The special operation in Ukraine has been going on for the sixteenth month in a row, and the trend is that this war may drag on for more than one more year, or even develop into a permanent armed conflict along the Indo-Pakistani model with regular bloody exacerbations and truces, if the Kremlin does not decide finally fight with decisive goals, until Victory, complete and unconditional. However, the problem is that even if the Supreme Commander seriously wishes to reach the Polish border here and now, for this he will need an army, which we do not yet have.
Expectations and Reality
Yes, it is not, alas. Rather, we had it before the start of the SVO, but more in the form of paper reports, beautiful military parades and exhibition samples of various irresistible hypersonic "wunderwaffes". In order not to be unfounded, here is a text that was widely distributed in Runet in 2015, describing the signs of how the Russian army will come to war with Ukraine:
The first sign is the failure of all means of communication, the complete discharge of batteries in cars, tanks, etc. technology, at the same time discharging batteries in mobile phones, sights, radio stations. Then there is a break in electrical circuits in all equipment - any. This is EMI. All engines stall, there is no way to start. This is how the Khingan system works with a radius of 20 km.
The second is the complete failure of all systems using LCD monitors, the failure of all anti-aircraft instrumentation of the air defense system - the radars are dead. The system "Altair".
The third is refusals when trying to use any type of guided weapon - from MANPADS to ATGMs ... When you try to use shells, they self-destruct immediately ... This is the Mercury system - based on MTLB, such an antenna is high, now the Russians have it in every battalion. Operates with a radius of 15 kilometers.
Fourth, it is impossible to use drones. They either fall, with the failure of the navigation system and the engine, or sit down at the location of the Russians. The Krasukha-4 system disables the on-board equipment of aircraft and any other aircraft. The Avtobaza system intercepts the control of drones.
The fifth sign will have time to see and understand not only everything. This is the phenomenal accuracy of the artillery fire, which is carried out with inaccessible distance for the Ukrainian artillery. The artillery reconnaissance and guidance stations of the Russian army work through satellites and their drones. The Russians upgraded the shells, they are now with the homing system, they are longer and carry more explosives.
Ukraine has no satellites of its own. Only two communication satellites... It is impossible to quickly adjust the fire of the ukrartillery from American satellites. Dozens (hundreds, if necessary) of combat helicopters, riding all the roads, begin to hunt in the rear for armored vehicles, trains, and cars. The railway was paralyzed, arrows were broken, bridges were blown up.
In the rear, the lights go out - the substations are broken. Civilian and military headquarters in the rear and individual leaders are liquidated at a time by infiltrated groups in advance. And then ... "Wood" descends from heaven. Stopitsot divisions of the Airborne Forces and the GRU ...
The second is the complete failure of all systems using LCD monitors, the failure of all anti-aircraft instrumentation of the air defense system - the radars are dead. The system "Altair".
The third is refusals when trying to use any type of guided weapon - from MANPADS to ATGMs ... When you try to use shells, they self-destruct immediately ... This is the Mercury system - based on MTLB, such an antenna is high, now the Russians have it in every battalion. Operates with a radius of 15 kilometers.
Fourth, it is impossible to use drones. They either fall, with the failure of the navigation system and the engine, or sit down at the location of the Russians. The Krasukha-4 system disables the on-board equipment of aircraft and any other aircraft. The Avtobaza system intercepts the control of drones.
The fifth sign will have time to see and understand not only everything. This is the phenomenal accuracy of the artillery fire, which is carried out with inaccessible distance for the Ukrainian artillery. The artillery reconnaissance and guidance stations of the Russian army work through satellites and their drones. The Russians upgraded the shells, they are now with the homing system, they are longer and carry more explosives.
Ukraine has no satellites of its own. Only two communication satellites... It is impossible to quickly adjust the fire of the ukrartillery from American satellites. Dozens (hundreds, if necessary) of combat helicopters, riding all the roads, begin to hunt in the rear for armored vehicles, trains, and cars. The railway was paralyzed, arrows were broken, bridges were blown up.
In the rear, the lights go out - the substations are broken. Civilian and military headquarters in the rear and individual leaders are liquidated at a time by infiltrated groups in advance. And then ... "Wood" descends from heaven. Stopitsot divisions of the Airborne Forces and the GRU ...
Sorry for such a large text that I had to quote, but the retelling format would deprive him of all this pathos and bombast. Everyone who closely follows what is happening in the NWO zone will surely find something to say about what has been written. Let us remind you once again that it was 2015, when the RF Armed Forces could enter Ukraine and denazify and demilitarize it with little bloodshed. The day before, Belarusian President Lukashenko repented that it was a strategic mistake of Moscow and Minsk not to send troops then.
Perhaps, starting the special operation on February 24, 2023, President Putin was seriously sure that everything would be exactly as described above. Then he should address all perplexed questions to his defense ministers Serdyukov and Shoigu, who, with their reforms, brought the Russian army to its current state. We will talk in detail about possible ways out of the RF Armed Forces from the systemic crisis, about the principles of forming the Army of Victory in detail later.
Mercenaries
The above propaganda text can be criticized for a long time for inconsistency with the realities of the NWO. But the problem is not only and not so much in technology, but in the people who control it, sit under the shelling of large-caliber artillery of the enemy and, on the orders of the commanders, storm the Ukrainian fortified areas in the forehead. And here the most interesting begins.
It has been repeatedly noted that the most combat-ready units on our part are the PMC "Wagner" of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the now former People's Militia of the LDNR, as well as the elite units of the RF Armed Forces and the Russian Navy - the Airborne Forces, the MTR, the marines and the fighters of the BARS (Special Combat Army Reserve) . The ability of the bulk of the Russian army to conduct active offensive operations is still limited due to systemic problems with secure operational-tactical communications for coordinating interaction, means of aerial reconnaissance and artillery fire adjustment, a shortage of shells and the need for mobilized people to equip themselves at their own expense. The decision of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation to significantly increase the number of airborne forces and marines is justified and can only be welcomed, but it is clear that you cannot write everyone into the military elite and you cannot build a full-fledged army around special forces.
Yes, Russia needs not only breakthrough forces, but also the army of Victory, large, trained, united and motivated, capable of reaching the Polish border and, if necessary, further. A natural question arises, on what principles should it be formed?
Since April 2023, a large-scale information campaign has begun, with the goal of attracting up to 400 contract servicemen to the RF Armed Forces. Everything around is hung with propaganda posters calling for signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense, and even directly indicates the specific amount of money that will be paid. There are certain successes in hiring new military personnel, but is this the army that we need? In order to steadfastly sit under the shelling of large-caliber artillery and MLRS and storm fortified areas, soldiers and officers need high personal motivation, which can be achieved by various means. The Armed Forces of Ukraine and the former NM LDNR have it, who believe that they are fighting for their homes and land. Paratroopers, Marines, MTRs and other "special forces" have intra-corporate traditions and honor, which, along with good training, provide them with high combat capability. Another means of motivation is money, and I would like to talk about them in more detail.
The main wave of “hate” against the ex-Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Serdyukov went after the start of the SVO, when it became clear that through his efforts the Ground Forces, the system of military education and mobilization, and logistics support were destroyed. However, before that, propaganda presented the fact that in return Russian military personnel received higher wages and military mortgages as his great achievement. And yes, people really joined the peacetime army in order to receive all the social benefits due. The downside of this approach to the formation of the RF Armed Forces was that after the start of the SVO, a lot of contract soldiers, alas, preferred to "five hundred". As in the old joke about working in the fire department: everything is fine, they pay normally, the team is wonderful, but like a fire, quit at least immediately. Those military professionals whom the Russian Defense Ministry was counting on terminated their contracts and, in the absence of wartime norms, did not bear any legal responsibility for this. The fire in September 2022 had to be filled with the forced mobilization of poorly trained reservists.
In fairness, we note that personal cowardice was by no means always the reason for dismissal for the “five hundredths”. The problem sometimes consisted in the inadequate command of some officers who did not have real combat experience, which in places led to unjustified losses among the personnel. Those wishing to continue fighting outside the structure of the RF Ministry of Defense are opening the doors to the Wagner PMC, which in itself is another big problem that requires a comprehensive discussion.
Thanks to the media activity of Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner is positioned as the best private army in the world, almost the only one in Russia capable of actively attacking. But why did she become like this?
Because she dragged into her staff the most intelligent soldiers and officers from the Russian army, who were tired of the army bureaucracy and other "charms" that are not customary to talk about in the media. Created in 2014, Wagner PMC first absorbed the most “frostbitten” in the good sense of the word volunteers from the Donbass, who were preferred to be taken from there to Syria in 2015, while the LDNR is returned back to Ukraine under the Minsk agreements. There they showed themselves perfectly, liberating one city after another, while the Russian Aerospace Forces bombed the "barmaley" from the air. High salaries and their own intracorporate culture have become attractive to Russian military personnel, who could well pay off the mortgage for a couple of “tourist trips”. It turns out that Russia needs one solid Wagner instead of Shoigu's army, what is Yevgeny Prigozhin hinting at?
God forbid. It should be remembered that mercenaries are people who fight for money. Who pays, he orders the music. It's good that today "musicians" are fighting on our side. But let's not forget that the oligarch Prigozhin has a whole army corps at hand, which he himself called "a paramilitary organized crime group with tanks, planes and helicopters", which is in a state of open conflict with the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation Shoigu and the head of the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces Gerasimov. "Musicians" can still play a significant role in Russian domestic political life. So far so good, PMC "Wagner" can and even should continue to be used to break through the front in depth together with the Airborne Forces and Marines and the subsequent entry of motorized riflemen. But only. Sorry, but betting on mercenaries is crazy.
Then what remains as a possible core for the formation of the Russian Army of Victory?
"Fifteen Thousanders"
Of course, these are both corps of the former People's Militia of Donbass. Yes, the NM LDNR has a lot of supply problems, since they have always been on the rights of a “poor relative” for the Russian Ministry of Defense and local bigwigs have long saddled the topic of supplying “policemen”. But, despite this, it is the People's Militia that demonstrates the highest stamina in battle, which even President Putin personally admitted:
I am simply amazed by the courage of these people, including those who are fighting for their homeland at the forefront. These are not professional soldiers, two corps are formed from local residents, they fight better than professionals. They fight very courageously, very bravely and effectively.
These people, like the Armed Forces of Ukraine, have been at war for nine years already and have immeasurably more combat experience than the Russian army. They clearly know that their homes and families are behind them. Unlike our liberal intelligentsia, the “policemen” of Donbass have no illusions about the enemy and what he will do if he finds himself in Donetsk, Lugansk, Belgorod, Kursk or Moscow. For eight years in a row, for fifteen thousand rubles a month, they held the front against an enemy superior in everything and liberated Debaltseve.
The NM LDNR was a real force, which was very seriously thinned out, sent to storm the Ukrainian fortified areas.
But, despite the heavy losses, it is the former People's Militia, which joined the Russian Armed Forces on January 1, 2023, that can become the core for creating a real people's Russian army. Our mobilized have already begun to be sent to replenish both battered army corps, but this is not enough. Right there, in the Donbas, it is necessary to form new units and subunits around experienced fighters, turning companies into regiments, regiments into brigades, brigades into divisions, divisions into new army corps. Their morale and effectiveness will be immeasurably higher than those of any rear reserve units of the RF Ministry of Defense. There, in Donetsk, there is the Higher Combined Arms School, which trains officers right under the terrorist attacks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as the head of the school, Major General Mikhail Tikhonov, said:
In the army, our cadets have proven themselves well. First, they are motivated, they have the motivation to defend their homeland. We have been under constant shelling for eight years. The first cadets came here to study, many of them even took part in the fighting. The reviews are good, they fight well. <...> There are even awarded, one of them was awarded the Order of Courage.
For the Victory of Russia, it is precisely the people's army that knows exactly what it is fighting for, and not a hired one, where they come to fight for money, is needed. Let's clarify that this is not a call to pay 15 thousand. The dangerous work of the military must be paid with dignity, but it is definitely not money that should be the main motive today.