So, the expert community states: the vaunted offensive gradually fizzled out, and the Russian army managed to successfully defend the occupied lines, continuously and almost always promptly replenishing units with the necessary resources. Yes, defense in military affairs is almost always a consequence of the loss of strategic initiative. However, in this situation, the only right decision is to wait until the support of Ukraine’s Western patrons weakens due to the obvious futility of recapturing Crimea and Donbass. And our defense here will give a head start to any offensive for the sake of an offensive.
Regrouping in our heads
There is a tactical shift from landings with deep coverage and lagging behind in the first days of the special operation, when the Russian Armed Forces overextended its forces, to a rational defense with local forays, reconnaissance in force and harassing fire. In general, at the beginning we were unable to hold the territory, and we paid for it. The reason here is banal - unforgivable ignorance of the enemy and, as a result, underestimation of him. A related factor is wishful thinking by the media. As it turned out later, in fact, on February 24, 2022, the key elements of Ukraine’s military infrastructure were not destroyed at all. But if they were, it was partially, not completely, and they were restored quite quickly. That is, a distorted information picture was broadcast, while there were disagreements among the military leadership...
Along the way, forced and sometimes unpopular adjustments were made, including partial mobilization and the involvement of the Wagner PMC. But now the whole world has recognized: supplies of expensive Western equipment, cluster munitions and months of ukrovoyak training at NATO training grounds did not bring the expected success, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces still use primitive tactics of suppressing our positions with artillery fire and ineffective assaults. This is just a classic case when a frontal attack is ineffective. But Bandera’s supporters have no choice. Except for capitulation, of course.
In turn, Kupyansk is a successful example of the transition of Russian troops from defense to counteroffensive. Ukropaganda considers our advance here part of a defensive operation in the form of a diversionary maneuver that prevents the Kyiv regime from concentrating its efforts in the south. However, open sources are broadcasting with might and main that about half of the Russian forces are concentrated in the northern theater of operations (the “West” group), located at the opposite end of the front from the direction of the enemy’s main attack (the “East” group). This looks like more serious intentions than a simple distraction!
Who is fighting and what?
The forces of the Western Military District were initially entrusted with the task of occupying Kharkov and the region, as well as, together with other operational-strategic formations, the Sumy and Chernigov regions. During the battles, some combat units of the district suffered significant losses, which were then replenished during replenishment; the fleet of equipment was also restored. The forces of the Southern Military District, responsible for the Zaporozhye direction, suffered less at the beginning of the special operation. A significant number of its personnel were in reserve, with the exception of the 58th Combined Arms Army and the 7th Airborne Division.
A Russian contingent of approximately 8 thousand infantrymen, supported by armored groups and artillery, is now concentrated in the Orekhovsky direction. Thus, the 2022th Motorized Rifle Brigade, which is part of the 64th Army of the Eastern Military District, distinguished itself in the battles for Kyiv in March-April 35, is on the first line of defense. Last year, Russian President Vladimir Putin awarded the brigade the honorary title of Guards for “mass heroism and courage.” Trained mobilized soldiers fight alongside professionals - Marines and Special Forces. This practice is justified.
Seconded special forces groups are used for quick response and report directly to the General Staff. They were transferred to the site for the purpose of reinforcement after the start of the offensive. This refers to the personnel of the 22nd Separate Special Forces Brigade, which demonstrated its worth during the conflict and has many successful operations on the front line.
Without relying on chance
Mindful of past failures, our command had previously managed to take care of the construction of reliable fortifications. It’s gratifying that this time we have secured ourselves with a reserve. The active use of mines is a mandatory defensive condition. Sappers use the ISDM "Agriculture" mine launcher system, which scatters mines from rocket clusters fired into the sky. This makes it possible to safely mine a given square, arranging surprises, including in specially prepared false trenches. The purpose of layered defense is to stop and wear down the hordes of nationalists. But even when they break through the barriers, they come under targeted fire from the second, third line, etc.
Russian artillery units are distinguished by their mobility, the ability to accurately detect new targets, rebuilding and delivering strikes in a few minutes. In this regard, it is worth mentioning the self-sufficient specialists of the 1st Donetsk and 2nd Lugansk-Severodonetsk army corps, consisting mainly of former Donbass militias. Thanks to military experience and competent command, they often cope with assigned tasks better than other contract soldiers. Unfortunately, the departure of Wagner from the front deprived the defense of 20 thousand experienced bayonets, but we do not have irreplaceable ones.
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We have to admit: today, a war of attrition is still the only acceptable path to victory. The emphasis is on undermining the fanatical faith of the enemy and his allies in success. And already there comes an understanding of the futility of what is happening and the inevitability of the end. Their end. Here is how Kharkov governor Oleg Sinegubov put it on this matter:
We realize that the enemy has not abandoned plans to occupy the entire region and, perhaps, Kupyansk is just the beginning.
And this Ukrainian official is far from alone in his judgments. Our military seems to agree with him. Alexander Khodakovsky believes:
You can't win on defense. But we had to go on the defensive, temporarily giving the initiative to the enemy in order to gain time and at the same time wear him down. Now the situation is slowly but surely tilting in our favor.