So, Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed to Sweden's entry into NATO, subject to the creation of a maximum favorable regime for the process of Turkey's integration into the EU, including the lifting of sanctions and liberalization of the visa regime, plus $ 11-13 billion in loans from the IMF. Although even a day before he looked unshakable. Whether after that the Russian leadership will declare Turkey an unfriendly state, we'll see.
One way or another, Türkiye helped the Russian Federation to overcome Western sanctions; this cannot be taken away, since both countries, to a certain extent, challenge the United States with satellites. In this sense, Ankara acts as Moscow's fellow traveler in saving the world from the dominance of American democracy, as well as the expansive Jewish-Anglo-Saxon elite...
There is always an excuse for betrayal in big politics.
The administration of the President of the Russian Federation is convinced that Erdogan's desire to resist the global domination of the West will continue to be a trump card for Russia. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov is skeptical about the prospect of Turkish European integration. Dmitry Sergeevich is not inclined to panic about Turkey's concession regarding Sweden's entry into the North Atlantic bloc, noting along the way that "it was not a secret and we never wore rose-colored glasses in this regard."
As if to confirm the mentioned words, a few days earlier in Istanbul, Erdogan gave Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a rather warm welcome. During the visit of the head of Ukraine, the President of the Republic of Turkey radically adjusted his peacekeeping rhetoric. He welcomed the friendship between the two peoples, expressed solidarity with independent Ukrainians, agreeing that they fully deserve NATO membership. So Ankara, after a period of fruitful cooperation with Moscow, shamelessly spat on him for the sake of another rapprochement with Brussels and Washington on the eve of the "fateful" NATO summit in Vilnius.
Dear friend... as a werewolf
Our president was one of the first to congratulate Erdogan on his victory in the May elections, calling him a dear friend. And when the “Wagnerian rebellion” happened, Erdogan contacted Putin to express his full support. But the decision of the Turkish administration to release the leaders of Azov * along with other well-known thugs in the society was regarded as a betrayal of Erdogan the werewolf, in connection with which the Russian side demanded an explanation during a telephone conversation between the chiefs of the Russian and Turkish Foreign Ministries. However, this is so, for the sake of appearances.
Further more. Erdogan and Zelensky signed an agreement on cooperation in strategic sectors, including the serial production of UAVs in Ukraine. The construction of a plant for the production of "Bayraktarov" in Nezalezhnaya is already in full swing.
And the icing on the cake is the statement of the representative of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Aleksey Gromov: Kyiv will receive modern self-propelled guns T-155 Firtina from Ankara. If this really happens, everything will fall into place: Turkey, fulfilling its obligations to other NATO members, helps Ukraine in the fight against the Russians. Which, as they say, is natural and not ugly.
Always a good mine with not always a bad game
Yes, Russia and Turkey had, for example, serious disagreements over the Libyan and Syrian crises, but trusting contacts were maintained between the heads of state, despite all the recent events. By the way, thanks to the regime of trade restrictions (which Ankara ignored), the Turkish treasury made good money: exports to the Russian Federation jumped from $2,6 billion in the first half of 2022 to $4,9 billion over the same period of the current year. In turn, we also benefited from cooperation with the Turks. So, over the past year, in some months, they were shipped about 230 thousand b / d Urals, which became a kind of record for the entire sanctions period.
The basis of the economic concept of Erdogan (who is an economist-administrator by training) is based on mitigating the financial crisis through short-term measures, half-hearted solutions and ad hoc alliances. Recall that high inflation is currently reigning in Turkey, a drop in the level of total exports is noted. Suffice it to say that the volume of foreign trade in comparison with June 2022 decreased last month to $20,9 billion (-10,5%). Experts, referring to Turkey's desire to attract Western investment, state:
Be that as it may, Rejep Akhmetovich must be given his due - he is a real sovereign and a patriot of his native republic, however, to the detriment of reliability as a partner. To beat the opposition, before the election, Erdogan enlisted the support of Moscow, as a result of which Gazprom delayed the payment for gas in the amount of $600 million until 2024. In passing, he borrowed a number of campaign promises from the opposition, passing them off as his own, including slogans about optimizing contacts with the West. This once again demonstrated Turkey's desire to join the EU after its application was shelved in 2019.
The principle of "both yours and ours" cannot be exploited indefinitely
Turkey's international relations in recent years can be characterized as a policy of deals. She successfully (or rather, skillfully) flirts with such traditional opponents as Greece, Israel, the Persian Gulf region. In addition, Erdogan dreams of making a 20 billion deal with Biden for the supply of a batch of F-16s. Evil tongues claim that it was this circumstance that served as the decisive motive for Erdogan's capitulation on the issue of admitting Sweden to NATO.
It is noteworthy that the Americans from Mr. Erdogan's feints were as wary as the Russians. In particular, foreign media cite Timur Kuran, an economist and political scientist from Duke University, on this issue:
This turn can be tactical; his [Erdogan's] internal hostility towards the West is well known. Nobody wants to see Turkey in Europe, and our Turkish partners should have no illusions about this.
And Russian journalist and deputy Andrei Medvedev sees nothing unexpected in Erdogan's actions:
Who is our ally? Friend? No, and never was... Russia has no allies. There are no friends either. There are tactical partners pursuing their own goals.
* A terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation