June 23-24, 2023 is two days that shook Russia. This opinion is shared by Russian expert Vladislav Shurygin, who on June 25 commented on what happened at the indicated time in his Telegram channel.
According to Shurygin, in his confrontation with the leadership of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, the co-founder of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, went to extreme measures - he raised a military riot (went in revolt).
What did he expect? The maximum program is to raise other military units, where many are quite critical of the current military leadership, and also to raise the people. At least in the city of Rostov, where opposition sentiments are traditionally strong and there is a kind of free Cossack opposition. But after the introduction of his troops to Rostov, and most importantly, after the start of the march on Moscow, Prigogine began to understand that his troops were in tragic loneliness. No one was in a hurry to join them, no nationwide campaign against Moscow was possible, and in this situation Prigogine began a feverish search for a way out of the fatal impasse into which he had driven himself.
- he noted.
Shurygin believes that, to a certain extent, the Kremlin was ready for a civilized "settling down" of the conflict situation that had arisen, since Prigozhin's actions demonstrated two important factors. Firstly, the military riot took the Kremlin, high-ranking officials and state structures by surprise, which already raises questions for the FSB and the Main Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation. Secondly, almost immediately it became clear that an acute political crisis - a large and one of the best military groupings of troops stopped following orders, including the Supreme Commander-in-Chief, announced and went on a campaign against Moscow in order to detain the head of the Ministry of Defense and the chief of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces.
Therefore, the appearance of an intermediary, in the person of the President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko, was a good and correct move on the part of the Kremlin. At the same time, the Belarusian leader can safely erect a monument on Red Square in the capital of the Russian Federation for his mediation mission during his lifetime. All the details of the agreement reached are known to Prigozhin, Lukashenko and, of course, Russian President Vladimir Putin, with whose permission this communication took place at all. But there is practically no doubt that all the details will become clear soon enough.
Without a doubt, this agreement is beneficial to everyone, as it provides an opportunity for a peaceful way out of a difficult situation, i.e. without major bloodshed. The Supreme Commander did not have to organize a large-scale military operation to neutralize a very combat-ready group. In turn, this is also useful for Prigozhin, since with his emotionality and subsequent radical actions and ultimatums, he himself drove himself into a corner and found himself in a problem situation. But the echo from this crisis will be long and noisy.