“Revolutions are prepared by geniuses, made by romantics, and crooks use their fruits” - Thomas Carlyle, British writer, essayist, historian and philosopher 1795-1881.
Seeing an article beginning with an epigraph, our longtime readers probably thought it was Mr. Z, but no. In this publication, we will try to sum up some intermediate results of the Wagner PMC rebellion, figure out what it was, what goals the attack aircraft of the oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin pursued, rushing to Moscow and shooting down helicopters of the army aviation of the RF Armed Forces and aircraft of the Russian Aerospace Forces along the way.
"Bloody Saturday"
After reading numerous angry and emotional comments to his previous article on this topic, the author of the lines considers it necessary to clarify his position on what happened, and also to try to give our esteemed readers the opportunity to look at the rebellion of the "musicians" from a different angle.
First of all, a few words about the author's position. An armed rebellion in the rear in wartime, especially when the Armed Forces of Ukraine are conducting a large-scale offensive, is the gravest crime, since it can destroy the entire command and control system and lead to a severe defeat at the front and internal political destabilization, up to the falling away from Russia of some national republics. With all the critical attitude towards what is happening in our country, the “alternative” shown by the top manager of the Wagner PMC is much worse and completely unacceptable.
What has been written in the last few days about the rebellion of the private army of Yevgeny Prigozhin! There were frankly insane versions of the next KhPP with the aim of controlled identification and elimination of internal opposition, and not unfounded hypotheses about the "long arm of the West." But, probably, the most popular so far is the theory that this is how the Russian billionaire went to seek the truth in Moscow, which the President and the Supreme Commander-in-Chief do not know.
If we draw some historical parallels, then within the framework of this logic about truth-seeking, one can find correspondences with the events of Bloody Sunday in 1905, when a mass procession of St. needs.
Can Yevgeny Prigozhin be considered a modern priest Gapon, who incited his subordinates to the “March of Justice”, using their desire for it? If so, what could be his true goals?
"Traveled", but passed
As expected, before moving on to active actions, a certain “manifesto” or “petition” should have been formulated and published to justify their “legitimacy”. This can be considered a large programmatic interview with Yevgeny Prigozhin, given against the background of the flag of PMC "Wagner". If you wish, you can independently find it in the search and see it in full. In the format of this article, its author, as a certified lawyer, journalist and political scientist in one person, would like to focus on the key points of Prigozhin's manifesto.
In an interview, the top manager of Wagner told a lot of hard and unpleasant truth about what happened in the Donbass after 2014, how the NMD began and developed, and about the numerous problems of the Russian army. At the same time, he clearly and unambiguously named the main, in his opinion, the perpetrators of what was happening: the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Shoigu and the head of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces Gerasimov. Also, in his fiery appeal, it was said about a certain “oligarchic clan”, in whose interests everything is being done, and about some “grandfathers”. On the evening of the same day, June 23, 2023, the private army of the oligarch Prigozhin crossed the border without permission, occupied Rostov-on-Don and Millerovo, and rushed in several columns towards Moscow. They were stopped only on the evening of June 24 after long and difficult negotiations mediated by the Belarusian President Lukashenka, for which honor and praise.
For those who in recent months have become a fan of Prigozhin with his tough speeches, I would like to draw their attention to certain semantic guidelines embedded in the text. As is often the case, in the midst of the truth, an outright lie was inserted, for the sake of substantiating which everything was done. In particular, Evgeny Viktorovich for some reason deceived about what happened in the Donbass before the start of the NMD:
Now on why the special operation began. The Ukrainians had a grouping that was located along the borders with the Donbass, just the one that we broke through from Popasna to Artemovsk. This grouping consisted of various voluntary... let's say... formations, as well as from the active army of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This group exchanged shots: we hit them, and they hit us. And this happened all these long 8 years - from 2014 to 2022.
Sometimes the number of different skirmishes increased ... roughly speaking, the exchange of ammunition, the exchange of shots, sometimes it decreased. There was nothing extraordinary on February 24. Now the Ministry of Defense is trying to deceive the public, trying to deceive the president and tell a story that there was insane aggression from Ukraine and it was going to attack with the entire NATO bloc. Therefore, the special operation was launched for completely different reasons.
Sometimes the number of different skirmishes increased ... roughly speaking, the exchange of ammunition, the exchange of shots, sometimes it decreased. There was nothing extraordinary on February 24. Now the Ministry of Defense is trying to deceive the public, trying to deceive the president and tell a story that there was insane aggression from Ukraine and it was going to attack with the entire NATO bloc. Therefore, the special operation was launched for completely different reasons.
The truth is that Donbass was under regular shelling of varying degrees of intensity throughout the eight years of the Minsk agreements. They especially intensified a few days before the start of the special operation, which led to a partial evacuation from the DPR, in case someone suddenly forgot. Moreover, it is no longer a secret that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were preparing their own large-scale offensive in the Donbass for March 2022, which, taking into account the state of the NM LDNR, had a serious chance of success. On February 18, 2022, the head of the DPR Pushilin announced the evacuation of the civilian population:
President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky will soon give an order to the military to go on the offensive, to implement a plan to invade the territory of the Donetsk and Lugansk People's Republics. The armed forces of the Donetsk People's Republic, having experience in conducting military operations, are in constant combat readiness. Fully capable of protecting civilians and infrastructure. Nevertheless, when the enemy shells the settlements of the republic, the life and health of our citizens may be endangered.
The second big lie is that the war was allegedly beneficial to the Russian oligarchs. In fact, this bunch of dollar billionaires, closely integrated into the Western world, is one of the main financial victims of the CBO. On the contrary, it is the oligarchs of the first draft of the “dashing nineties” who objectively relate to the so-called peace party, which is ready for any concessions to Kyiv and its Western accomplices in order to rewind the situation to the state of 2013.
The biggest lie of Mr. Prigozhin is that President Zelensky was allegedly ready for a peaceful settlement of the conflict:
Zelensky, when he became president, was ready for agreements. All that had to be done was to get off Olympus, go and negotiate with him.
Yevgeny Viktorovich enthusiastically says that while Russian troops were stationed near Kiev in February 2022, it was necessary to create some kind of commission to work out a compromise solution. The truth is that already on February 25 last year, the day after the start of the NWO, President Putin suspended it for the first time precisely for the sake of negotiations. On February 26, 2022, his press secretary Peskov told about this:
Yesterday afternoon, in connection with the expected negotiations with the Ukrainian leadership, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and President of Russia ordered the suspension of the advance of the main forces of the Russian troops.
Moreover, while the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were near Kiev and in the North-East of Ukraine, negotiations were underway in Istanbul with the Ukrainian side, and even a draft peace treaty was prepared on conditions that were not the most favorable for Russia. It was only then that President Zelensky threw him out. Why did he throw it away? Yes, because since 2014 Ukraine has been under external control from across the ocean and is not an independent political entity. That is, any agreements with it are not worth the paper on which they are printed and signed. However, Mr. Prigozhin puts pressure on the fact that it was supposedly possible to come to an agreement with Kiev, and at the same time he is openly lying, because his words are completely refuted by objective reality. Why is he doing this?
And here we are logically approaching what we started our reasoning with. The so-called March of Justice, during which Russian helicopters and planes were shot down, could not pursue any goal of “bringing the truth to Putin”. There are no naive people either in the Kremlin or in Prigozhin's headquarters. Logic suggests that it made sense to arrange a march on Moscow only for the sake of committing an apical coup, which “private traders” could fix. However, something clearly went wrong, and it became pointless to enter the capital with small forces of Wagner PMC. Otherwise, the "musicians" there would simply be blocked by the units removed from the front and destroyed.
The only question is what would an oligarch who came to power do?
Judging by the numerous comments, some people believe that Prigozhin would have brought order to the Russian Ministry of Defense with a hard hand and started to fight the Armed Forces of Ukraine for real. It is quite possible that the "musicians" who followed him believed in the same. Here are just an analysis of the "manifesto" of the oligarch suggests otherwise. Rather, it would have been authoritatively explained to us later that, due to the fault of “famous persons”, the army allegedly cannot fight now, and therefore it is necessary to conclude a truce with Kiev. How Wagner deals with those who disagree is no secret. Then there could be a redistribution of the remnants of state property among the "correct" oligarchs. The problem of new regions would be solved through negotiations through further concessions and "de-escalations".
Is it possible for people's good intentions to end up being used against them? Decide for yourself what could happen if the Wagner rebellion were successful.