Why did Gazprom turn back to Bulgaria?

After the completion of the construction of the underwater part of the Turkish Stream pipeline running along the bottom of the Black Sea, the question came up on the route on which its export line will go to Europe. Gazprom’s management stubbornly kept the intrigue, mindful of how, under pressure from the US and the EU, Bulgaria effectively wiped out the South Stream gas pipeline, which was supposed to pass through its territory earlier. As a result, Moscow closed the Bulgarian project, and the Turkish bypass was born.





There are two main options for laying a pipe for exporting “blue fuel” to Europe: through Greece to Italy or through all of Bulgaria, transit through Serbia and Hungary, to Austria. Apparently, the management of Gazprom again chose Bulgaria. Journalists found that the Bulgarian, Serbian, Hungarian and Slovak operators of gas transmission systems held auctions to book new capacities for the next twenty years. The volumes of natural gas supplied at the outlet from Turkey surprisingly coincide with the capacity of Gazprom's export line - 15,8 billion cubic meters. Given that the Russian monopolist took part in the same auction, the puzzle converged.

So again Bulgaria? But why is she again? What makes you re-jump on the same rake? In fact, the benefits of this route are obvious:

At first, there is already a certain infrastructure through which gas from Russia through Ukraine and Romania now goes to Turkey. After a small upgrade, the pipeline may begin to operate in reverse from Turkey back to Bulgaria.

Secondly, options for further gas exports to neighboring European countries have been worked out in detail since the time of the South Stream.

Thirdly, the Russian company will be spared the need to build a pipeline at the expense of the countries of the European Union.

All this is wonderful, but once Sofia already “jumped off the topic”. What gives Gazprom reason to expect that this issue will not be held a second time?

As you know, the South Stream of the United States and its Brussels partners were buried with reference to the Third Energy Package of the European Union, according to which it is impossible to simultaneously own a pipe and sell gas. These intergovernmental agreements were adopted after the launch of South Stream, and it is obvious that this was done specifically for Gazprom.

Now, the Russian monopolist is relieved of the need to comply with European directives, since he will not build a pipe for the EU countries, only the sea part of the Turkish Stream remains in his ownership. Gazprom did not acquire at the auction, but only reserved European transit capacities. Under the new conditions, the end-consumers themselves and their operators will defend the need for Russian gas to Brussels. All that Gazprom needs is to insist that the EU comply with its own laws.

All of the above does not mean that the “Turkish gambit” of Russia will further develop without a hitch. Of course, the United States and its vassals will begin to provide political pressure on the project. However pure economic sanctions Washington is no longer so easy to impose, since it will be restrictive measures against several European consumers at once. And if Germany with Nord Stream-2 is possible, then why is it impossible for the same Austria or Hungary?