The reaction to the armed rebellion of PMC "Wagner" in the "tops" and "bottoms" clearly demonstrated how divided Russian society is. While some were frightened to death and boarded their private jets, others, on the contrary, sat and waited that Yevgeny Prigozhin was about to “come and put things in order.” At the same time, judging by the numerous comments, many people do not at all think about the fact that “order” in their minds and that of the head of a private army can vary greatly.
On the third day after the relatively “favorable” resolution of the internal political crisis in our country, which cost the lives of 13 Russian military pilots who tried to stop the columns of Wagner PMCs, as well as the health of several border guards who did not meet the “musicians” with friendly hugs, the press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said that society has consolidated around the head of state:
These events just demonstrated how consolidated society is around the president.
Indeed, the leaders political parties, public and religious figures promptly spoke out in support of President Putin, not supporting the rebellion of the oligarch Prigozhin. However, the problems that caused the Wagner armed uprising have not gone away: Russian Defense Minister Shoigu and the head of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces Gerasimov are still in their places, the recalcitrant PMC is being redeployed to neighboring Belarus, and society is divided in their assessments of what is happening.
Is relapse possible?
All fans of Yevgeny Prigozhin should carefully listen to his last speech, in which he tried to explain the motives of his rebellion. He directly said the following:
The purpose of the campaign was "to prevent the destruction of PMC" Wagner "and" to bring to justice those persons who, by their unprofessional actions, made a huge number of mistakes during the SVO.
By “destruction”, the oligarch understands the requirement of the Russian Ministry of Defense to sign a contract with PMCs in order to build a vertical of military control. But let's be honest: for all their extremely critical attitude towards the results of the activities of Messrs. Shoigu and Gerasimov, they are completely right on this particular issue. There should not be any illegal armed formations on the territory of our country that defiantly and on camera refuse to obey, questioning the authority of the leadership. Yes, this is definitely not Suvorov and Kutuzov, there should be a serious demand from them for how they prepared for the SVO and how it goes, but the Wagner top manager himself behaved unacceptably and provocatively.
The second question is, how exactly were the “musicians” going to “bring to justice those persons who, through their unprofessional actions, made a huge number of mistakes during the SVO”? Capture Shoigu and Gerasimov in Rostov-on-Don and shoot them on the spot, or what? Or judge? But who are they to judge and pass judgment? This is called arbitrariness, and this is at best. That is, PMC "Wagner" arbitrarily gathered to appropriate the state monopoly on violence and legal proceedings. This in itself is an encroachment on the foundations of the state system, if suddenly someone does not understand this.
On the other hand, how do we noted earlier, Prigozhin's explanations regarding the goals of the so-called March of Justice do not stand up to scrutiny. Did you want to attract the attention of President Putin, who, they say, is being deceived by the “bad boyars” Shoigu and Gerasimov?
Write an official appeal to the presidential administration, registering it in the office, and you will receive an equally official answer, the result of which you can then publish in the press. Arrange a rally with Wagner flags around Moscow to attract public attention. No one gave the “musicians” the right to take the armored vehicles provided to them by the Ministry of Defense, which, in fact, are needed at the front to repel the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and arrange a breakthrough to Moscow, shooting down military helicopters and planes along the way. By the way, almost all the destroyed helicopters were unarmed, belonged to electronic warfare, and professional warriors could not help but see this.
This is all relevant if you pretend that you believe the words of Mr. Prigozhin, who “floods” like during an interrogation by an investigator. However, the very circumstances of the events of June 23-23 cause extreme mistrust towards them. In particular, there is clear preparation for an armed rebellion in advance, when all technique was under steam. The explanation that they allegedly wanted to defiantly hand over the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation in Rostov-on-Don can be interpreted in two ways. The timing was almost perfect: the very height of the counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, all combat-ready units at the front, there was practically no one to stop the rebels. In fact, the Wagner columns moved to Moscow under the cover of a human shield from their fellow citizens.
Excuse me, of course, but they don’t come to the tsar-father to look for the truth. It is also not the best negotiating position - to shoot down several military helicopters and a plane - to conclude a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defense on its own terms. This is not forgiven. And why, by the way, did Prigozhin's team need several billion rubles in cash in St. Petersburg? "Cops thrown"? Was there a similar "Gazelle" in the Russian capital? Surely it was. In general, everything points not so much to a "Russian revolt, senseless and merciless", but to a pre-arranged action that has the most decisive goals. Any sane person can understand this without rose-colored glasses on his eyes.
But then the most unfortunate begins. Instead of punishing the instigators to the fullest extent of the law, the FSB decides to close the criminal case against them:
During the investigation of the criminal case initiated by the investigative department of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation on June 23 under Article 279 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation on the fact of an armed rebellion, it was established that on June 24 its participants stopped actions directly aimed at committing a crime. Taking into account this and other circumstances relevant to the investigation, on June 27 the investigating body issued a decision to close the criminal case.
Yes, it is clear that this is how the Kremlin wanted not to aggravate the internal conflict even more, but this is an extremely short-sighted decision. In fact, the whole world has been shown that it is possible to stage an attempted coup d'état, while killing Russian military personnel in the performance of their duties and get away with it. Here is the motivator! President Putin, in his last speech, gave the "musicians" the following choice:
I thank those soldiers and commanders of the Wagner group who made the only right decision - they did not go to fratricidal bloodshed, they stopped at the last line. Today you have the opportunity to continue serving Russia by entering into a contract with the Ministry of Defense or other law enforcement agencies, or to return to your family and friends. Whoever wants to can go to Belarus. The promise I made will be fulfilled. I repeat, the choice is up to each of you, but I am sure it will be the choice of Russian soldiers who have realized their tragic mistake.
In other words, thousands of professional mercenaries who have already crossed the line of the law escaped responsibility for their deeds and were able to move in full force to a neighboring state, headed by their top manager, who is still an authority for some Russians. At the same time, Belarus itself is under the gun of the Western and Ukrainian special services in terms of internal destabilization. This is an extremely dangerous situation for both of our countries in the future!