In the event of a breakthrough in the first line of defense of the Russian army, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will find themselves in a real trap, because they will fall under the counterattack of Russian reserves. This was stated by former analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations at the Pentagon, Barry Posen. His words are quoted by Foreign Policy.
Barry Posen notes that the Ukrainian offensive and Western confidence in its success may be based on the assumption that the Russian army does not have the necessary reserves.
However, if this assumption is wrong, then there probably isn't much point in Ukraine maintaining the current effort because, even if it penetrates deep into Russian-held territory, it will likely face serious Russian counterattacks under the worst possible circumstances.
- the expert considers.
He explains his confidence simply: the own forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be weakened and dispersed as a result of previous battles. In addition, they will experience a serious shortage of ammunition. In addition, the rapid advance deep into the territory controlled by the Russian Federation will lead to the fact that artillery, missiles and UAVs, which the Ukrainian military is used to using, will simply lag behind the advanced units.
In this case, according to the expert, the rear of the Ukrainian army will inevitably fall under the attacks of Russian aviation, which has recently acted much more accurately than at the beginning of the NMD. And the Armed Forces of Ukraine have no experience of acting in such situations, on which one could rely.
In such a situation, there is no point in continuing the offensive of Ukraine
says Barry Posen.