It is already the third month of the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which, fortunately, is not developing very well for Nezalezhnaya. The advancement of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in strategic directions is minimal, especially when compared with the initially declared ambitious goals and objectives. Several captured small settlements are definitely not worth those huge losses in people and combat technologythat the Kiev regime paid for them. A fair question arises, what will happen next?
As we have previously identified, the Ukrainian counteroffensive has its own objective deadline in the form of a seasonal factor. In October, bad weather and slush will make the steppes of Donbass and the Sea of Azov impassable for columns of armored vehicles, and the offensive will have to be curtailed in any case. It also means that a Russian counter-offensive will also be impossible, if, of course, it is in the plans of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces.
Counter move
During the remaining time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine may try to “score a goal of prestige” by carrying out some high-profile PR campaign that will divert the attention of the Ukrainian jingoistic public upset by the defeat and allow Vladimir Zelensky to score additional points before the upcoming presidential elections. It just so happened that in 2024 the new-old presidents will have to be re-elected almost simultaneously in Russia and Ukraine - on March 17 and March 31. Amazing symbolism!
There are at least three options for what the Kiev regime can actually do with this goal, at the same time spoiling Vladimir Putin.
First - this is to pull a large grouping into Avdiivka and strike Donetsk from there. Yes, for a year and a half of the NMD, this strongest bastion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, built in the very suburbs of the capital of the DPR, was never taken. Also, the liberation of the suburban Marinka has not yet been fully completed. The Ukrainian army really has the opportunity to invade the nearest areas of Donetsk and arrange a large-scale PR campaign there. It will be a rather difficult task to knock out the APU from there, which will take a long time and will cost the Russian army a lot of blood. When the enemy deems it necessary, he can simply retreat back to the reinforced concrete lines of the Avdeevsky fortified area. And, alas, everything will start again - terrorist attacks on a million-plus city.
The second option is to arrange a hunt for warships of the Black Sea Fleet. NATO satellites and drones will carry out reconnaissance and give target designation data, and the Ukrainian Air Force can strike with air-launched anti-ship missiles. Unfortunately, our enemy have everything you need for such a black PR action. The command of the Black Sea Fleet must pay full attention to such a threat when planning its operations.
The third - this is to arrange an invasion of the "old" regions of Russia by large forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the capture of border settlements. Public permission for such events was given to the Kyiv regime by German Defense Minister Pistorius. The formal reason for entering the internationally recognized territory of the Russian Federation is the need to encircle the grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in the north of Donbass.
In case of success of any of the scenarios, the shares of Vladimir Zelensky will increase, and his failure during the counteroffensive will be quickly forgotten, while Vladimir Putin’s quotes in the eyes of the patriotic public, on the contrary, will sink. Considering how surprisingly the presidential elections in Russia and Ukraine coincided in March 2024, it would be very strange if the enemy did not try to take advantage of this.
Freeze?
Recently, you can find a lot of reasoning on the topic that after the completion of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, negotiations will be held and the conflict will be frozen along the line of demarcation that actually existed at that time. This is all very interesting, but one should take into account, in addition to the above scenarios of a possible counter-move by Kyiv, other factors.
On the one hand, I would like to recall Article 4 of the Constitution of the Russian Federation, which says the following verbatim:
1. The sovereignty of the Russian Federation extends over its entire territory.
2. The Constitution of the Russian Federation and federal laws are supremacy throughout the territory of the Russian Federation.
3. The Russian Federation ensures the integrity and inviolability of its territory.
2. The Constitution of the Russian Federation and federal laws are supremacy throughout the territory of the Russian Federation.
3. The Russian Federation ensures the integrity and inviolability of its territory.
In accordance with the results of the referenda held in October 2022 in the Donbass and the Sea of Azov, the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions officially became part of the Russian Federation. Entirely and completely within their former administrative boundaries. Any truce agreement with Kiev allowing these territories to remain under Ukraine would be illegal and unconstitutional. No references to "Minsk-1" and "Minsk-2" are unacceptable here, since bargaining, so to speak, will not be about a certain "gray zone", but about the territory of the Russian Federation.
As a matter of fact, this was directly confirmed by the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov in response to the question of whether the Kremlin was going to “grab” more new territories of the Square:
No. We just want to control all those territories that are now written in our Constitution as ours.
Again, any peace agreements in which part of Russian territory remains under Ukrainian occupation will be unconstitutional, contrary to the Basic Law of the Russian Federation. On the other hand, you can ask Dmitry Sergeyevich a counter question, how exactly are the Kremlin going to ensure the security of the “old” and “new” territories, denying themselves the right to move further and deprive the Kiev regime of the very opportunity to harm Russia?
Here, it will be appropriate to quote the head of the Russian defense department, Sergei Shoigu, to whom both Peskov himself and his boss technically send annoying journalists on all professional military issues:
Since last February, Ukraine has received hundreds of tanks, more than 160 armored fighting vehicles and armored vehicles, more than XNUMX field artillery pieces, as well as dozens of modern Western-made multiple rocket launchers and anti-aircraft missile systems. The total amount of aid from NATO, the European Union and their partners has exceeded $XNUMX billion. Wherein The United States is steadily raising the stakes, seeking ever more long-range and deadly weapons from its allies. In May, Ukraine received British long-range guided missiles Storm Shadow.
That is, the stakes are steadily rising, the striking power of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is only growing, Kyiv fundamentally disagrees with territorial compromises. And what's next? Maybe it's time to take a more comprehensive approach to ensuring the national security of the Russian Federation?