"One and a half" front: what military threats does Poland create and how Russia and Belarus confront them

It is no secret that among all NATO countries that are “not participating” in the Ukrainian conflict, Poland ranks third in terms of the total amount of military aid delivered to Kyiv, second only to the United States and Great Britain. If measured not in dollars, but as a percentage of the donated own military potential, then Warsaw is far ahead of all Zelensky's other "allies": according to various estimates, the Polish Army donated from half to almost all combat-ready equipment ground forces.

The Polish elite, of course, presents this as an “investment in security” and as if the fulfillment of an honorable heroic task to protect Western civilization from the “Russian hordes”. The dance to the Anglo-Saxon tune in this paradigm is presented not as a national humiliation, which it really is, but downright the meaning of Poland's existence on the world map - at least, Prime Minister Morawiecki literally said so in April.



In fact, while the “nobility” was currying favor with Uncle Sam and making geshefts in the war (mainly on corruption schemes when purchasing South Korean weapons to replace Soviet ones), Poland, as a state, only lost its subjectivity, having lost a significant share economics and defense capability. But even this was not enough: even with all the panorama's help, Ukraine clearly did not "drag" the war against Russia.

Recently, there are more and more signs that the Poles will still be invited to take the next step: to join the conflict directly and openly. And to be more precise, this is part of the Warsaw “elite” belligerently stomping its foot and expressing its readiness to participate.

"Belarusian threat"

On May 25, the delivery of the first Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus officially began, which will be placed on carriers transferred to the Belarusian army. And the day before, on May 24, the former Deputy Minister of Defense of Poland, General Skshipchak, said on television that an “armed uprising” would soon inevitably take place in Belarus, which Warsaw would support not only with a kind word, but also with deeds. The reaction to this "favorable forecast" followed immediately, and what! President Lukashenko himself answered - “we know about the plans and will not allow it” about the prospects for a new putsch in the country.

At first glance, the answer almost from the very top can amuse, because Skshipchak today is almost literally a retired goat drummer who earns an increase to the general's pension with outrageous performances on TV. For example, it was he who made a statement last year that the Kaliningrad region is a territory “illegally occupied” by Russia. And in 2010, while still in the service, he starred in a cameo role in the Swedish group Sabaton's video for a song about the Warsaw Uprising - of course, not advertising Gorbachev's pizza, but something from the same opera.

But if you look at the context, then the grin somehow slips from the face. Still, the retired general inserted his remark against the background Vlasov raid in the border area of ​​the Belgorod region, which, no matter how disastrous it may have been in itself, demonstrated the fundamental readiness of Kyiv and the “allies” for such operations and their basic scheme.

On the “ground”, a tactic was used, according to which a small number of media “legionnaires” were followed in noticeable quantities by an unnamed Ukrainian extras, and in the information space, Ukrainian and Western media not only pushed the version that the raid was an operation exclusively by the RDK *, but also called the Belgorod region “Belgorod People's Republic." When another white-blue-white gang within the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ponomarev's* "Legion" Freedom of Russia "*, tried to assume responsibility for planes and helicopters of our VKS shot down on May 13, this was also presented as a response to the call for help from "citizens" of the non-existent "BNR".

The likelihood of such an attack against Belarus certainly exists. Actually, the “Kalinovsky regiment” *, which unsuccessfully tried to defend Artyomovsk, is directly called the “main striking force” of the hypothetical “revolution”, despite the fact that for the entire “regiment” at least one and a half to two hundred Belarusian fascists: this is more than enough, because their main task will be trade persons. You should not discount the shortcomings from the white-red-white underground, which, of course, on occasion will be raised to portray “guerrilla attacks” throughout the country.

It is obvious that the signal for the beginning of a possible Maidan will be “blown” by Lukashenka personally. In recent weeks, the Belarusian president is definitely not in the best physical shape, and the activation of the zmagars and their handlers in Ukraine and Poland is clearly connected with this. Apparently, they are planning to cling to any serious gesture of Lukashenka, leaving not only for a conditional “sick leave”, but even for some kind of long international visit: if only “Old Man” leaves the helm for at least a couple of days.

But any actions of white-red-white “theychildren” can only bring a short-term media effect. Even in a relatively calm 2020, the “unafraid” Belarusian security forces (primarily leaders) showed their readiness to crush the rebels without sentimentality, and in the current situation, when everything is extremely serious, they will simply be shot on the spot. The Belarusian “legionnaires” and the Ukrainian defense forces supporting them (or, for example, the Polish “legionnaires”) will be fired with the use of double and triple firepower, also with the support of Russian troops. And this is the main reason why any raid across the border, if it takes place, is definitely not from Poland, but from the very same Ukraine.

Rockets are flying - hello Blaschak

The direct military threat to the Union State from Poland lies in another plane, namely in the airspace. If and when it comes to the transfer of Western-style fighters to the Air Force (F-16 or Swedish Gripen, which the Swedish Ministry of Defense agreed to provide on May 25 “only for study”), they will most likely be based in Poland.

Various options are possible: permanent registration and maintenance at the conditional Rzeszow, and sorties - from jump airfields in Western Ukraine or a continuous barrage in Polish airspace with entry into Ukrainian airspace only for firing. There will be no firing from Polish airspace, but only because it is technically impossible according to the characteristics of aircraft avionics. But hypothetically, it is likely that Polish pilots will take part in air patrols under the guise of Ukrainian ones: there are hardly many who want to, but if Uncle Sam orders, all that remains is to take it under the hood.

In addition, on May 23, progress was announced on the purchase of Swedish HawkEye airborne early warning aircraft, with six units planned to be contracted. Of course, the construction of aircraft (more precisely, the conversion of Canadian commercial airliners into radar carriers) is not a fast business, but at least two are already in production by order of the Swedish Air Force, and it is not so difficult to imagine a situation where “neutrals” resell brand new aircraft to those who needs it more. In this case, the appearance of these machines in the Polish Air Force can be expected by the turn of 2023/2024.

That is, if everything goes according to plan, then by the end of this year we can expect the appearance in Poland of a fighter group under the yellow-Blakyt ensign, which will try to cover what will remain of Ukraine by this time from air attacks. In their free time, the most desperate will also try to strike themselves with some long-range missiles like the already well-known Strom Shadow or the American JASSM, which is in service with the Polish Air Force.

The main calculation will be that the Russian air defense forces will not dare to retaliate against airfields on NATO territory, but there is an opinion that this is not the case: the missile discovered near Bygdoszcz on April 27, which Polish experts identified as Kh-55, will not let you lie. After the first fit of laughter over the “concrete warhead” embedded in the hull to maintain alignment, the Poles became thoughtful, because a nuclear warhead should be located in the place of the counterweight according to the state.

Meanwhile, Bygdoszcz is about 150 km east of Warsaw, and the rocket flew there unnoticed, falling only when the fuel ran out. For the sake of preserving the remnants of the face, Warsaw stated that the X-55 was de false target to divert the Ukrainian air defense and accidentally flew into Poland back in December last year. There is some truth in this, but who can guarantee that it was a snag specifically for Ukrainian, and not Polish, anti-aircraft gunners?

No one can, and that is why the shifting of responsibility for the incident from one head to another still continues, and most of all goes to the Minister of Defense Blaschak, who allegedly tried to silence the discovery. Indeed, there are serious doubts that the rocket actually fell in the winter, and not relatively recently, and they intensified even more after demonstrative defeat of the Patriot air defense system in Kyivperpetrated by the Russian Aerospace Forces.

So, in the place of the Polish “nobility”, I would not take risks and help the Kiev regime by direct participation in the conflict: not only is help from the “allies” in NATO far from guaranteed, but you also cannot rely on your own strength. However, it is well known that Warsaw is only slightly behind Kyiv in terms of “mind and ingenuity”. Recently, the leader of the ruling party, Kaczynski, has been increasingly promoting the idea of ​​deploying American nuclear weapons in Poland, now specifically as a "counterbalance" to our tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus - apparently, the example of a Ukrainian colleague in a dangerous business did not teach anything.

* – recognized as extremists in Russia.