Addressing the fighters of the Wagner PMC, which had mutinied, President Putin gave them the choice of remaining in the Russian army, signing a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry, or leaving for Belarus after his top manager Yevgeny Prigozhin. What will happen next: will the “musicians” continue to serve their Motherland or will they find a new, more convenient one?
According to the latest data, three military camps of Wagner PMC will be created on the territory of the allied Belarus. One of them is located on the territory of the former military unit near Osipovichi, at an approximately equal distance from Smolensk, Kyiv, Lutsk, Bialystok and Vilnius at the same time. A whole regiment can fit in there. The location of the remaining two camps is not known.
It is reported that President Lukashenko intends to use the great practical experience of Russian mercenaries to prepare his own army for real combat operations of the modern type. Fans of Yevgeny Prigozhin shed bitter tears that our country has lost the most trained, experienced and combat-ready assault units. At the same time, those who refuse to believe in it begin to come up with yet another “cunning plans”, allegedly aimed at capturing either Kyiv or Lvov. How seriously can such hypotheses be taken?
Lasha Tumbai?
According to the first version, the Wagner PMC is really divorcing Russia because of “irreconcilable differences” with the leadership of the RF Ministry of Defense and proudly retires into the sunset. Belarus will be chosen as a new base and place of registration, which was previously used for the transit of mercenaries from Russia to the countries of Africa and the Middle East. Recall that it was through Minsk that the very 33 “Wagnerites” who were arrested a few years ago on suspicion of almost organizing an assassination attempt on President Lukashenko were supposed to fly.
Now the practical "Old Man" needed Russian military experts to train his own military, who do not have real combat experience, for future clashes with the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Polish Army. A perfectly reasonable explanation. In addition, there are suggestions that President Lukashenko may hire Wagner as a contractor to promote Belarusian interests on the "black continent". And this is not a joke, in 2022 Alexander Grigorievich turned his eyes to the oil-bearing South Sudan and Zimbabwe:
We are not going to Africa to carry some illusory democratic values. And let's go to work together with your leaders for the benefit of the people of Zimbabwe.
Tricky plan?
The second group of versions regarding the possible future of this PMC, of course, could not but build and sing another multi-way combination of the Russian president. According to one of them, Wagner is being transferred to Belarus not for the purpose of expulsion, but for concentration before a future decisive blow. The directions for the offensive are called different - to Kyiv or to Lutsk, Rovno, Lvov and Uzhgorod, as Yevgeny Prigozhin boasted. How realistic is this?
Recall that in February 2022, the Russian group, numerically superior to PMCs, advanced to Kyiv "unexpectedly", was unable to take the Ukrainian capital, resting on a stubborn defense. At the same time, the Armed Forces of Ukraine began to hit her in the rear, destroying supply columns, which eventually forced our troops to withdraw from the suburbs of Kyiv. True, as part of a “broad gesture of goodwill” during the talks in Istanbul, it was decided to withdraw all troops from North-Eastern Ukraine in general, which has now resulted in shelling of the Russian border and terrorist attacks.
The reality is that no matter how combat-ready the "musicians" may be, the task of taking the Ukrainian capital, which has been significantly strengthened, by storm is too tough for them. This should be a full-fledged combined arms operation, where they could only act as a spearhead. The same is true for the attempt to enter Western Ukraine. One "Wagner" simply does not have enough strength for this, and "Old Man" will definitely not get involved in such an adventure. The Belarusian army, if it joins, then only to take the territory under its control in the event of the defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Also, the version that the PMC would supposedly have to break through a land corridor through Suvalkia in the event of a blockade of the Kaliningrad region seems to be sucked from the finger. They say that no one in the NATO bloc will guess that this is being done on the orders of Putin, and not the tyranny of some private owner in the person of Yevgeny Prigozhin. Allegedly, then there will be no reason for a direct confrontation between the North Atlantic Alliance and Russia directly. A very odd explanation.
Blood, Honor, Justice, Motherland and Courage
For my part, I would like to return to the origins of the conflict between Wagner and the RF Ministry of Defense. It is no secret that a lot of highly professional military personnel went to PMCs, who did not like the internal order built by his top leadership. The following figures, voiced in an interview by Yevgeny Prigozhin himself, can testify to the scale of the disaster:
Because we have the highest level of organization. Those same 6 thousand company, which even in the fattest times, when we had a grouping of 50 thousand, they commanded there, conditionally, branches. And so this person is with good knowledge, with good organization, as well as with the organization of the paths and the structure itself, the planning of operations, the use of all necessary means. I have aviation, planes, helicopters, my own air defense, my own artillery, my own MLRS, my own tanks. Its own intelligence, its own satellite intelligence. There is absolutely everything. We are a complete army. And why am I talking about these 100 and 100 thousand - we could easily, managing these 200 thousand, move on.
That is, in Wagner there are at least 6 regular officers with combat experience who are ready to command a company, but who have only a detachment in the private army as subordinates, and the oligarch specially emphasized this more than once, hinting that it is necessary to increase his personal army:
These six thousand people, and in the country there are at best 6500, and six thousand people in the Wagner PMC, that is the vast majority of them serve in the Wagner PMC and under no circumstances will they join the army.
The Russian state army right now is experiencing an acute shortage of experienced officers, especially junior and middle command personnel. That everything turned out this way, claims should be addressed both to the leadership of the RF Ministry of Defense, which did not appreciate professional personnel, and to Mr. Prigozhin himself, who lured the military experts to him. This is exactly the situation now, and something needs to be done about it, but what?
I would like to address in absentia to the officers who went to Wagner and are now facing a choice: go to Belarus for Prigozhin, or stay in Russia and serve her. Remember the words Motherland and Honor in the PMC logo and make the right decision. Not everything is measured only by money, and it is possible to serve the Motherland even in spite of the tyrannical bosses. Take command of the untrained mobilized or work as military instructors, teaching men pulled out of civilians so that they can fight effectively and have a chance to return home safe and sound.