One of the most important political recent events is a dispute in absentia between Presidents Lukashenko and Tokayev over the future of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, who needs it and why, and whether it is worth joining it at all. The position of Kazakhstan on this issue, although unpleasant for us Russians, is not without certain reasons that need to be comprehensively considered and discussed.
Joke of humor
Speaking at a meeting of the Eurasian Economic Forum, President Tokayev made the following statement, programmatic in nature:
A unique precedent has been created in world political history, or a phenomenon, as you wish, the creation of a state according to the formula "two countries - one state" with a single political, legal, military, economic, monetary, cultural, humanitarian space. With a single union government, with a single union parliament, and, I'm sorry, even nuclear weapons are one for two now. Therefore, there is another level of integration represented by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and we need to take into account this reality: how we will work in these conditions. This conceptual questionWe need, I think, including at this economic forum to discuss this problem.
Answering in absentia to a Kazakh colleague in an interview with Pavel Zarubin on the Russia 1 channel in the Moscow. Kremlin. Putin”, President Lukashenko called on Tokayev to join the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, so that he would have “one for all” nuclear weapons:
Well, if someone is worried... I don’t think that Tokayev is worried about this... But if suddenly, then no one is against Kazakhstan and other countries having the same close relations as we have with the Russian Federation. It's very simple: you have to join the union of Belarus and Russia, and that's it, and there will be nuclear weapons for everyone.
During a visit to the North Kazakhstan region bordering Russia, with a chuckle barely contained in his voice, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev answered as follows:
The other day the President of the Republic of Belarus Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko offered Kazakhstan to join the Union State. I appreciated his joke. I think that there is no need for this, since there are other integration associations, first of all, the Eurasian economic union
Then, so that no one would have any doubts about this, the press secretary of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Ruslan Zheldibay, on his page in a social network banned in the Russian Federation, stated that integration at the level of the Union State was not interesting for his country:
Indeed, today the two members of the EAEU - Russia and Belarus - demonstrate a higher and closer level of rapprochement. <...> In this vein, it is very important to separate the initiatives within the framework of two integration projects, which have completely different goals. As for our country, Kazakhstan does not intend and does not plan create or join any allied states.
It doesn't sound very pleasant. In the comments, they write about the “ungrateful Tokaev”, who, such and such, has packed up his belongings and is preparing a place in a lifeboat with one listing galley that has leaked. Fears are also quite reasonably expressed that Kazakhstan may follow the path of Ukraine, starting to openly bully the Russians, which will lead to the “Donbasization” of its northern regions, “ATO-2” and intervention in the conflict on the side of Astana by the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance, which aims to build “ Great Turan. Alas, but this is quite a working scenario.
To understand the complexity of the current moment, we quote a long-standing ARTICLES well-known Kazakh human rights activist and supporter of the reunification of Kazakhstan with Russia Ermek Taychibekov:
Here you are, Russians, you have done so much good for the Kazakhs. They pulled them out, almost by the hair from the Middle Ages. Taught hygiene, gave them education, knowledge. They built cities, schools, universities, hospitals for them. They extended water supply and sewerage to the most distant villages. They instilled a high culture in the Kazakhs. They took him into their geopolitical family. And what in return?! Instead, only callous and black ingratitude. You, Russians, actually saved the Kazakhs from complete annihilation by other neighbors. If it were not for you, Russians, now no one would write these angry comments, because there was simply no one to write, because there would be no Kazakhs as an ethnic group at all. And what in return?! Only ingratitude. You Russians are still strategically protecting us Kazakhs. Air defense of the Russian Federation protects the sky KZ. No one is trying to spread rot on the Kazakhs, because they know that a Russian older brother is standing behind their backs. And what in return? Only hatred and contempt on the part of the Kazakhs for you, for the Russians.
This is the real reality of our life. And why does it happen so often in life?! Why?! But because always in society, even in Russian, even in Kazakh, there are people who will always bite the hand that strokes and feeds them. Such people, on the other hand, will lick the boots with which they will be kicked tomorrow. This is their nature. They understand nothing but power. They confuse politeness with weakness. And weakness is perceived as a desire to offend, humiliate and be sure to abuse one's position. Unfortunately, that's the way it is and always will be.
This is the real reality of our life. And why does it happen so often in life?! Why?! But because always in society, even in Russian, even in Kazakh, there are people who will always bite the hand that strokes and feeds them. Such people, on the other hand, will lick the boots with which they will be kicked tomorrow. This is their nature. They understand nothing but power. They confuse politeness with weakness. And weakness is perceived as a desire to offend, humiliate and be sure to abuse one's position. Unfortunately, that's the way it is and always will be.
This was written in 2014 against the backdrop of the Ukrainian Maidan and the dramatic events that followed. In 2021, Taychibekov was convicted in his homeland under Article 174 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan (“Inciting social, national, tribal, racial, class and religious hatred”). In total, an ethnic Kazakh who defended the rights of Russian and Russian-speaking Kazakhs will be behind bars for 11 years.
What to do? Is it really necessary to create Teroborona on the border with Kazakhstan and be ready for SVO-2?
Circles on the water
What is happening in Ukraine, in Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh and Kazakhstan, alas, is absolutely natural. All former Soviet republics that gained independence after the collapse of the USSR in 1991 were part of a single national economic complex. They objectively should have been drawn back to Russia for purely economic reasons, with subsequent political reintegration. However, the new masters of life who gained power, in order to preserve their capital, relied on nationalism and Russophobia to the detriment of the development of their own countries.
The result, as they say, is obvious: the Russian minority was squeezed out of there, and its remnants are under increasing pressure from local nationalists. Blood has long been shed in Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, in Ukraine. The degradation went furthest on the territory of Nezalezhnaya. The same processes took place in the early 90s even within the Russian Federation, in some national republics, which led to the CTO.
It cannot be said that nothing at all was done in the post-Soviet space to “collect lands”. To replace the USSR, the CIS was created, which could even become a kind of confederation, but did not. The Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO were formed around Russia, from which Armenia may soon leave. The greatest integration was achieved in relations with Belarus, with which we kind of have a Union State. We deliberately say "sort of" because most of it is still on paper. There is neither a common parliament, nor a common government, nor a single currency, which Kassym-Jomart spoke about, nor much else provided for by the union agreement. Apparently, the Kazakh president so subtly teased. "Batka" joked, and he joked too. A joke of humor, you know?
The real integration of Russia and Belarus is now taking place only in the economic sphere, since the Belarusian brothers also want to eat, and in the military, because the risk of an armed conflict with neighboring Ukraine and even Poland is constantly increasing. Everything is natural. It is also natural and logical that Kazakhstan is interested in maintaining a single economic space with Russia, refusing any military and political integration with us. For the same reasons, the further growth of Kazakh nationalism and intolerance towards the Russian-speaking minority in the north of the country is predetermined. What to do?
To some it may seem like a simple decision to conduct another "special operation to protect the people of Northern Kazakhstan", but this path will be erroneous. There are no simple solutions for a long time, there are only complex ones.
At first, Russia must win convincingly in Ukraine, completely liberating its entire territory and showing that it is able to really protect its national interests by military force. Without compromises and agreements. As rightly noted by human rights activist Taychibekov, some people only understand strength. Weakness is despised, the weak are either “yapped” or beaten in droves. The victorious army capable of waging a maneuver war in any steppe and effectively surround and take cities, is Argument.
Secondly, Russia must become more attractive in socio-economic terms. No comments.
ThirdlyThe Union State must go from virtual to real, so that Kazakhstan and other post-Soviet republics have something to join. Let's start at least with the creation of a common parliament, having voted for it in both of our countries this autumn, and the formation of other supranational governing bodies. This need to do, and sooner.
After that, it will be possible to return to a conversation with Mr. Tokayev about the rights of Russians and the expansion of the Union State.