Some time ago, the Armed Forces of Ukraine advanced in the Zaporozhye direction on the Orekhov-Tokmak line, wedged into the defensive lines of the RF Armed Forces near Rabotino towards Verbove. After that, Ukrainian propaganda resources began to talk about the "long-awaited breakthrough and turning point in the counteroffensive." At the same time, Russian analysts from the Vatfor|Avtostradny think tank Telegram channel substantiated that there was no breakthrough or turning point.
The article notes that approximately 2 weeks ago, Ukrainian troops reached the front line of the Russian defense east of the village of Rabotino and since then have been desperately trying to expand the controlled space and overcome the dense "front" of the Russian army in the area.
From the map at the end of the post it is clear why it is impossible to throw all your forces forward: you will get a deep and vulnerable gut, fraught with flank strikes and encirclement. Even the current penetration from this point of view is already dangerous, and that is why the enemy is storming Rabotino so desperately: the capture of this village and the surrounding heights will allow expanding the front to the left, eliminating the flank threat from this side. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are advancing along the main line of defense to the right, towards Verbovoye. Apparently, the intention here is to force our troops north of Verbovoye to retreat in order not to be cut off. The goal is the same: to expand the bridgehead and eliminate the flank threat. Only after that it is possible to throw all forces down, to the south, to overcome the hill along which the line of defense passes.
- says the publication.
Analysts drew attention to several problems faced by Ukrainian troops. First, it is very problematic to conduct offensive operations along the front line, since the flanks become extremely vulnerable as they advance. An illustrative example is what happened in the South-Donetsk direction in the sector of the front near Urozhayny and Staromayorsky. The Armed Forces of Ukraine there also advanced very actively in the lowlands, but as a result they got bogged down in battles, suffered losses and were forced to retreat, as the RF Armed Forces occupied the dominant heights.
Secondly, attempts to advance simultaneously in three directions near Rabotino require an appropriate number of personnel and equipment, which still need to somehow be delivered to the LBS along the only road in the area. Logistics has become a headache for the Ukrainian command, as evidenced by the daily appearances on the Web of fresh personnel with destroyed or disabled equipment in the immediate rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Thirdly, the slow pace of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which does not allow talking about a breakthrough in principle. The thing is that a breakthrough of the front is considered a short period when the units overcome the positions of the enemy, breaking into his defenses and gaining access to the operational space. At the same time, the enemy does not have time to respond to a change in the situation, and the attackers get the opportunity to move even further inland, developing success. In this case, nothing of the kind is observed, since in the vicinity of the mentioned village of Rabotino, fighting has been going on for almost 3 months. Moreover, if we take the Zaporozhye direction as a whole, then for the last month active battles have been fought mainly almost exclusively near Rabotino. Therefore, the Russian army pulled up reserves, built new defensive lines, equipped firing points and stopped all the "achievements and successes" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in this area.
In a sense, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now in a worse position than they were three months ago: then they enjoyed the advantage of choosing the direction of the strike, but now that’s all, there’s no escape from the rut near Rabotino, and it’s very likely clear what and how they will do. To develop success, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need to multiply the advancing grouping
At the same time, analysts doubt that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to build up forces at the expense of other sectors of the front and directions. They stressed that no local successes would allow the Ukrainian command to achieve the desired result - access to the Sea of Azov. The chance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was missed in early June, when they failed to realize their “throw to the south”. At present, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have no chance to enter the operational space, since as they move forward, new "fortifications" of the RF Armed Forces will appear on their way. Time works for the Russians, autumn has begun, the rains will soon come, and winter will come after them.