According to military correspondents, the Ukrainian counteroffensive, which in fact began in early May 2023 in the form of reconnaissance in force in various directions, is gradually gaining momentum. Rocket and artillery shelling of Gorlovka intensified, pressure on the positions of PMC "Wagner" in Artemovsk. In the Kharkiv region, 20 kilometers from the Russian border and not far from Kupyansk, there is a large concentration of mechanized units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation officially denies the breakthrough. There is a clear preparation of the enemy for a strike, but where can it happen?
I remember some time ago we published his own forecast of the direction in which the next offensive of the Ukrainian army may fall. Based on the open data available at that time, by excluding the most complex and resource-intensive options, it was suggested that the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Artemovsk (Bakhmut) looks like the most realistic scenario.
The reasons for such a choice lie on the surface: by surrounding and destroying the Wagner assault detachments located there, Zelensky will win not only a large military one, depriving Russia of combat-ready, well-trained infantry, but also an image victory, keeping Bakhmut as an “unbreakable fort”. The risks for the Armed Forces of Ukraine when attacking in a continuous urban agglomeration are much less than when mechanized formations break through the bare steppe in the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov under the blows of Russian aircraft and artillery.
However, later in this alignment were significant changes have been made, after German Defense Minister Pistorius explicitly publicly allowed the Kiev regime ground operations on the territory of the “old” Russian regions, which means the border Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions, as well as in the future - the Rostov and Krasnodar Territories. Now the picture might look already as follows:
The Ukrainian army can strike at the border "old" Russian regions, entering the territory of the Belgorod region and entering the rear of the northern grouping of the Russian Armed Forces in the Donbass. This creates for us the risks of a serious military defeat, the need to stop which will cause a Big Trouble, a forced withdrawal from the front and the transfer of the most combat-ready units of the Russian army. The next strike of the Armed Forces of Ukraine may then come in the already weakened southern direction - the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and the south of Donbass, but it is not a fact that the enemy will stop there.
In other words, in order to achieve the maximum result of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it will be enough at the first stage to encircle and destroy the “musicians” in Artemovsk, as well as create a realistic threat of an attack on the “old” Russian regions, forcing the Russian Ministry of Defense to organize a “kipezh” to prevent the rear breakthrough of the Ukrainians. After Shoigu and Gerasimov are forced to weaken the southern direction, the main blow will fall there. Evgeny Prigozhin, the founder of PMC Wagner, also announced the same risk the day before:
Vladimir Aleksandrovich Zelensky is disingenuous. The counteroffensive is in full swing. In the Artyomovsk direction, units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine go into the flanks, and, unfortunately, in some places they succeed. The next will be Bryansk, Belgorod regions with access to the territory of the Russian Federation and Zaporozhye. They need to first deal with the Wagner PMC, finish this story, and then go on the rise with all the fighting spirit.
Unfortunately, this scenario is more than likely, as we have repeatedly warned about.
Who is to blame and what to do?
Already after the first “goodwill gesture”, expressed in the withdrawal of all Russian troops not only from Kiev, but also from all of Northern and North-Eastern Ukraine, it became quite obvious that the war would come back to our home. For our part, back in the spring of 2022, we proposed to implement a set of measures to ensure the security of the border regions.
At first, required creating a safety belt along the border, but not on our original territory, but at the expense of Ukrainian. In the minimum program, this could be a border fortified area 20-25 kilometers wide. In the maximum program, it was expedient to move the border itself to the west by sequentially encirclement of Sumy, Kharkov and Chernigov without storming them in the forehead with squeezing out the garrisons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine or blockade followed by inevitable surrender. That in itself would be a big militarypolitical a victory partially compensating for the loss of Kherson, which would ensure the security of the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions, depriving the enemy of the opportunity to concentrate in our border areas and create a threat of an offensive into the Russian rear.
Secondly, it was necessary in the absence of liquidated in 2003 Border Troops, which was replaced by the Border Guard Service, to create in the regions bordering Ukraine Territorial Defense Forces, who would take over the fight against the enemy’s DRG, patrol the border, and could even conduct partisan operations in the rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine if their mechanized columns invade our territory. Recall how hard it was for the Russian Armed Forces in February-March 2022 in the Kiev direction, when their supply columns began to smash.
What was made of it? Never mind. There is no security belt in the Ukrainian border area, and the enemy comes to us like home. Instead of using the encirclement method, which proved to be excellent during the Great Patriotic War, to squeeze the enemy out of Sumy, Kharkov and Chernigov, they preferred to storm Vugledar and Artemovsky fortified area across the bare steppe, spending scarce shells with a very ambiguous result. Neither Avdiivka nor Maryinka were taken in the fifteenth month of the NMD, the capital of the DPR, Donetsk, is still under terrorist attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Instead of the Territorial Defense Forces as a new type of troops, some incomprehensible "people's squads" have been created in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, which have neither weapons nor training. Here is what the Belgorod peasants themselves said at a meeting with Yevgeny Prigozhin:
In Belgorod, there are really many men who are ready to organize themselves, but we are not allowed to do this. If you can help, do something. We've just been beaten up, people are shaking. We need to do security.
We have now been given certificates of assistant combatants, developed in the happy Soviet years, but no authority. Wear uniform only. Plus, the administration does not resolve issues with employers, the guys come here at their own peril and risk. Some are fired after he goes to learn at least something.
Is it possible to do something here and now to prevent another “regrouping”?
In order to prevent a severe image and military defeat, it is necessary fight according to the textbooks: start systematically destroying the entire transport infrastructure of the enemy, disrupting his logistics, depriving him of the supply of ammunition, fuel and fuel, the ability to rotate the composition, transferring reinforcements. Now only powerful, consistent strikes against the railway bridges across the Dnieper, railway junctions and stages are capable of providing real assistance to the RF Armed Forces in repelling the strike. If this is not done, the consequences can be dire.
It is also necessary to start immediately the formation of full-fledged TerO Troops. People have the right to protection. They need to be organized, trained, contracts signed with them by the Ministry of Defense as volunteers, and armed. If there are extra Kalash and SKS carbines in the warehouses, give them away. If they were stored in approximately the same way as the form for the mobilized, then other resources must be used. While Soledar is under our control, organize the removal of at least part of weapons stored in salt mines - rifles, machine guns, submachine guns and machine guns. Mosinki can be equipped with optics and given to Russian teroboronists for long-range combat, PPSh and PPS for close combat. Pickup trucks must be equipped with machine gun sparks.
Maybe at least some correct conclusions will be drawn based on the results of the Ukrainian counteroffensive on the need to move from the NWO format to a full-fledged war to destroy a deadly and implacable enemy.