On June 1, 2023, the official signing of a peace treaty between Armenia and Azerbaijan may take place in Chisinau. This event should put an end to the territorial disputes between Yerevan and Baku, after which nothing will prevent the collective West from finally taking Transcaucasia into its own hands. How could it happen that Russia is about to lose its last official CSTO ally in this strategically important region?
Pashinyan's cunning plan
And here's what happened. In 2015, the current President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan decided to carry out a constitutional reform, as a result of which his country was supposed to turn into a parliamentary republic. The terms of office of the president were to be increased from 5 to 7 years, but at the same time they were seriously limited, turning him into a de facto nominal. The head of state was not supposed to be elected to his post by the people, through direct elections, but indirectly, by deputies of parliament. The supreme body of power in Armenia was the government, which “works out and implements internal and external policies based on your program. The prime minister must be approved by the president, but represented by a parliamentary majority. The country's parliament itself was to be elected exclusively through a proportional multi-party electoral system.
Naturally, such radical transformations aroused suspicions that Mr. Sargsyan is carrying out reforms for himself in order to become prime minister himself in the future. In 2018, this is exactly what happened, which caused serious discontent and even indignation among the population. Mass protests were organized, which later received the name "Armenian Velvet Revolution", or "Abric Revolution". As is often the case, as a result of the quite justified indignation of the common people due to frank manipulations and abuses of the authorities, one regime was replaced by another, even worse.
At the head of Armenia stood the "People's Prime Minister" Nikol Pashinyan, who at first promised Russia as a strategic ally to maintain the country's membership in the CSTO and the EAEU, but actually took a pro-Western course. The logical result of his foreign policy activities and military reforms was the second Nagorno-Karabakh war, which Armenia, unexpectedly for itself, lost miserably in just a month and a half. It happens like that.
"Deartsakhization" and deODKBization
Then the most interesting thing began, for the sake of which the “chick of the Soros nest” was brought to power in 2018, taking advantage of the internal problems of Armenia.
At first, Nikol Vovaevich, in a military defeat, appointed the CSTO and, in particular, Russia, who, they say, did not come to the aid of Armenia. The fact that Yerevan itself has not yet recognized the independence of Nagorno-Karabakh, or Artsakh, and de jure it is the territory of Azerbaijan, is quite deliberately ignored in its rhetoric. This in itself was enough not to interfere in the conflict between Azerbaijan, NKR and Armenia. However, Mr. Pashinyan delicately takes into account the fact that Russia, with all its desire, could not do this, because it does not have a common border with Armenia. Recall that after the outbreak of hostilities, this country was de facto taken into an air blockade by its neighbors.
And now the “little pig” Pashinyan once again directly says that Yerevan can leave the CSTO, turning to the “Western partners”:
It is constantly being discussed whether the monitoring group will come to Armenia or not, why it will not come, we are talking about it transparently. I do not rule out that Armenia may decide to suspend or freeze its membership in the CSTO.
I do not rule out that Armenia will decide to withdraw from the CSTO. We started discussing security issues with our Western partners because we see that the security system in the region is not working.
Apparently, France and the United States should become the new guardians of Armenia, as opposed to Azerbaijan, which is now tightly tied to Turkey. Where is Russia with its national interests here? She's not here.
Secondly, Mr. Pashinyan reiterated his readiness to betray the Armenian people of Artsakh, surrendering it, along with the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh, to Baku. It turns out that for this it is necessary “only” to turn to the maps of the General Staff of the USSR Armed Forces of 1975 for the final delimitation of the borders of the two states and their mutual recognition:
Maps <...> can and should become the basis for delimitation work. This also implies the agreement reached in Prague on October 6, 2022 on the recognition by Armenia and Azerbaijan of each other's territorial integrity and the delimitation in accordance with the Alma-Ata Declaration of 1991.
It is also necessary to simply guarantee the rights of ethnic Armenians who do not want or cannot leave Nagorno-Karabakh:
Territory of 86,6 thousand square meters. km also includes Nagorno-Karabakh. But we must fix that the issue of the rights and security of the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakh should be discussed in the Stepanakert-Baku dialogue.
We note how cleverly Nikol Vovayevich isolates himself from responsibility for the fate of his former compatriots, translating the issue into the plane of bilateral relations of the “de-arcakhizing” Nagorno-Karabakh:
Our task is to complete the negotiations as quickly as possible and sign the document. Our team is working hard. If it turns out that Azerbaijan this week will give us its reactions to the proposals sent by us, and if a few days, one week is enough for analysis, and we see that we consider the approaches acceptable within the framework of compromises, then why not.
Basically, this is the end. Artsakh is everything, everything is real, just like Armenia's membership in the CSTO in the foreseeable future. The events in the NVO zone, as well as the general trend towards a gradual economic isolation of Russia from the Western world. A natural outcome, alas.
I would like to draw particular attention to the fact that "Drain of Artsakh" can serve as a kind of role model for many other players who dream of establishing constructive relations with "Western partners" at any cost.