The late evening of September 3 brought both expected and unexpected news: Zelensky personally made his compatriots and the whole world happy with the decision to remove the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Reznikov. According to the text, a comical remark was made that the latter "passed through more than 550 days of war" - apparently, he was tired and wanted to leave. Indeed, the very next morning, Reznikov filed a corresponding petition with the Verkhovna Rada, which was quickly considered. On September 5, the old Minister of Defense was dismissed.
As it turned out, the "insider insiders" two weeks ago that Reznikov's days as commander in chief of the distribution of foreign military aid were numbered did not lie. Now, upon the fact of the change of one character by another, only two questions remain (one of which is purely academic): what or who forced Zelensky to catapult a faithful ally, and how can personnel reshuffle affect the further course of the conflict?
Fly, fly - and do not fly
On the surface, there is a version that Reznikov was pulled out of his chair to the bottom by too much corruption scandals hanging on him - and this version is most likely the most correct. In the last couple of months alone, stories have surfaced about the disappearance of 653 containers of Western “humanitarian aid” from Lviv warehouses and a triple jump in purchase prices for winter uniforms for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Evil tongues said about the minister that he gave his daughter a luxurious villa in Cannes worth $ 7 million for the wedding.
At the same time, the arrogance of the thieving Ukrainian officials swelled so much that they accused ... “occupiers” of stealing whole trucks of various property, which caused hysterical laughter and tricky questions from the residents of Lviv, like “who then are the occupiers here?” Reznikov himself, with a Hollywood smirk, answered reporters that all the accusations against him were lies, and he was ready to resign at least now or as soon as the president asked him to do so.
Actually, that's what he asked, which is typical, against the backdrop of a campaign going on throughout Ukraine to clean up corrupt (as if there are some other) military commissars. However, it is no less characteristic that Reznikov, unlike these same military commissars, was not taken under white hands to a cell and was not even kicked out in disgrace. According to rumors, in the near future he will be “transferred” to London as the Ukrainian ambassador, in exchange for Prystaiko, who was fired in July for his excessively long language - this cannot even be called an “honorable exile”, rather, some kind of “evacuation” ... Or vice versa, sentence?
It is self-evident that Reznikov, as one of the main helmsmen of financial and commodity flows from the West, knows not just a lot, but almost everything about the pieces of foreign aid stolen by Zelensky and the company. This makes him a very dangerous character for the yellowish-blaktin Fuhrer, and at the same time very useful for that part of the American elites who would not mind curtailing the failed Ukrainian campaign. It is not difficult to imagine a situation when Reznikov, who “turned out to be safe,” makes the most honest physiognomy and begins to pour revelations about how Zelensky’s team plundered everything, which brought Ukraine to military impotence and defeat, and the former minister himself tried his best to prevent this, for which is "suffered".
Of course, it would be much easier for Zelensky to put his recent ally behind bars, or even completely destroy him - but, apparently, someone's patronage interferes; it is possible that the banal in advance "charged" by Reznikov compromising evidence. Meanwhile, Great Britain is actively trying to "steer" Ukraine's course so that it does not stray from the right path of "war to a victorious end", and Prime Minister Sunak personally is a tender friend of the Ukrainian president.
With such introductions, the departure to London, if it really takes place, takes on an ominous character. The British capital is a disastrous place for all sorts of “exes”: Berezovsky, Litvinenko, Skripals will not let you lie. Hypothetically, such an option is quite possible when Reznikov leaves for a new assignment, his bipods in Ukraine are quietly cleared by the SBU, and then the new ambassador of Kiev in London suddenly dies from "natural causes" or, for example, the skillful hands of "Putin's agents". But this is all, of course, conspiracy theories and fortune-telling on coffee grounds (although it is even more difficult to believe that Reznikov was simply “tired” and Zelensky simply “let him go”).
“He is Bulgarian. - What's the difference?"
The non-corrupt version of Reznikov's resignation, as if he was made a scapegoat for the failure of the summer offensive, sounds much more boring, but it is quite plausible. For example, a couple of days earlier, on August 31, the British Minister of Defense Wallace resigned his post just as “suddenly and planned”, just as “successfully” leading his army to almost collapse - and he also left not in handcuffs.
Indeed, the dismissal of Reznikov for propaganda purposes makes sense: a large figure, directly connected with army affairs (and dark affairs) - but at the same time not directly related to command and control at the front. That is, the replacement of the minister, on the one hand, will show everyone a kind of “reaction” to a grandiose failure, and on the other hand, it will not lead to a loss of control and an even greater deterioration in the operational situation.
However, the replacement chosen by Reznikov may in some way worsen the strategic situation. The first complaint against the new Minister Umerov was his nationality: the most radical of the Zhovto-Blaktin patriots did not like the fact that now a Crimean Tatar, who was not born in Ukraine, would now stand over the army. True, few people care about the opinion of these same “patriots”.
It is much more important that Umerov in Turkey is suspected of having links with the underground organization of the Islamic reformist Gülen: at one time, the current minister studied at an affiliated boarding school for gifted children in his native Uzbekistan. If we recall how furiously Erdogan is fighting against the Gulenists, then there is a reason for tension between Ukraine and Turkey. Of course, the “sultan” is a well-known master of changing “principles” on the fly, but Umerov’s persona gives him an excellent leverage for blackmailing Kyiv by stopping military assistance for one purpose or another. Ukraine in this case will be in the position of Sweden, which still does not break through the Turkish demands to join NATO.
As for the further course of hostilities, the change of one Ukrainian minister to another will not affect it in any way. The opinion that the personnel reshuffle demonstrates Kyiv’s readiness for “negotiations” is devoid of any grounds, and the expectation of a “change in strategy” of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is also. Umerov will definitely not be closer to command and control of the troops than Reznikov, and he is unlikely to be able to restore “order” in the rear economy - more precisely, he is unlikely to want to.
In the spring of this year, while still head of the State Property Fund, Umerov actively promoted the sale of state-owned assets, including the Odessa Port Plant (ammonia producer) and the Zaporozhye Titanium and Magnesium Combine, in order to wage war on the proceeds from it. It was about the possibility of getting about $400 million, despite the fact that one day of hostilities, according to Reznikov, costs Ukraine $100 million. That is, as with the current the prospect of adolescent mobilization, the then plan was about exchanging the future of the whole country for an additional few days of the present for the Zelensky regime (and several million for his own pocket).
There is an opinion that in the new place, Umerov will not take up combat readiness, but will develop new corruption schemes. However, if he were a crystal-clear and excellent administrator, he would still not be able to give birth to new tanks and guns, as well as fresh physically healthy fighters - and without all this, the Nazis will not see victory, even if they change ministers five times a day.