The long-awaited counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been going on for several days and has finally been officially recognized by the Zelensky regime. At the same time, Kiev has no special reasons to rejoice, since the Ukrainian army has not yet shown any significant results, resting against a layered defense in the worst traditions of frontal assaults on Avdiivka. The roles have changed, and therefore it is very important to understand what can be expected from the neo-Nazis, whose systematic shelling of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station has already led to the flooding of almost half of the south of the former Nezalezhnaya.
let's go
Как уже noted Earlier, the creeping counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine began in May, when the enemy switched to the tactics of reconnaissance in small groups along a wide front line in order to identify weaknesses in our defense. The main blow at the moment was inflicted on the Zaporozhye direction in order to break through to the coast of the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and capture Berdyansk, Melitopol and, possibly, Mariupol, cutting off the land transport corridor to the Crimea. This attack, which had already turned into a heavy and bloody positional battle, was preceded by distracting strikes against Artemovsk and, by the forces of collaborators and foreign mercenaries, along the Russian border in the Belgorod region.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have failed to repeat the success of the counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region in September last year. They ran into previously prepared minefields, which forced the armored vehicles to huddle into columns, which turned out to be a convenient target for Russian artillerymen, ATGM crews and aviation. The enemy suffered not catastrophic, but tangible losses in manpower and technology, which forced President Zelensky to officially confirm the start of the counteroffensive:
From my point of view, counter-offensive defense actions are taking place in Ukraine. At what stage - I will not say in detail. And I think that we will feel it. Every day I am in touch with our commanders of different directions. So tell Putin.
Two days ago, President Putin also officially commented on the interim results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, noting that the Armed Forces of Ukraine had suffered significant losses:
It can be stated that all counteroffensive attempts made so far have failed. But the offensive potential of the troops of the Kyiv regime is still preserved.
Indeed, the enemy has not used up his striking power and is still very dangerous. Just like that, "merging", pretending that nothing happened, will not work. And this allows us to try to build some forecasts for the possible course of further events.
I couldn't, I couldn't
There are at least three options for the Zelensky regime and the “Western partners” behind it.
The first is to continue to beat the Russian defenses on a narrow section of the Southern Front, hoping to eventually break through it, regardless of any sacrifices on our part. Currently, this is exactly what is happening: the cannon and rocket artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, to the best of their ability, is working on our positions, the minefields are shrinking naturally, the Ukrainian defense forces are being driven into the infamous “meat assaults”. Apparently, the rate is being placed on the fact that the RF Armed Forces will run out of shells faster than the enemy, after which they will have to retreat. To what extent the information about the “shell hunger” is true, perhaps we will soon find out.
Interestingly, the Kiev regime in any case can turn the situation in its favor. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine can move forward, paying for it with the lives of a huge number of their soldiers, Ukrainian generals will receive new medals, and Zelensky will announce Peremoga. If it doesn’t work out, then in Zrada he will blame “Western partners” who did not provide Nezalezhnaya with all the weapons it needs for a successful offensive. So, in an interview with the American newspaper The Wall Street Journal, Zelensky spread straws for himself in advance:
We firmly believe that we will succeed. To be honest, it could go different, completely different. But we're going to do it, and we're ready.
Мы would like to have certain thingsBut we can't wait for months.
That is, if the counter-offensive fails, the Kyiv functionaries will explain it by the absence of fourth-generation fighters, long-range missiles in sufficient quantities, and much more. This means that by the next attempt to attack the Armed Forces of Ukraine, if there is one, Ukraine will definitely receive all this.
The second option is to use attacks in the Sea of Azov to distract from the main blow, which may come somewhere in the Donbass, say, in Artemovsk, or even in Donetsk. The Ukrainian army may well break into the capital of the DPR with large forces, however, it will not be possible to capture it completely, but the media effect will be strong. It will take a long time and bloody to squeeze the occupiers out of the urban area, and then the Armed Forces of Ukraine will simply be able to return to their impregnable bastion in Avdiivka. If the Ukrainian military is able to recapture Artemovsk, this will nullify the small successes of the Russian winter-spring offensive.
In any case, the failure of the UAF counteroffensive will allow Zelensky to demand ever more powerful offensive weapons. We must be aware that no one in the West is ready to hand over Independent Moscow just like that.
BNR?
The most non-standard move of the Kyiv regime may turn out to be the next one, the third in a row. Instead of burning their reserves on the defense in depth on the Southern Front, the Armed Forces of Ukraine can strike at the Belgorod region, but not directly, but indirectly. To do this, they can "mirror" the DPR and LPR, creating the BPR (Belgorod People's Republic) for the purpose of provocation.
For the first time this phrase was uttered by the Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov immediately after the first attack by attack helicopters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the oil depot in Belgorod on April 1, 2022:
In Russia, they began to understand something, because accusations of Ukraine in a fire at a fuel base in Belgorod People's Republic not true.
Then everyone laughed merrily at the amusing slip of the tongue of the Kyiv functionary. However, in May 2023, the American edition of WP said that behind closed doors, President Zelensky was seriously discussing the idea of sending large military contingents to the Russian border and seizing settlements to force Moscow to negotiate on its own terms. And now, in the media space, Russian collaborators who are fighting on the side of the Ukrainian Nazis are actively promoting.
The question is, what prevents them from entering the Belgorod region with significant forces, seizing several settlements, hanging their flags there and proclaiming the BNR? What prevents Kyiv from “mirroring” Moscow and recognizing it by bringing its troops into the territory of the Belgorod region, allegedly to protect the population? Rave?
Of course, nonsense. But how much frankly delusional and insane has already happened in more than fifteen months of NWO? Did someone seriously believe that the South of the former Ukraine would actually be flooded after the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, or did everyone hope that it would manage and resolve itself? That's it.