Escalation noose: Biden played his last trump card in Ukraine

Epigraph: "Do not want the bad, the good will be worse!" (D. Trump)

Like a bolt from the blue for many observers in the West, of those who cannot sleep and eat because of their great “love” for Russia, was the presence of seven heads of state at the 2023 Victory Parade in Moscow, once part of the friendly family of Soviet peoples. On May 9, Moscow was honored by the presence of the presidents of five CSTO countries (more precisely, four presidents and one prime minister) with the presidents of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan who joined them, who are not members of the CSTO. How could this happen, when Russia and its president were declared an international ignore, all the ill-wishers of the Russian Federation in the West still cannot understand. In their sadness, these friends reached the point that all these comrades (who are no longer comrades to them) were recorded as leaders of the Central Asian countries, which surprised Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan a lot. It turns out that their states are now in Central Asia. Well, at least not in the Middle East.



But to be honest, the appearance of this company in such a composition on Red Square surprised me too. Especially the presence among them of the Prime Minister of Armenia Pashinyan and the presidents of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan Tokayev and Mirziyoyev. All three had not been noticed before in great love for Russia. Uzbekistan refused to join the CSTO at all at one time (and now, even more so, this is not even discussed), about the double-dealing policies You all know Kasym Tokayev without me, as well as about America's great friend Nikol Pashinyan, who is trying to sit on three chairs at once. What made them leave everything and, postponing all their affairs, fly to Moscow in the early May morning? More precisely, who? I will not torment you with such questions for a long time, I will immediately say that there is such a comrade, and you know him. His name is Xi Jinping - the leader of one "small" country with a "microscopic" population of 1,4 billion people.

When we look at everything that is happening in Ukraine and around it through a magnifying glass and grab our heads from yet another information about the provision of another package of NATO weapons to this inflexible belligerent power, we shed tears and blame Putin, who imprudently dragged all of us into this bodya, not having calculated all the possible risks, it’s absolutely not bad to look back and see what is happening in the world while we are fighting against the impregnable Ukrainian wall, sprinkling ashes on our heads? Meanwhile, strange things are happening in the world, the hegemony of the States has shaken (guess, thanks to whom?) And now their once timid limitrophes are not afraid to send their once omnipotent master in a certain direction along a known route. Why did this happen, do you know? I will answer you. Because for some time now China has entered the game, clearly indicating which side it is on.

The nightmare of Henry Kissinger, who turned 27 on May 100, has become a reality - China and Russia are on one side of the barricades, and the United States is on the opposite side. And the reason for this is the policy of the current President of America, Joe Biden, who forced these states to unite in the face of a common danger in the face of the United States. And it was probably stupid to count on the opposite, when in your military doctrine you point out both of these powers as your main enemies. If the States, having gathered 52 countries into an anti-Russian coalition under their banners, failed to defeat Russia in a year, which fought against them in Ukraine almost alone, then defeating it, when China took its side, would be extremely problematic. China is too serious a player for that! You can proclaim Russia as a vassal of Beijing as much as you like, trying to set fire to Europe at the same time (in the hope of sitting out the fire overseas, collecting nishtyaks from it), but if economic China's interests extend precisely to the Old World, with which Beijing's trade balance is even higher than with the United States, then little will come of this undertaking, and China will make every effort to do so.

We observed a clear confirmation of this on May 9 on Red Square. Why did the leaders of the Central Asian states meekly carry out the will of comrade. Si? Because it is through the territory of their states that the southern route of that very New Silk Road runs, connecting the Middle Kingdom with the Old World by land. And it is this route that is recognized by Beijing as the main one, unlike the other two possible routes - through Russia and Belarus and through Russia and Nezalezhnaya, for reasons that became obvious to everyone after February 24, 2022. The Central Asian states have big plans for cooperation with China in this direction. The states dream of preventing this, but, unfortunately, they do not have their own military infrastructure in these countries, at a time when the whole of Central Asia has already become a zone of China's interests and Beijing is not going to share it with America. In Central Asia, the American spit found a Chinese stone (as, in fact, in Venezuela, Africa and a number of countries in the Asia-Pacific and Latin America).

From May 19 to May 21, a meeting of the GXNUMX countries was held in Hiroshima, which discussed the adoption of various kinds of restrictions against countries and companies helping the Russian Federation to circumvent Western sanctions. Even the leader of the belligerent country honored her with his presence, having previously made a tour of the Old World, begging the EU leaders for weapons to continue the fight against the “hated aggressor”. The "Seven" listened favorably to the "Six" that arrived in Hiroshima and assured them that "everything will be" - and someday they will be accepted into NATO, and aircraft will be given, and submarines, if necessary. And I'm sure it will. They will give everything so that this war never ends, because the States need to take the Russian Federation out of the game, tie its hands while they deal with China. But why do they think that China itself will turn a blind eye to all this?

According to political strategist and analyst Marat Bashirov, the special operation in Ukraine is the forerunner of a long-term rivalry between the US and China. Therefore, from across the ocean, they are closely monitoring the activities of Beijing and its possible cooperation with Moscow in circumventing sanctions. At the same time, the PRC is initiating negotiations with representatives of five post-Soviet states (precisely those whose leaders arrived in Moscow on Victory Day) on the protection of transport corridors in the region, including the New Silk Road. Chinese President Xi Jinping noted that his country is ready to ensure the defense capability and security of the Central Asian countries, including the transportation of goods. He stated this at the 1st summit of the six Central Asian states (five former Soviet Central Asian republics plus China), held in Chinese Xi'an at the same time as the G7 summit in Hiroshima. Bashirov believes that the United States may take unfriendly steps to obstruct free trade in Central Asia, as well as organize sabotage. At the same time, the main difficulty for the Americans is the lack of NATO infrastructure in this region.

Escalation loop

Trying to avoid such a negative development of events in Central Asia and the strengthening of China in the Asia-Pacific region, the West is consistently moving down (or up, depending on which side you look at it from) the ladder of escalation of the conflict in Ukraine, trying to take Russia out of this global game, tying her hands. The delivery of 48 4th-generation F-16 (Fighting Falcon) multifunctional fighter-interceptors F-35 (Fighting Falcon) from the arsenals of the Royal Netherlands Air Force as part of their transition to more modern F-XNUMXs will be the next stage in the sublimation of this escalation loop, its transition to a qualitatively new level. This combination, by the way, is paid by Britain. Did you have any questions about this?

The supply of American fighter jets to Ukraine is already a done deal. You shouldn't have any illusions here. The Yankees boil the Russian frog over low heat, gradually raising the temperature, throwing more and more firewood into the fading Ukrainian fire. With the “coalition of fighters”, the States are scrolling through the same scheme as with the previous “tank coalition”, and in the near future we will see American F-16s in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine. According to Politico, US national security adviser Jake Sullivan has already made it clear that Kyiv will definitely receive American fighter jets in the future.


- he said in an interview with this American publication.

At the same time, the high-ranking official did not specify how long it would take to train pilots from Ukraine to fly these aircraft:


Sullivan emphasized that the F-16s are not required by the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the counteroffensive now and are not included in the list of the most demanded weapons. But fighters will no doubt be needed by Ukraine "in the future." At the same time, the publication noted that Ukraine hopes to receive up to 50 F-16 fighters from the West. It also recalled that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky wants to create a "coalition of fighters" to receive aircraft, similar to the "tank coalition" formed earlier to transfer Western tanks.

Well, I have already said everything about the "coalition of fighters" above, it has already been created. According to the American news agency Reuters, the aviation coalition currently includes seven countries: Portugal, Great Britain, France, the United States, the Netherlands, Denmark and Belgium. But this is not the final list, and you can immediately delete the States from it - they will rake in the heat with European hands. Currently, almost all of these countries, except France, are re-equipping, switching to the latest fifth-generation F-35s, instead of the “oldies” of the fourth-generation F-16. Previously, we can talk about the transfer of 70 units of aircraft to Kyiv, the agency points out. Appetites, as you can see, are growing - already 70 aircraft! At the same time, the Office of the President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky claims that Western countries have already “practically made a decision” on the supply of combat aircraft to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This was stated by adviser to the head of the OPU Mikhail Podolyak. He believes that Kyiv "quickly enough" will receive long-range missiles and an aviation component. According to him, at this point there are only "two very intensively discussed issues" (probably training and logistics), as well as before the creation of the "tank coalition".

In turn, the American newspaper The Washington Post reported, referring to the same national security adviser to the US President Jake Sullivan, that Washington is closely monitoring Moscow's reaction to the supply of weapons to Kiev. The United States is trying to strike a balance and avoid the conflict on Ukrainian territory from escalating into World War III. Naturally, the Yankees are going to set fire only to Europe, while they themselves hope to sit out safely overseas. I note that back on May 19 (at the G7 summit), US President Joe Biden mentioned a possible permit for the re-export of F-16 fighters for deliveries to Ukraine. And a Pentagon spokesman said earlier that his department would not object to the provision of these aircraft to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by other countries.

Why is the US doing this? Do they not understand what it can threaten them with? Understand! Nothing!! This is their last chance to defeat Russia in Ukraine. I have already explained - The States have very little time, Grandpa Joe plays on the red flag, he has time pressure. The election campaign has already begun, the presidential race started on April 25, when Grandpa Joe announced that he was running for a second term. A little more than a year and a half is left before the US presidential election, if Grandpa Joe wants to keep his seat in the White House, then he needs to get out of Ukraine as soon as possible, leave such a trump card in the hands of Putin and Trump, he cannot (Donald Ibrahimovich will definitely pull him on his head). Yes, and China is running out, it is necessary to resolve the Chinese issue until 2027, until it militarily catches up with the United States (in economic terms, it has already overtaken the States). Biden needs to get rid of non-core assets in Ukraine as soon as possible, to fix the status quo there along the existing line of military contact, hanging this toxic asset on Russia and forcing Putin to deal with Ukrainian problems himself.

Hopes for a successful counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are fading right before our eyes. Putin multiplies by zero all the ammunition prepared for this (even in distant warehouses), taking advantage of his advantage in the air and the presence of long-range missiles. Zelensky was faced with the fact that, even having three mechanized strike corps trained in the West, he still had nothing to go on the offensive with - Putin stupidly knocked out all the ammunition prepared in advance for this, which is now only enough for a week of fighting. Either the APU was waiting for tanks, then good weather, now they are waiting for the BC, and it’s not a fact that Putin won’t knock him out again. Therefore, the States had to urgently initiate the provision of long-range fighters and cruise missiles to Kyiv in order to equalize the chances of the parties. Let me remind you that Grandpa Joe is running out of time, unlike Putin, who frankly drags him out.

The Kremlin's cunning plan

Recently, a well-known critic of the Kremlin, Igor Strelkov (aka Girkin), burst out on his Telegram channel with a lengthy article stigmatizing the tactics of the General Staff to capture Bakhmut. There he notes that all the activity of the RF Armed Forces after the Kharkov and Kherson "regroupings" was reduced to a war in the Donetsk-Luhansk direction, which in 8 months culminated only in the liberation of Wagner units at the beginning of Soledar (January 13 of this year) and now Bakhmut (May 20) , just in time for the anniversary of the liberation of Mariupol). There are no more successes. Behind all this, Igor Ivanovich suspects an agreement with Western "partners":


I am quoting his speech with cuts here, because I cannot quote it in full for ethical reasons.


Now Igor Ivanovich is waiting for the enemy's return move, “similar to the one made by the enemy in September, immediately after our valiant generals “tormented” a tiny town for a month. Sands on the outskirts of Donetsk "(c). True, Igor Ivanovich does not undertake to predict the direction of the main attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, leaving this right to Kiev. And therefore, he considers “the victory near Bakhmut: a) initially unnecessary (“distraction to an unusable object”); b) "Pyrrhic" (because it was not worth the effort and money expended on it, even approximately).

In principle, I had a normal attitude towards Strelkov and what he says and writes, given his past merits, and in his polemic with Prigozhin I was rather on his side than on the side of the head of the PMC. But I strongly disagree with his last maxims. How does Igor Ivanovich know the strategic plans of the Kremlin? Not everyone in the Kremlin knows about them either! From Igor Ivanovich of the trench, it seems that the Kremlin had to go west, take more and more territories, lay the lives of thousands of soldiers on it, announce more and more mobilizations, and thus multiply Ukraine by zero. What for? The Kremlin has a different plan. From Igor Ivanovich, the trench was somehow not visible that since September, after the Kherson “regrouping”, we have been digging trenches throughout the LBS, mining fields, burying “dragon teeth”, building fortifications and tearing off anti-tank ditches. For what? To go on the offensive? Isn't it clear that the Kremlin has a different plan? Putin was going to sit out Washington on the defensive. Faced with the fact that Ukraine cannot be defeated with conventional weapons without great sacrifices, he changed tactics and now takes Biden to starvation, knowing that time is running out for him. But Putin has a wagon of time. He can wait, grinding the Armed Forces of Ukraine in local battles, and damaging its energy infrastructure, forcing Biden to spend forces and resources on maintaining fire in this stove intended for disposal by himself.

At some point in time, the hunter and prey switched places. If Igor Ivanovich hasn't noticed, then I'll tell him that since September only Wagner has been participating in the battles, the federals hold the perimeter and conserve their forces. It is not clear where Putin's ambush regiment, recruited by mobilization of 169 people, is hiding. The entire intelligence of the Pentagon was knocked off their feet, they still cannot detect them. Putin is waiting! Time is working for him. Already Biden and his mongrels have to be nervous. Zelensky is almost kicked into battle, until September 2023 he must either kill himself against the Russian impregnable wall, or break through it with his head. Both options will suit the States. After that, Biden hopes to sign peace with Moscow on any terms (according to the Korean scenario - no peace, no war). And why did Igor Ivanovich decide that these "any" conditions would suit the Kremlin? Not at all! That's when that very ambush regiment of Putin will emerge, and it is still unknown where he will stop. Colonel McGregor, a former adviser to the head of the Pentagon, for example, believes that Putin will regain control of Kharkov and Odessa within the next two months. I do not share such optimism of the former adviser to the head of the Pentagon, but I believe that Odessa is definitely on the maps of the Kremlin. We must first cut off Kyiv from the sea, and then we can talk about the world. But not before!

Washington's cunning plan

But this is precisely what Washington does not like. That is why he raises the degree of conflict by providing Kyiv with his F-16s. Let's first understand what kind of animal it is?

General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon (English literally - Fighting Falcon, named after the mascot of the US Air Force Academy in Colorado Springs) is an American multifunctional light fighter of the 4th generation. Developed in 1974 by General Dynamics. Transferred to service in 1978. In 1993, General Dynamics sold its aircraft business to Lockheed Corporation (now Lockheed Martin). F-16, due to its versatility and relatively low cost, is the most massive 4th generation fighter (over 4604 units have been built at the moment). It is in service with 25 countries, for 2019 it was the most common combat aircraft in the world. The last of 2231 units. F-16s for the US Air Force were handed over to the customer in 2005. The upgraded F-16 continues to be produced for export to this day. The last to receive them in 2018-2022 were Bahrain (16 units in the F-16V version), Slovakia (14 units) and Bulgaria (8 units). The cost of a unit of a product fluctuates in the range of 30-35 million dollars.

Now let's deal with the donor countries. This means that the Netherlands had 2019 of them as of 61. in the F-16AM / BM configuration, Portugal has 26 units. F-16AM and 4 units. F-16BM, Belgium - 48 units. F-16AM and 10 units. F-16BM and Denmark - 34 units. F-16AM and 10 units. F-16BM. All data are current as of 2019. But this is not the funniest thing - you will, of course, laugh, but neither France nor Britain has an F-16. As part of the French Aerospace Forces, of combat fighter-bombers, only French-made aircraft - Mirages and Rafales of various modifications, and the British Royal Air Force are equipped with American F-35s and European Eurofighter Typhoons. What F-16s are they going to deliver to Kyiv, I honestly don't know? But Dutch and Belgian planes will be enough for Zelensky to give us a fun life. If you think that this is a very expensive pleasure, then I have to disappoint you. With a unit cost of even $ 35 million, 60 pieces will be pulled into 2,1 yards of greenery, and 70 pieces. - only 2,45. At the end of the 2023 fiscal year, the United States just lost $3 billion. They urgently need to be spent before September 30, although the British threatened to pay for this delivery to Kyiv.

Well, I think these friends will figure it out for themselves, who will pay for it, and let's figure out what kind of F-16A / B configuration is this? And this is exactly what Kyiv needs. These are air defense fighter-interceptors upgraded under the ADF program. Those. Americans converted F-16A/B fighter-bombers into F-16AM/VM air defense fighter-interceptors. The upgraded vehicles received an improved radar capable of tracking small targets, and launchers for AIM-7 Sparrow missiles capable of hitting objects beyond visual visibility. Air Defense F-16s can carry up to six AIM-120, AIM-7 or AIM-9 air-to-air guided missiles. That is, if anyone has not yet understood, these aircraft are just designed to hunt for our cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as for our planes and helicopters.

We must be aware that permission to supply the Armed Forces of F-16 fighters and long-range missiles is Biden's last trump card, which he pulled out in order to tilt the database in Ukraine in his favor. Why such a hurry? Because in Washington they realized that their fix idea with the spring-summer offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine through the efforts of Putin has already failed. It was doomed before, but it is now that Washington understood it too. The events of recent days, which have not yet been reported to you, prompted them to this conclusion. In part, I have already mentioned that Putin, with his “villainous” massive May missile raids, seriously undermined the readiness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the offensive, depriving them of the operational stock of ammunition. He needs to be taken back to Nezalezhnaya, and this is the time, and there are no guarantees that they will not suffer the fate of the previous ones. Because Putin continues to bomb Ukrainian infrastructure on a daily basis, especially the southern direction through Romania to Odessa and Nikolaev. A series of crazy arrivals to Pavlograd, Khmelnytsky, Odessa, Nikolaev, Zaporozhye, Dnepropetrovsk, Kyiv and other settlements of Ukraine is a real confirmation of this. Millions of US taxpayer dollars have already blown into the air, and the villain Putin promises not to reduce the intensity of shelling, taking on increased obligations. It is for this, in order to neutralize the advantage of the Russians in the air, that air defense fighter-interceptors are needed.

But if that were Biden's only sadness. The offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was on the verge of failure, because on May 5 (note, a day after the attacks of Ukrainian UAVs on the Kremlin), one of Yermak’s advisers, namely the chief adviser to the Office of the President of Ukraine Oleksiy Titarenko, was eliminated as a result of a rocket and artillery strike in the area of ​​Chasov Yar. The information is reliable, because the death of his adviser the next day was personally confirmed by the head of the OPU Andriy Yermak. What his adviser was doing at the front line, Yermak did not say, but it is clear that he was not there alone, but with a group of senior high-ranking officers and politicians. And on May 21 RIA News citing a representative of the hacker group "Joker DNR", it reported that the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valery Zaluzhny was seriously wounded, which he received in early May during a missile attack by the Russian Aerospace Forces on the command post of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Kherson. What the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine did there, the representative of the hacker group does not say, but referring to agents in the Ukrainian army, he says that General Zaluzhny, as a result of shrapnel wounds, will not soon be able to return to his duties (more precisely, never, after a craniotomy is not enough who succeeded, will live, work as the Commander-in-Chief - no). As you know, there are no irreplaceable people, but Zaluzhny for Zelensky was just that.

And one should not be surprised why Zelensky himself practically does not appear in Kiev after the raid on the Kremlin, plowing French, Dutch and American military and government aircraft around Europe, the Middle East and Japan. I have already писалthat after the attack on the Kremlin, a course was taken for the physical elimination of some particularly odious and significant personalities in Kyiv. The jokes ended with a blow to the Kremlin, Putin took off his white gloves and hung his white tuxedo in the closet. The account of liquidated individuals is already open. The loss of the commander-in-chief seriously complicated the implementation of the plan for the spring offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which smoothly turned into a summer one, and now risks not taking place at all.

Biden will try to enter into negotiations with Putin, using as a strengthening of his negotiating position not the hypothetical successes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in their failed counteroffensive, but the fact of the transfer of air defense fighters and long-range air and ground-based missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Have you forgotten that Biden needs peace by autumn? Oblique, crooked, but the world on its own terms, to die already from Ukraine, hanging it on the Europeans and Putin. But how to force Putin to it? This is where Grandpa Joe gets his last trump card from his bottomless pants - air defense fighters. What will Putin's response be if he is not satisfied with the world on Biden's terms, let's think about it? In this case, blackmail won't work, Grandpa Joe has already quadrupled the stakes. There is nowhere else to raise them, the last argument will be only the supply of tactical nuclear weapons to Kyiv. It is clear that no one will go for it. So we are at the finish line.

What could be the actions of the Kremlin, if the representative of the White House, mentioned above, Jake Sullivan, in an interview with CNN, said just now that Washington would not object to the use of American weapons by the Armed Forces of Ukraine for attacks on Crimea. Oppachki, the last barrier is removed!


- he said.

For those who do not know, I want to recall three points of Russia's geostrategic influence that it will never surrender - these are Kaliningrad (formerly Koenigsberg), Sevastopol and Tartus (naval anti-tank defense in Syria). We must clearly understand where we will never leave. Washington and London are encroaching on the Crimea, and its mongrels are already opening their mouths, poking their crooked paws at Kaliningrad (in the Middle East, we have already pinched their tail, I hope for a long time). So, what could be Putin's response to the encroachment on the Crimea and Sevastopol? The simplest and most primitive solution is to move the border of Ukraine away from Crimea to the range of long-range missiles and the range of NATO fighters. But if everything is clear with ground-based missiles, their range is limited to a distance of 300 km, then with aircraft and air-based missiles, everything is not so simple. I gave you the combat radius of the F-16 higher in the performance characteristics of the product, with additional external tanks it exceeds 1,5 thousand km, add to this the range of destruction of the air-launched missile itself (at least 500 km), as a result we get 2 thousand km , and something needs to be done about it, because in fact we run into the Polish border.

I doubt very much that the non-brothers will use their own airfields within the reach of our missiles as basing and jumping airfields for newly received toys. If this happens, they will soon again be left without aircraft. I understand that they do not feel sorry for them, but the West knows how to count its money. This means that Polish and Romanian airfields, the same Rzeszow, Deblin, Lask, Malbork, Powidz, Poznan-Kshesiny, Svidvin, may well be chosen as base airfields. After which they will become a legitimate target for our missiles. And Article 5 of the NATO Charter on collective defense cannot be connected to this (although, why should we be afraid, since February 24, 2022, we have already been at war with the entire NATO bloc). We hit the Polish airfields, after which Poland will declare war on us. We will not be able to fight on two fronts with conventional weapons, and therefore we will use tactical nuclear weapons. After that, the whole of Europe will already be on fire, and Grandpa Joe will be able to safely switch to China. This is his cunning plan. But is such a development of the plot included in the plans of China, from which I began my story? I'm sure not.

Colonel MacGregor, whose opinion I have already cited, for example, believes that the United States is taking a big risk by provoking Russia and China at the same time. In order to fight with Russia, the United States does not have 600-700 thousand soldiers to send them to Europe, and for the war with China, while simultaneously supporting the Zelensky regime, America has nothing at all. According to the retired colonel, the United States now simply will not stretch the confrontation on two fronts:


Think about the words of the former adviser to the head of the Pentagon in the administration of President Trump, he knows what he is talking about. Biden approached his finish line. His tour in Ukraine ends this autumn. It's not long to wait. I hope Putin and comrade. Xi will not let him realize his cunning plan. A nuclear fire in Europe is not yet part of their plans.

I put an end to this, or rather, an ellipsis ... Your Mr. Z.