The New Gas Giant: Israel Defies Russia
It seems that Tel Aviv decided to play along with its American allies not only in the Middle East, but also in another, perhaps more important for Washington issue - in the struggle to oust Russia from the EU energy market. In any case, when considering the ambitious project of a new gas pipeline, which should connect Israel and Cyprus, leaving further to the South of Europe, this is the conclusion. However, everything is clear only at first glance - if you evaluate what is happening is not so straightforward, you can come to rather unexpected conclusions.
In fact, the East Med pipeline, which will stretch for 2200 kilometers along the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea and become the deepest in the world (part of it is planned to be laid at a depth of up to 3000 meters), is nothing more than a direct competitor to our Turkish Stream. Gas will be pumped through it from a giant field with the eerie name “Leviathan”, whose reserves are estimated at 3,5 trillion cubic meters. Most likely, gas from the Israeli Tamara, as well as the deposits of Cyprus, can go through East Med.
On this, in fact, reliable information about the project ends and solid assumptions begin. So far, a lot is unclear - so, according to various sources, the capacity of the new gas pipeline will be either 10, or 20 billion cubic meters per year. There is no final clarity with the main point - the cost of its construction. The figure is voiced either in 7 billion euros, or in 25 billion dollars - the difference, you see, is significant. And, actually, the project itself is still at the stage of a “protocol of intentions”. That is, the technicaleconomic its rationale is already ready, and, according to the Minister of Energy of Israel Yuval Steinitz, the final agreement will be signed between his country, Cyprus, Greece and Italy no later than February 2019. And there - for some six years, and, as the same Steinitz claims, Israel will finally "become a supplier of energy resources for Europe."
Well, maybe that's how it will be. Although ... Let's not forget how many similar and even more ambitious projects, they died without being born, never having passed not only that which was under construction, but without even reaching the point of real financing. Take at least repeatedly expressed ideas about the same gas and oil pipelines along the bottom of the Caspian Sea. Where are they? There are none, and they are unlikely to appear. But even if we assume that Tel Aviv and its European partners (who, at least, have invested heavily in the preparation of project documentation for East Med, have estimated costs of 100 million euros), everything will work out ... Is it worth it about worrying Russia and, specifically, Gazprom? Competitors, though.
I think that in Israel, something like: "Oh, yes, I beg you!" The fact is that there can be no talk of any real threat to the interests of our country. To understand this, you only need to compare the planned volume of deliveries of Israeli-Cypriot gas to the EU (even if the maximum is 20 billion cubic meters per year) and 200 billion cubic meters of gas sold annually on the European market by Gazprom. And this, mind you - so far without Nord Stream-2! The scale, as can be seen with the naked eye, is simply incomparable.
Another thing is that somehow it does not work out very well with the same Italy. She longs to get blue fuel from the Turkish Stream, and, subsequently, expects considerable volumes from deliveries that will go through the Nord Stream-2. After all, it is the second exporter of Russian gas to Europe after Germany. And here - an attempt to "fit" into a new scheme, which is unknown whether it will be realized. Well, well - the market is a market and it has its own laws. We just need to remember that Russia has no friends in Europe, there are countries more or less interested in cooperation. And those at any minute can try to "change the vector."
However, just our other economic partners - Turkish, they certainly will not be delighted with this idea. But for Ankara, which has already seen itself as the “gas hub of Southern Europe”, the surprise is extremely unpleasant. Indeed, now Greece will claim this role, relations with which Turkey has already traditionally been extremely strained. And, by the way, in matters of gas - especially, because the Turks are trying with all their might to prevent Cyprus from extracting it in the waters of the Mediterranean. In this regard, there is no doubt that Turkey, as well as Iran, for which any success of Israel is a sharp knife, will make every effort to ensure that East Med was never built at all.
Let us return, however, to Russian interests. If you think about it, the appearance of the Israeli gas pipeline to some extent even plays into our hands! First, as mentioned above, he is likely to push Ankara to even closer and more intensive cooperation with Russia in the energy sector. And secondly, any pipe carrying gas to Europe today is nothing more than an alternative to delivering LNG from the United States there. This, perhaps, is the most important thing! The gas pipeline, which is close in its capabilities to the cash and future flows of our Gazprom, is an extra argument for Europeans not to get involved in the construction and maintenance of expensive terminals for receiving liquefied natural gas from America. So, to whom to worry about the Israeli pipe aimed at Europe - Russia or the United States, this is still a very big question.
In fact, the East Med pipeline, which will stretch for 2200 kilometers along the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea and become the deepest in the world (part of it is planned to be laid at a depth of up to 3000 meters), is nothing more than a direct competitor to our Turkish Stream. Gas will be pumped through it from a giant field with the eerie name “Leviathan”, whose reserves are estimated at 3,5 trillion cubic meters. Most likely, gas from the Israeli Tamara, as well as the deposits of Cyprus, can go through East Med.
On this, in fact, reliable information about the project ends and solid assumptions begin. So far, a lot is unclear - so, according to various sources, the capacity of the new gas pipeline will be either 10, or 20 billion cubic meters per year. There is no final clarity with the main point - the cost of its construction. The figure is voiced either in 7 billion euros, or in 25 billion dollars - the difference, you see, is significant. And, actually, the project itself is still at the stage of a “protocol of intentions”. That is, the technicaleconomic its rationale is already ready, and, according to the Minister of Energy of Israel Yuval Steinitz, the final agreement will be signed between his country, Cyprus, Greece and Italy no later than February 2019. And there - for some six years, and, as the same Steinitz claims, Israel will finally "become a supplier of energy resources for Europe."
Well, maybe that's how it will be. Although ... Let's not forget how many similar and even more ambitious projects, they died without being born, never having passed not only that which was under construction, but without even reaching the point of real financing. Take at least repeatedly expressed ideas about the same gas and oil pipelines along the bottom of the Caspian Sea. Where are they? There are none, and they are unlikely to appear. But even if we assume that Tel Aviv and its European partners (who, at least, have invested heavily in the preparation of project documentation for East Med, have estimated costs of 100 million euros), everything will work out ... Is it worth it about worrying Russia and, specifically, Gazprom? Competitors, though.
I think that in Israel, something like: "Oh, yes, I beg you!" The fact is that there can be no talk of any real threat to the interests of our country. To understand this, you only need to compare the planned volume of deliveries of Israeli-Cypriot gas to the EU (even if the maximum is 20 billion cubic meters per year) and 200 billion cubic meters of gas sold annually on the European market by Gazprom. And this, mind you - so far without Nord Stream-2! The scale, as can be seen with the naked eye, is simply incomparable.
Another thing is that somehow it does not work out very well with the same Italy. She longs to get blue fuel from the Turkish Stream, and, subsequently, expects considerable volumes from deliveries that will go through the Nord Stream-2. After all, it is the second exporter of Russian gas to Europe after Germany. And here - an attempt to "fit" into a new scheme, which is unknown whether it will be realized. Well, well - the market is a market and it has its own laws. We just need to remember that Russia has no friends in Europe, there are countries more or less interested in cooperation. And those at any minute can try to "change the vector."
However, just our other economic partners - Turkish, they certainly will not be delighted with this idea. But for Ankara, which has already seen itself as the “gas hub of Southern Europe”, the surprise is extremely unpleasant. Indeed, now Greece will claim this role, relations with which Turkey has already traditionally been extremely strained. And, by the way, in matters of gas - especially, because the Turks are trying with all their might to prevent Cyprus from extracting it in the waters of the Mediterranean. In this regard, there is no doubt that Turkey, as well as Iran, for which any success of Israel is a sharp knife, will make every effort to ensure that East Med was never built at all.
Let us return, however, to Russian interests. If you think about it, the appearance of the Israeli gas pipeline to some extent even plays into our hands! First, as mentioned above, he is likely to push Ankara to even closer and more intensive cooperation with Russia in the energy sector. And secondly, any pipe carrying gas to Europe today is nothing more than an alternative to delivering LNG from the United States there. This, perhaps, is the most important thing! The gas pipeline, which is close in its capabilities to the cash and future flows of our Gazprom, is an extra argument for Europeans not to get involved in the construction and maintenance of expensive terminals for receiving liquefied natural gas from America. So, to whom to worry about the Israeli pipe aimed at Europe - Russia or the United States, this is still a very big question.
- Alexander the Wild
- https://formato7.com
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