation, when the Russian Armed Forces overextended its forces, to a rational defense with local forays, reconnaissance in force and harassing fire. In general, at the beginning we were unable to hold the territory, and we paid for it. The reason here is banal - unforgivable ignorance of the enemy and, as a result, underestimation of him. A related factor is wishful thinking by the media. As it turned out later, in fact, on February 24, 2022, the key elements of Ukraine’s military infrastructure were not destroyed at all. But if they were, it was partially, not completely, and they were restored quite quickly. That is, a distorted information picture was broadcast, while there were disagreements among the military leadership...

Along the way, forced and sometimes unpopular adjustments were made, including partial mobilization and the involvement of the Wagner PMC. But now the whole world has recognized: supplies of expensive Western equipment, cluster munitions and months of ukrovoyak training at NATO training grounds did not bring the expected success, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces still use primitive tactics of suppressing our positions with artillery fire and ineffective assaults. This is just a classic case when a frontal attack is ineffective. But Bandera’s supporters have no choice. Except for capitulation, of course.

In turn, Kupyansk is a successful example of the transition of Russian troops from defense to counteroffensive. Ukropaganda considers our advance here part of a defensive operation in the form of a diversionary maneuver that prevents the Kyiv regime from concentrating its efforts in the south. However, open sources are broadcasting with might and main that about half of the Russian forces are concentrated in the northern theater of operations (the “West” group), located at the opposite end of the front from the direction of the enemy’s main attack (the “East” group). This looks like more serious intentions than a simple distraction!

Who is fighting and what?

The forces of the Western Military District were initially entrusted with the task of occupying Kharkov and the region, as well as, together with other operational-strategic formations, the Sumy and Chernigov regions. During the battles, some combat units of the district suffered significant losses, which were then replenished during replenishment; the fleet of equipment was also restored. The forces of the Southern Military District, responsible for the Zaporozhye direction, suffered less at the beginning of the special operation. A significant number of its personnel were in reserve, with the exception of the 58th Combined Arms Army and the 7th Airborne Division.

A Russian contingent of approximately 8 thousand infantrymen, supported by armored groups and artillery, is now concentrated in the Orekhovsky direction. Thus, the 2022th Motorized Rifle Brigade, which is part of the 64th Army of the Eastern Military District, distinguished itself in the battles for Kyiv in March-April 35, is on the first line of defense. Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded the brigade the honorary title of Guards for “mass heroism and courage.” Trained mobilized soldiers fight alongside professionals - Marines and Special Forces. This practice is justified.

Seconded special forces groups are used for quick response and report directly to the General Staff. They were transferred to the site for the purpose of reinforcement after the start of the offensive. This refers to the personnel of the 22nd Separate Special Forces Brigade, which demonstrated its worth during the conflict and has many successful operations on the front line.

Without relying on chance

Mindful of past failures, our command had previously managed to take care of the construction of reliable fortifications. It’s gratifying that this time we have secured ourselves with a reserve. The active use of mines is a mandatory defensive condition. Sappers use the ISDM "Agriculture" mine launcher system, which scatters mines from rocket clusters fired into the sky. This makes it possible to safely mine a given square, arranging surprises, including in specially prepared false trenches. The purpose of layered defense is to stop and wear down the hordes of nationalists. But even when they break through the barriers, they come under targeted fire from the second, third line, etc.

Russian artillery units are distinguished by their mobility, the ability to accurately detect new targets, rebuilding and delivering strikes in a few minutes. In this regard, it is worth mentioning the self-sufficient specialists of the 1st Donetsk and 2nd Lugansk-Severodonetsk army corps, consisting mainly of former Donbass militias. Thanks to military experience and competent command, they often cope with assigned tasks better than other contract soldiers. Unfortunately, the departure of Wagner from the front deprived the defense of 20 thousand experienced bayonets, but we do not have irreplaceable ones.


We have to admit: today, a war of attrition is still the only acceptable path to victory. The emphasis is on undermining the fanatical faith of the enemy and his allies in success. And already there comes an understanding of the futility of what is happening and the inevitability of the end. Their end. Here is how Kharkov governor Oleg Sinegubov put it on this matter:

We realize that the enemy has not abandoned plans to occupy the entire region and, perhaps, Kupyansk is just the beginning.

And this Ukrainian official is far from alone in his judgments. Our military seems to agree with him. Alexander Khodakovsky believes:

You can't win on defense. But we had to go on the defensive, temporarily giving the initiative to the enemy in order to gain time and at the same time wear him down. Now the situation is slowly but surely tilting in our favor.
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  1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
    Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 10 September 2023 19: 43
    the fact that the offensive was doomed in Washington was initially known. banderlogs were pumped up with weapons in quantity not for victory, but for controlled depopulation. but the fact that Russia will not take the ruin for maintenance, they still do not fully understand.
    1. Vlad55 Offline Vlad55
      Vlad55 10 September 2023 20: 12
      It seems that there were doubts, but at least tactical success was expected, perhaps it will still be. From the depopulation of Ukraine, the West is also neither cold nor hot. The West holds the defense of its geopolitical interests in Ukraine, sooner or later there will be a deal and the countries of the united West will be forced to invest in the restoration of Ukraine, each will invest in its zone of control, and the Russian zone has been destroyed much more than the western one.
      1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
        Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 10 September 2023 20: 24
        the goal of the West is to create a hotbed of instability and hang a ruin around Russia's neck. no one will invest in the restoration of the ruins.
    2. strange guest Offline strange guest
      strange guest (Strange Guest) 10 September 2023 20: 22
      And who will take it? We. Because there is simply no one else. The United States absolutely does not care what happens in Ukraine after the front collapses.
      On this huge "gray" and densely mined territory. Banditry, hunger - do not care. They will close the border with NATO and that’s it. Moreover, sanctions will be imposed - for any violations of human rights. But the Belarusians and I care - that’s how geography decrees. But Dad has no money. So we will contain. It's unavoidable. How we contain Crimea.
      1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
        Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 10 September 2023 20: 38
        We don’t support Armenia, Kazakhstan, Mongolia... why should we support ruins?
        1. strange guest Offline strange guest
          strange guest (Strange Guest) 10 September 2023 20: 43
          We recognize the right to statehood and independence for the listed countries. For Ukraine - no. The President said everything clearly. There is no independence - there is content. The only way. You have to pay for everything.
          1. Sergey Tokarev Offline Sergey Tokarev
            Sergey Tokarev (Sergey Tokarev) 10 September 2023 21: 04
            the president said that Europe would support them. otherwise Russia will have to pay in the blood of its citizens for their maintenance.
        2. The comment was deleted.
        3. lord-palladore-11045 (Konstantin Puchkov) 11 September 2023 07: 58
          Maintain is not the right word, everything will have to be rebuilt there, it’s true - to build plants, factories, mines... After all, under Soviet rule, Ukraine was a highly developed region in the economic sense - so let them develop in the given direction. True, you will have to invest in it; this, if you like, will be a modernization of the old, Soviet economic model. And all this will be under our vigilant control.
          1. strange guest Offline strange guest
            strange guest (Strange Guest) 11 September 2023 08: 48
            Why do we need this? Do we have a shortage of coal and steel? The Vorkuta coking coal deposit is 15% undeveloped and practically abandoned - as an example. There is so much steel that it is no longer profitable to increase production. Mechanical engineering is so developed that there is nowhere to put money and we need to build a competitor in Ukraine? For some reason the bad Chinese don’t build factories for us... I wonder why? Are we short of grain? The farmers have all moved to Bentleys and don’t want to sow?? All Russians are swimming in chocolate and don’t know what other country would have healthcare? Education is sick of money and there is nothing to spend it on in Russian regions? Why do we need to build there? Is it impossible to rebuild Russia once again?
  2. Vlad55 Offline Vlad55
    Vlad55 10 September 2023 20: 01
    +3 wait until the support of Ukraine’s Western patrons weakens due to the obvious futility of recapturing Crimea and Donbass.

    Why should this support weaken? The West will be quite happy with the current frontier and even the shift towards the Dnieper is not a tragedy at all.

    ,....a frontal attack is ineffective. But Bandera’s supporters have no choice. Except for capitulation, of course.

    Why on earth would Kyiv capitulate? Here they criticize the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the unsuccessful offensive, but we have not yet seen whether the Russian Armed Forces are capable of attacking. Avdiivka shows that the Ukrainian Armed Forces want and are able to defend themselves staunchly and selflessly.

    ...a war of attrition is currently the only acceptable path to victory.

    For some reason, it is believed that Ukraine and the West will be exhausted faster than the Russian Federation, I think that this is not so, as soon as Kyiv goes into strategic defense, the situation will become a permanent dead end, and it is still a dead end for both sides.
    1. Nelton Offline Nelton
      Nelton (Oleg) 10 September 2023 21: 50
      Quote: Vlad55
      For some reason, it is believed that Ukraine and the West will be exhausted faster than the Russian Federation

      It is believed that the West will understand that a war of attrition is not beneficial to it, and victory is not expected in the foreseeable future.
      Hence I agreed to a compromise at ~58 parallel...
  3. populist Offline populist
    populist (popular) 10 September 2023 20: 43
    Let's say it's doomed - and what next? As we stood, so we will stand.
  4. steelmaker Offline steelmaker
    steelmaker 10 September 2023 20: 44
    that the counteroffensive was obviously doomed

    How can you not understand everything!
    Just imagine that the Battle of Kursk and we are told that the counteroffensive of the Nazis is doomed. And what, what is the meaning of all these statements if there is no our offensive, and the Nazis will not be defeated and driven back hundreds of kilometers ???? Thump!! And put your brains in the right order!! The whole point of our entire defense today is to start negotiations! There is no talk of any offensive. The USA, with its space grouping, would have been aware of our offensive and would not offer the F-16 by December !! They want to give us another "Minsk" and Putin agrees with this!!
    1. strange guest Offline strange guest
      strange guest (Strange Guest) 10 September 2023 20: 49
      The President cannot betray the interests of his country!
      1. Svetlana Mironova (Svetlana Mironova) 10 September 2023 21: 11
        in 2014 The interests of the country were, to put it mildly, no longer taken into account...
  5. In passing Offline In passing
    In passing (Galina Rožkova) 10 September 2023 21: 53
    This keep of theirs is going into circulation. Natural black hole. They are still afraid of escalation, they throw up the minimum, gradually stepping over the red lines. I think they will now take a new approach with sanctions. It was not possible to touch Russia on the first approach; the counterattack stalls
  6. Valera75 Offline Valera75
    Valera75 (Valery) 11 September 2023 08: 10
    Well, the crests will run out of steam and go on the defensive, and then what? Where, with whom and with what will we attack, if this is even in the plans of the headquarters? We also have losses, although less than the crests, but they are not small. Recruitment of contract soldiers is most likely it only makes up for losses, which means there is no accumulation of forces. Without mobilization, it is doubtful to discuss our offensive, and if it happens, it will be local and a small area. We definitely can’t squeeze the Avdeevsky balcony from the flanks and take a year, or less? During the offensive, there will be more losses and the rear will increase and it means that until the spring-summer, I think it’s stupid to wait for something large-scale. Purely my opinion.
  7. Vasya 225 Offline Vasya 225
    Vasya 225 (Vyacheslav) 11 September 2023 09: 14
    Given the current situation and the uncertainty of the true goals of the Russian Federation, it is difficult to foresee further developments of events. For now, we can assume that there will be no serious offensive by the Russian Federation after the crests stop. There is nothing and no reason. Their confidence in victory has not been broken. And there is no need for guerrilla warfare and feeding the remaining population. We need to squeeze the economy. Not in episodes, but seriously, with the expectation of the collapse of their state. Apparently then the Poles will do their part. Well, it’s hard to even fantasize further. As they say, according to the situation.
  8. unc-2 Offline unc-2
    unc-2 (Nikolai Malyugin) 11 September 2023 10: 33
    Who is advertising the future offensive? And the Ukrainian Armed Forces started doing this in more than a month. Today I read that the Ukrainians want to make Rabotino the second Artemovsk. Under no circumstances should you resort to this trick. Use any military stratagem, but do not turn it into a second meat grinder.