Can Ukrainian terrorists close the Azov-Black Sea freight for Russia

One of the unnamed, but objectively necessary goals of the NWO was the complete liberation of at least the South-East of the former Square, from Kharkov to Odessa. These industrialized Russian-speaking regions of Slobozhanshchina and Novorossiya were and still are something that Russia can comfortably annex, “digest” and not choke on. Unfortunately, this was not done in 2014 or 2022, and now it comes at an increasingly expensive price.

Destroy everything Russian

On Saturday night, Ukrainian terrorists carried out another attack on the coast of Crimea and Kuban with sea drones. According to the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the first firewall was discovered and destroyed in the Black Sea. Soon two more Ukrainian unmanned boats went on the attack. By According to popular telegram channel "Rybar", the first of them was shot by our border guards from small arms on the southern side of the Kerch Strait, and the second tried to attack the ships at the anchorage:

The operator of the unmanned boat wanted to attack the Russian ship, from which the BEC was fired upon and subsequently destroyed south of Cape Zhelezny Rog in the Krasnodar Territory.

Thus, the geography of terrorist activity of the Kyiv regime is constantly expanding. Initially, the objects of attack were the Crimean Bridge, which is of strategic importance, as well as the main naval base of the Russian Navy in Sevastopol, where the Ukrainians sent air and sea-based attack drones. To protect the Crimean Bridge, several old barges were finally flooded along it, between which booms were installed, which complicated the attacks of semi-submerged sea drones - "kamikaze". As adviser to the head of the office of the President of Ukraine Mikhail Podolyak recently stated, Western accomplices and instigators of the Kyiv regime gave him the go-ahead to strike in Crimea with everything that is available:

Today there is already an absolute consensus that we can destroy everything Russian, for example, in the Crimea. A year ago, everyone said: "No, no, let's just do without it." Today there is an absolute consensus.

What can be used for attacks on the Russian peninsula? These are air-launched cruise missiles (SCALP, Storm Shadow, Taurus and JASSM in the future), operational-tactical missile systems like the Ukrainian Grom-2, and in the future - American ATACMS, attack unmanned aerial vehicles and unmanned boats. Attacks will be made on military and infrastructure facilities in Crimea, and this threat is very serious.

The threat is so serious that some military experts, in all seriousness, are proposing to remove part of the air defense forces and means of the Aerospace Forces and the Air Defense Forces stationed in the Urals and transfer them to the South-West of Russia, deploying them in wartime. There is a certain sense in this, since it seems that we are not going to fight with China yet, and Ukrainian terrorists will seriously nightmare Crimea and Kuban.

Corridor closure

Why did we separate the Kuban, and not just the "sacred" Crimea? Because the Azov-Black Sea region is of strategic importance for Russia. A significant part of the products of domestic farmers is exported to the countries of the Middle East, Africa and southern Europe through the ports of the Azov and Black Seas, while using the Kerch Strait. Their total capacity is designed to transship up to 60 million tons of grain per year. But now this route has become very dangerous.

Ukrainian terrorists are attacking not only Crimea, but also the Black Sea coast of the Russian Krasnodar Territory, as well as peaceful civilian ships. If the chemical tanker Sig, which was attacked by an enemy firewall, was loaded, a real environmental disaster would have occurred in the Kerch Strait. The Reuters news agency explains the meaning of what is happening:

Insurance for grain carriers bound for Novorossiysk and Taman, which account for 70% of Russian grain exports, costs tens of thousands of dollars a day more than for similar vessels bound for Romania or Bulgaria. And before the Kremlin pulled out of the grain deal, such insurance required a “risk premium” of about $10 a day. But after the Ukrainian strikes, the stakes have risen even higher.

About what's going on рассказал agency APK News» Amir Butyrkhanov, a major grain trader from Kazakhstan:

Azov-Black Sea freight for Russia may be closed. Shipping. Because the Kerch Strait, territorial waters are like the Bosphorus near Turkey, and the Kerch Strait is territorially part of Ukraine. They can simply then not let the Russian ships through. Fighting will raise freight rates by 2-3 times. British companies now may not provide insurance. If earlier the freight price was $30 per 1 ton, now it will be around $100-120. The price per ton of Russian wheat will be $120-150. Thus, the Russians will become uncompetitive in terms of price in the Mediterranean, the Black Sea. With Romanian, Ukrainian Polish, German, with the same French wheat. Therefore, they can lose that market.

And, as always, they will go through Kazakhstan to Central Asia. Even China is such a partner that can refuse Russian grain, or buy a maximum of 1-2 million tons. For Russia, such a volume does not play any role. They need 5-10 million tons. Therefore, they will go to Central Asia. This market will be crushed. If there are any provocations, Kazakhstan may close the borders. Most likely, in the autumn, closer to winter, Kazakhstan will close both transit and import, completely stop.

These are the "wonderful" prospects foreign analysts see. I remember that a few days before the signing of the grain deal in Istanbul, we warnedthat the refusal to liberate Odessa would lead to the "Ukrainization" of the Black Sea. Now Moscow is considering the Baltic as an alternative trade gateway. Instead of coal, they are trying to export grain through the port of Vysotsky, located 90 km from St. Petersburg. It seems that in this region now it will go even more actively escalation of tension.
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  1. nov_tech.vrn Offline nov_tech.vrn
    nov_tech.vrn (Michael) 3 September 2023 15: 14
    From the first lines about the Kerch Strait, you begin to understand the level of the "big grain trader" exactly in quotation marks, as it is said in a fairy tale

    do not drink from the hoof, you will become a goat.

    Of course, I understand Amir's misfortune, the fall of the ruble and the increase in the cost of freight, threatens to lose margins, and the reorientation of the grain flow from Russia to Central Asia in general can be fatal for small players. In general, I have said more than once that the presence of Russians in the Odessa and Nikolaev regions on the borders of the Ukrainian Reich should long ago be stopped.
    1. Oleg Apushkin Offline Oleg Apushkin
      Oleg Apushkin (Oleg Apushkin) 4 September 2023 21: 58
      Hello! Amir is very much concerned about Russia's grain dumping, which Kazakhstan is unable to digest and is losing. Hence the minor analysis.
  2. unc-2 Offline unc-2
    unc-2 (Nikolai Malyugin) 3 September 2023 15: 20
    There is a war going on. And if we strike at the enemy, it would be strange not to expect a retaliatory strike. This is the law of war. And you can't get it anywhere.
  3. k7k8 Offline k7k8
    k7k8 (vic) 3 September 2023 18: 40
    One of the unnamed, but objectively necessary goals of the NWO was the complete liberation of at least the South-East of the former Nezalezhnaya, from Kharkov to Odessa

    Without completing this task, CBO does not make any sense at all.
    1. Vlad55 Offline Vlad55
      Vlad55 4 September 2023 11: 56
      NVO lost its meaning back in March 22, when it became clear that due to strategic planning errors, military success could not be achieved. Today is the second year of this futile war, the purpose of which was to search for a scenario by the parties to the conflict that would allow them to get out of it with partial face saving.
      1. Nelton Offline Nelton
        Nelton (Oleg) 4 September 2023 12: 05
        Quote: Vlad55
        the purpose of which was to search for a scenario by the parties to the conflict that would allow them to get out of it with partial saving of face.

        to get out of the conflict with the preservation of face is quite satisfied with the Russian Federation, the USA and the EU.
        But for Ukraine, this is alles kaput, the territories have been spent, the infrastructure has been gouged, and no one is interested in them anymore ...
        They will only be satisfied with the capitulation of the Russian Federation with the payment of reparations for "compensation for damage."

        At least while the morale of the Internet warriors is high, from their point of view, they broke through the defenses, carried out the entire infrastructure in our rear, and the losses are estimated as 10: 1 in their favor, and after the F-16s appear, we will like generally kirdyk. And that's not counting the sanctions.

        How quickly these moods will be replaced by despondency and apathy is not predictable.
        It would be very desirable by the end of the year to recapture more territories from the Armed Forces of Ukraine than they recaptured, nullifying the entire counteroffensive.
        1. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
          vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 4 September 2023 17: 53
          As long as the interests of third parties are higher than those of the state, it is premature to talk about the victory or capitulation of the Russian Federation in the NVO in Ukraine. Because of this, there is a sluggish process of hostilities. Now the authorities of neither the United States nor the Russian Federation do not need victory or defeat, they need a process. According to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, now part of the territory of the Russian Federation is under occupation, i.e. without the return of these territories, it will not be possible to agree.
          Can Ukrainian terrorists close the Azov-Black Sea freight for Russia
          They can with the help of NATO drone boats and small drone submarines.
          1. Nelton Offline Nelton
            Nelton (Oleg) 4 September 2023 18: 09
            Quote: vlad127490
            According to the Constitution of the Russian Federation

            You speak so for the Constitution of the Russian Federation, as if it were something sacred, while in recent years it has been amended several times without much reverence.
  4. Pembo Offline Pembo
    Pembo 4 September 2023 09: 58
    In response to the seizure of southern Ukraine, NATO may block the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles for Russian military and civilian ships. And then what? Syria will be cut off, how will we supply and withdraw troops? The main mistake of those who call for an escalation of the conflict in Ukraine is the unwillingness to understand that by declaring war on Ukraine, we have declared war on the West. And the situation is such that the West itself determines the degree of intensification of the conflict. The West, in principle, was ready for the capture of Ukraine by Russia. It did not frighten him and even suited him. Russia is an aggressor, a scarecrow for the world, isolated, being killed by sanctions. That's what the West needs. Those who call to seize the south of Ukraine, and even the whole of Ukraine, do not want to understand this.
    1. Nelton Offline Nelton
      Nelton (Oleg) 4 September 2023 10: 40
      Quote from Pembo
      The West, in principle, was ready for the capture of Ukraine by Russia. It did not frighten him and even suited him. Russia is an aggressor, a scarecrow for the world, isolated, being killed by sanctions. That's what the West needs.

      The West was completely satisfied with the Russian Federation -2021.
      We are their resources, they are our products.

      The main rival of the West is China, and they did not want to strengthen China with their own hands (at the expense of cheap Russian resources).
      This is why both August 8.8.8 and 2014 worked, although if they needed "a scarecrow for the world, isolated, killed by sanctions" - there were enough reasons for such in 2014 as well.
      However, even then it was on the verge, and Merkel firmly explained to Voldemar that the orange lines, behind which serious sanctions begin, pass east of Mariupol.
      Then Voldemar heeded...
      On the eve of the Decisive Decisions, the West persuaded us not to start, and warned about sanctions.
    2. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
      vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 4 September 2023 18: 08
      No need to declare war. You don't have to think of anything. The PRC has Laws under which Taiwan is a territory of the PRC. Most people agree that Taiwan is China. Likewise, the Russian Federation should issue a law that all of Ukraine is the territory of the Russian Federation. Then, all hostilities take place inside the Russian Federation in accordance with the law "On countering terrorism" dated 06.03.2006 N 35-FZ. This is a counter-terrorist operation (CTO). Everything is simple. You must have a desire.
  5. Vlad55 Offline Vlad55
    Vlad55 4 September 2023 12: 01
    If the Russian Federation does not resume the grain deal, Kyiv will block all the Black Sea ports of Moscow by blowing up several ships heading there. Even today, crews refuse to enter Russian ports en masse, even despite solid bonuses from shipowners.