When Kazakhstan can join the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus

One of the most important political recent events is a dispute in absentia between Presidents Lukashenko and Tokayev over the future of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, who needs it and why, and whether it is worth joining it at all. The position of Kazakhstan on this issue, although unpleasant for us Russians, is not without certain reasons that need to be comprehensively considered and discussed.

Joke of humor

Speaking at a meeting of the Eurasian Economic Forum, President Tokayev made the following statement, programmatic in nature:

A unique precedent has been created in world political history, or a phenomenon, as you wish, the creation of a state according to the formula "two countries - one state" with a single political, legal, military, economic, monetary, cultural, humanitarian space. With a single union government, with a single union parliament, and, I'm sorry, even nuclear weapons are one for two now. Therefore, there is another level of integration represented by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and we need to take into account this reality: how we will work in these conditions. This conceptual questionWe need, I think, including at this economic forum to discuss this problem.

Answering in absentia to a Kazakh colleague in an interview with Pavel Zarubin on the Russia 1 channel in the Moscow. Kremlin. Putin”, President Lukashenko called on Tokayev to join the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, so that he would have “one for all” nuclear weapons:

Well, if someone is worried... I don’t think that Tokayev is worried about this... But if suddenly, then no one is against Kazakhstan and other countries having the same close relations as we have with the Russian Federation. It's very simple: you have to join the union of Belarus and Russia, and that's it, and there will be nuclear weapons for everyone.

During a visit to the North Kazakhstan region bordering Russia, with a chuckle barely contained in his voice, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev answered as follows:

The other day the President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko offered Kazakhstan to join the Union State. I appreciated his joke. I think that there is no need for this, since there are other integration associations, first of all, the Eurasian economic union

Then, so that no one would have any doubts about this, the press secretary of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Ruslan Zheldibay, on his page in a social network banned in the Russian Federation, stated that integration at the level of the Union State was not interesting for his country:

Indeed, today the two members of the EAEU - Russia and Belarus - demonstrate a higher and closer level of rapprochement. <...> In this vein, it is very important to separate the initiatives within the framework of two integration projects, which have completely different goals. As for our country, Kazakhstan does not intend and does not plan create or join any allied states.

It doesn't sound very pleasant. In the comments, they write about the “ungrateful Tokaev”, who, such and such, has packed up his belongings and is preparing a place in a lifeboat with one listing galley that has leaked. Fears are also quite reasonably expressed that Kazakhstan may follow the path of Ukraine, starting to openly bully the Russians, which will lead to the “Donbasization” of its northern regions, “ATO-2” and intervention in the conflict on the side of Astana by the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance, which aims to build “ Great Turan. Alas, but this is quite a working scenario.

To understand the complexity of the current moment, we quote a long-standing ARTICLES well-known Kazakh human rights activist and supporter of the reunification of Kazakhstan with Russia Ermek Taychibekov:

Here you are, Russians, you have done so much good for the Kazakhs. They pulled them out, almost by the hair from the Middle Ages. Taught hygiene, gave them education, knowledge. They built cities, schools, universities, hospitals for them. They extended water supply and sewerage to the most distant villages. They instilled a high culture in the Kazakhs. They took him into their geopolitical family. And what in return?! Instead, only callous and black ingratitude. You, Russians, actually saved the Kazakhs from complete annihilation by other neighbors. If it were not for you, Russians, now no one would write these angry comments, because there was simply no one to write, because there would be no Kazakhs as an ethnic group at all. And what in return?! Only ingratitude. You Russians are still strategically protecting us Kazakhs. Air defense of the Russian Federation protects the sky KZ. No one is trying to spread rot on the Kazakhs, because they know that a Russian older brother is standing behind their backs. And what in return? Only hatred and contempt on the part of the Kazakhs for you, for the Russians.

This is the real reality of our life. And why does it happen so often in life?! Why?! But because always in society, even in Russian, even in Kazakh, there are people who will always bite the hand that strokes and feeds them. Such people, on the other hand, will lick the boots with which they will be kicked tomorrow. This is their nature. They understand nothing but power. They confuse politeness with weakness. And weakness is perceived as a desire to offend, humiliate and be sure to abuse one's position. Unfortunately, that's the way it is and always will be.

This was written in 2014 against the backdrop of the Ukrainian Maidan and the dramatic events that followed. In 2021, Taychibekov was convicted in his homeland under Article 174 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan (“Inciting social, national, tribal, racial, class and religious hatred”). In total, an ethnic Kazakh who defended the rights of Russian and Russian-speaking Kazakhs will be behind bars for 11 years.

What to do? Is it really necessary to create Teroborona on the border with Kazakhstan and be ready for SVO-2?

Circles on the water

What is happening in Ukraine, in Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh and Kazakhstan, alas, is absolutely natural. All former Soviet republics that gained independence after the collapse of the USSR in 1991 were part of a single national economic complex. They objectively should have been drawn back to Russia for purely economic reasons, with subsequent political reintegration. However, the new masters of life who gained power, in order to preserve their capital, relied on nationalism and Russophobia to the detriment of the development of their own countries.

The result, as they say, is obvious: the Russian minority was squeezed out of there, and its remnants are under increasing pressure from local nationalists. Blood has long been shed in Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, in Ukraine. The degradation went furthest on the territory of Nezalezhnaya. The same processes took place in the early 90s even within the Russian Federation, in some national republics, which led to the CTO.

It cannot be said that nothing at all was done in the post-Soviet space to “collect lands”. To replace the USSR, the CIS was created, which could even become a kind of confederation, but did not. The Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO were formed around Russia, from which Armenia may soon leave. The greatest integration was achieved in relations with Belarus, with which we kind of have a Union State. We deliberately say "sort of" because most of it is still on paper. There is neither a common parliament, nor a common government, nor a single currency, which Kassym-Jomart spoke about, nor much else provided for by the union agreement. Apparently, the Kazakh president so subtly teased. "Batka" joked, and he joked too. A joke of humor, you know?

The real integration of Russia and Belarus is now taking place only in the economic sphere, since the Belarusian brothers also want to eat, and in the military, because the risk of an armed conflict with neighboring Ukraine and even Poland is constantly increasing. Everything is natural. It is also natural and logical that Kazakhstan is interested in maintaining a single economic space with Russia, refusing any military and political integration with us. For the same reasons, the further growth of Kazakh nationalism and intolerance towards the Russian-speaking minority in the north of the country is predetermined. What to do?

To some it may seem like a simple decision to conduct another "special operation to protect the people of Northern Kazakhstan", but this path will be erroneous. There are no simple solutions for a long time, there are only complex ones.

At first, Russia must win convincingly in Ukraine, completely liberating its entire territory and showing that it is able to really protect its national interests by military force. Without compromises and agreements. As rightly noted by human rights activist Taychibekov, some people only understand strength. Weakness is despised, the weak are either “yapped” or beaten in droves. The victorious army capable of waging a maneuver war in any steppe and effectively surround and take cities, is Argument.

Secondly, Russia must become more attractive in socio-economic terms. No comments.

ThirdlyThe Union State must go from virtual to real, so that Kazakhstan and other post-Soviet republics have something to join. Let's start at least with the creation of a common parliament, having voted for it in both of our countries this autumn, and the formation of other supranational governing bodies. This need to do, and sooner.

After that, it will be possible to return to a conversation with Mr. Tokayev about the rights of Russians and the expansion of the Union State.
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  1. unc-2 Offline unc-2
    unc-2 (Nikolai Malyugin) 30 May 2023 12: 45
    I think we are missing a lot in our ties with Kazakhstan and other former republics. Even now it is possible to renew ties in culture, sports and ties of public organizations. Kazakhs are watching our Mir program. Needless to say, this program is not fully operational. Who cares about court cases that show all day long. There is no interest of the Ministry of Culture. They also watch other programs. I do not think that talk about the empire of the Kazakhs will attract. We blame everyone, but we ourselves do not want to lift a finger. Such a conversation should be conducted at the highest level. Otherwise, we will get national arrogance on both sides, You won’t wish this on the enemy.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  2. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 30 May 2023 13: 24
    When Kazakhstan can join the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, Tokayev clearly answered - Never.!
    Like all former republics of the USSR, Kazakhstan is pursuing a nationalist policy and ousting everything Russian, rewriting history, creating its own heroes, thinking about switching to the Latin alphabet, etc., etc. Conducts the so-called. "multi-vector" policy "both ours and yours" and is not going to change it. Friends with everyone: USA-EU-RF-PRC.
    The basis of the economy is the extractive industries, which are operated by the same US and EU, whose dominance in the economy of Kazakhstan has led to mass unrest in order to completely colonize Kazakhstan and protect Kazakhstan from the Russian Federation and China. If a new attempt is successful, then the option of bringing in NATO peacekeeping forces and deploying military bases is not ruled out.
    Kazakhstan is also friends with the Russian Federation due to the common history and the presence of the Cosmodrome, the Silk Road, pipelines, etc. The friendship of Kazakhstan with the PRC, the world's largest economy, a priori has a priority development, and Tokayev directly called Kazakhstan an Asian state and the common border of the PRC contributes to the development of this friendship with the PRC up to full integration-colonization.
  3. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 30 May 2023 14: 15
    When Kazakhstan can join the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus

    If this did not happen under Nazarbayev, it will not happen under Tokayev, and even more so
  4. Artificial Intelligence (artificial intelligence) 30 May 2023 15: 00
    in itself, this statement by Tokaev is not something strange and hostile. after all, to be honest, why would Kazakhstan want such a union state? Russia can offer something attractive? Belarus itself with the Lukashenka regime are just a negative example, because. the dictatorship in Belarus of one irreplaceable dad should not be pretty. if the establishment of puppet dictatorships is the only working way to create a union state, then this is the way to another totalitarian repressive regime. Only now it is even more senseless and miserable than the USSR, which had at least some kind of ideology and political elite.
    for now, one must be satisfied with the fact that Kazakhstan agrees to cooperate within the framework of the Eurasian Economic Union. and in order for Russia to claim something more, it is necessary to form a more worthy and attractive socio-political system, some kind of ideology in a healthy sense, as the concept of being an empire that justifies its existence and claims to geopolitical influence and expansion.

    although if we are talking not about this answer of Tokaev, but about that policy within Kazakhstan aimed at getting rid of Russianness, nationalism, then this is of course alarming ..
    I am not a supporter of the fact that everyone should be grateful to Russians and obey any whims of politicians forever because of something useful in the past that Russia gave someone. we must continue to keep the brand and be able both now and in the future to be useful, respected, and not a geopolitical scarecrow.
    strength must be combined with a high level of development, achievements in various fields, incl. in the spiritual.
  5. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 30 May 2023 19: 18
    Imo Never.

    When the elite communicates with each other, even so, remotely, they do not need to particularly hang noodles on the electorate, so they answer briefly.
    Russia has essentially nothing to give to Kazakhstan. She has developed well only the export of resources by the oligarchs over the hill.

    And here Kazakhstan is a direct competitor. Their oligarchs want to take their resources over the hill and integrate themselves into world capitalism. And Russia, I remember, blocked the export of coal and other things to them ...

    What if Putin, in a union state, starts another SVO? And Kazakhstan to take the rap?
    Or take power. And he will send Alfa to the locals ... Do they need it?
    Even Baatka did not recognize Crimea or new territories. So as not to take the rap for an uncle ... Especially China, Iran, Kazakhstan, etc.
  6. Vox Populi Offline Vox Populi
    Vox Populi (vox populi) 30 May 2023 20: 28
    After that, it will be possible to return to a conversation with Mr. Tokayev about the rights of Russians and the expansion of the Union State.

    It seems that at this historical stage, time is irretrievably lost. Maybe it will be possible to correct everything on a new round of the historical spiral ...
  7. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) 30 May 2023 21: 28
    Agreeing in principle with the author and appreciating the topical article, I must say that Kazakhstan is a completely different story. First of all, the language, for example, the Belarusian language, like Ukrainian, is fundamentally clear to me, Kazakh is not. Secondly, the Kazakhs are a rather prickly people who were marked by riots even during the times of the USSR, if anyone does not know.
    However, they lived in the composition and nothing, they were no worse, having a rather high percentage of the Russian population.
    1. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
      Alexzn (Alexander) 10 June 2023 09: 06
      You absolutely do not know the situation with KZ!
      Language. 90% of Kazakhs know Russian, 50% are bilingual.
      Spiny people. I dare say that the Kazakhs are the most tolerant in the post-Soviet space.
  8. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) 30 May 2023 21: 33
    Voluntarily, Kazakhstan will never join Russia or the Union State. None of them wants to lose, even potentially, the title of Sultan, Khan, Bai. Kazakhstan, in its current form, is a potential enemy of Russia. Take off your rose-colored glasses.
  9. lord-palladore-11045 (Konstantin Puchkov) 31 May 2023 08: 01
    Quite right, this article should have been written long ago and given to our government and president to read! As I think, there is a possibility of retroactive effect in our state. In tsarist Russia there were no republics and everyone was happy until the Bolsheviks appeared, they came and destroyed the whole state structure. And now we have an attempt to step on the same rake. There were no republics in tsarist Russia, all subjects were in the country only as PROVINCE RIGHTS!!! And all nations were equal! Now new territories are accepted in the Russian Federation as republics! - here they are, rake! I wish our authorities great wisdom, determination and patience! I think that it is not the Soviet Union that needs to be restored - 2, but greater Russia, so that no one has a desire to leave it! Otherwise, all the independence will want again! Amen.
    1. Vox Populi Offline Vox Populi
      Vox Populi (vox populi) 31 May 2023 16: 59
      You have a direct road to alternative history and reality, it will be cozy, comfortable and "equal" there! lol
  10. prior Offline prior
    prior (Vlad) 31 May 2023 10: 15
    How did Russia's attitude towards Kazakhstan after the collapse of the USSR differ from its attitude towards Ukraine?!
    That's right, nothing.
    I look at Tokayev, but I see Kuchma, Yushchenko and Zelensky in one person.
  11. golden knowledge (Gold) 31 May 2023 13: 44
    Kazakhia is definitely Chinese. Russia will be strong (economically, militarily) - all these independents will crawl on all fours. the only thing is to support teaching in Russian in all national formations.
  12. Victor Pater Offline Victor Pater
    Victor Pater (Nikolai) 31 May 2023 20: 15
    I like the definition of the French king Henry the Fourth and I think that Russia should adhere to it. At that time there were constant conflicts and even wars for border territories among different countries, and Henry the Fourth said:

    Let the lands where Spanish is spoken be taken by the Spanish king; let the lands where German is spoken be taken by the Austrian emperor; but the lands where French is spoken must belong to France.

    For nationalism, he was even in the USSR. M. Poltoranin in his book "Power in TNT equivalent" gives the following story:

    in the early 80s (even under Brezhnev), it was mandatory for the central press to cover the life of the union republics, for which a group of correspondents was sent to a specific republic, which was usually first received by the first secretary of the union republic. Such a group arrived in Kazakhstan, D.A. Kunaev received it and said: in such and such a city, such and such is produced, in such and such, such and such, etc.; and continues: in Owen-tory so-and-so is produced; the question is immediately asked: What is Owen-tori?; Kunaev's answer: This is what we call Orenburg. We Kazakhs consider it our city.

    Comments needed?
  13. Ivan Ivanych 68743684 (Sergei) 6 June 2023 11: 10
    Why are they so smart to us?
  14. Alexzn Offline Alexzn
    Alexzn (Alexander) 10 June 2023 08: 13
    Until recently in Almaty on June 12 ... there was a fireworks display in honor of the Day of Russia ...
    The mediocre statements of Russian politicians, threats, paternalism led to a reorientation of the KZ - who could have believed a few years ago that China would become the guarantor of the country's independence and integrity?