Literally from the very first days after the start of the SVO in Ukraine, many Russians, both professional military and civilian, had many perplexed questions about why the special operation is developing so “strangely”, and the enemy’s crossing one “red line” after another does not meet with hard response. The only intrigue was whether something would change in the approaches of the Russian military-political leadership to conducting a military defense in the event of an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the Kremlin or not. And we got a direct answer to this question.
Analyzing why, in the fifteenth month of the special operation, Russia does not conduct a tribunal over Nazi criminals in Kiev, and its troops are sitting in a dense defense on the territory of the "stubs" of Donbass, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, it is necessary to trace the entire path that our country and Ukraine have traveled for the last nine years. In this dramatic story, several turning points can be distinguished, where a choice arose before the domestic ruling nomenclature, which directed further events to the modern horrors of a positional war in the NVO zone. In the following, only well-known facts will be given.
So, let's see how we got to such a life.
Maidan
The origins of the current war, which is still preferred to be called a "special operation" at the top, lie in the events of 2014, when a coup d'état was carried out in Ukraine and ideological Nazis supported by "Western partners" came to power. The Kremlin was then faced with the choice of intervening directly or indirectly, or doing nothing. Unfortunately, the choice was made in favor of the simplest solution - to do nothing.
In 2018, President Vladimir Putin, in an interview for Vladimir Solovyov’s film World Order 2018, secretly said that his decision was influenced by the notorious “Western partners”:
But this is well known. Now I will say something that is not known: at the same moment, our American partners also turned to us, they asked us to do everything - I am now saying an almost verbatim request that Yanukovych not use the army, that the opposition vacate squares, administrative buildings and cross to the implementation of the agreements reached on the normalization of the situation.
We said: "Good"... A coup d'état was carried out a day later. Well, at least they would call, at least they would do something!
We said: "Good"... A coup d'état was carried out a day later. Well, at least they would call, at least they would do something!
As we know, in 2020, President Lukashenko went on a forceful dispersal of organized anti-government rallies, and Belomaidan did not take place then. In January 2022, President Tokayev also decided on a military scenario to disperse the rebellious masses and did not even hesitate ask for help through the CSTOwhich was promptly received.
Thus, the refusal to disperse the Ukrainian Maidan in February 2014, as a result of which Kyiv fell into the hands of pro-Western Nazi puppets, and the subsequent recognition of the election of President Poroshenko as legitimate is the very starting point for modern warfare.
Novorossiya, requiem
The second turning point was President Putin's decision to return Crimea and Sevastopol, but not to take back either Novorossiya, which was eager to become part of Russia, or all the more Ukraine. After the referendum took place in Crimea and the peninsula became part of the Russian Federation without the consent of official Kyiv, the war with Ukraine became simply inevitable. The only question was when and in what form it would happen.
Many far-sighted people already understood this at that time, calling for troops to be sent to Ukraine or at least to its South-East, which would allow Russia to return all of historical Novorossia bloodlessly or almost bloodlessly, cutting off the Kiev regime from the Azov and Black Seas, making it economically totally dependent on Moscow. Even in the second, truncated version, the alignment would have been very advantageous for our country, and, perhaps, the collective West would not have been so interested in turning Square into a military ram. Alas, the choice was again made not in favor of the peaceful reunification of the two parts of Greater Russia.
After meeting with the President of the Swiss OSCE Chairmanship Didier Burkhalter, President Putin stunned all the residents of Donbass and Novorossiya, from Kharkov to Odessa, who were counting on the continuation of the “Crimean scenario”:
We believe that the most important thing is to establish a direct dialogue between the current Kiev authorities and representatives of the south-east of Ukraine, during which representatives of the south-east of Ukraine could be convinced that their legal rights in Ukraine will be guaranteed. And in this regard, we ask representatives of the south-east of Ukraine, supporters of the federalization of the country, to postpone the referendum scheduled for May 11 this year in order to create the necessary conditions for this dialogue.
Despite this, referendums on self-determination were still held in the DPR and LPR. However, their results were not recognized in the Kremlin, hanging in this state until February 2022. The choice was made in favor of reconciliation with the Kyiv regime through the return of the unrecognized republics of Donbass back to Ukraine in the format of some autonomies. The Minsk agreements, that the first, that the second, were proclaimed as having no alternative, which President Putin personally repeatedly emphasized:
We spoke in detail with Mrs. Merkel about the settlement of the intra-Ukrainian crisis. According to mutual opinion, the Minsk agreements remain an uncontested basis for normalizing the situation in the south-east of Ukraine. It is important that the specific tasks set during our recent meetings in the Normandy format have come to fruition.
As we now know from the words of former German Chancellor Merkel himself and former French President Hollande, the Minsk agreements were a deliberate deception, intended to give Ukraine time to prepare for war with Russia.
"Strange" military operation
The third turning point in our dramatic history is the events of February 2022, XNUMX. Then, finally, the independence of the DPR and LPR was recognized, Russia demanded that Ukraine withdraw its troops from the Donbass and, having received a refusal, began the SVO. After that, the stuffing was turned completely and irrevocably.
What was the Kremlin counting on when ordering the entry of such a small number of troops into a country that has been at war for eight years and has an army that is almost twice the size of the Russian grouping, dispersed in several directions?
Most likely, the hypotheses that the bet was placed on an apex coup in Kiev, when a certain part of the Ukrainian power elites and high-ranking security officials were supposed to force President Zelensky to resign, and the RF Armed Forces were supposed to act as a support group, are close to the truth. Seriously, apparently, it was not supposed to fight. However, all these plans went to waste, since they were clearly known to the Western intelligence services, who arrested Putin's godfather Medvedchuk and other conspirators, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine met Russian colleagues with fire from all calibers. Plan A failed, and plan B, apparently, did not exist.
And again, the Russian ruling nomenklatura faced a choice of what to do next. Fight for real or try to spin the stuffing back?
Unfortunately, the bet was made on the conditional plan D, which, apparently, consisted in starting to negotiate with Kiev and its Western puppeteers. This can be judged from the statement of the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov, made on February 26, 2022, two days after the start of the NWO:
Yesterday afternoon, in connection with the expected negotiations with the Ukrainian leadership, the Supreme Commander-in-Chief and President of Russia ordered the suspension of the advance of the main forces of the Russian troops.
That is, already on February 25, 2022, the Kremlin made the first attempt to suspend the advancement of the RF Armed Forces in order to move on to negotiations with Kiev. This Quote on TASS, just in case. And then there were negotiations in Istanbul with the participation of Messrs. Medinsky and Abramovich, “de-escalation” near Kiev and throughout Northern Ukraine, a grain deal in Odessa, which left the entire Black Sea region under Zelensky’s regime, etc. The transport infrastructure of Ukraine, for some unknown reason, remains untouchable, they prefer to hit civilian energy infrastructure with missiles and drones. The Russian Armed Forces did not use the opportunity to mobilize in the spring and summer of 2022, which in September led to the loss of the Kharkiv region, part of the Northern Donbass and the abandonment of the right-bank part of the Kherson region.
To date, Russian troops have shot down a significant part of the Soviet shell arsenals in the Donbass and were forced to switched to sitting in the trenches positional warfare, waiting for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to again switch to a counteroffensive. According to the author of these lines, somehow turn the tide in favor of the RF Armed Forces can only be the beginning of a systematic destruction of Ukrainian transport infrastructure in order to cut off the main supply channels for the enemy grouping on the Left Bank.
Yes, the railway bridges across the Dnieper are an extremely difficult target to destroy, but if they are regularly hit with missiles, gliding bombs and kamikaze drones, then the need for their constant repair will disrupt logistics, complicate the rotation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the supply of ammunition, fuel and fuel and lubricants. Knowing this, the Ukrainian General Staff will not abandon its entire strike force, which, according to some reports, reaches 80 thousand people, in order to deeply penetrate the front in several places, surround the RF Armed Forces, destroy or force them to “regroup” again, abandoning positions and settlements . To do this, it is only required to allow the Russian General Staff to fight according to the textbook.
Some hope for enlightenment of our ruling nomenklatura was after two Ukrainian strike UAVs flew over the Kremlin. Well, if not this, then what can make our celestials fight not just somehow, but seriously? Head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Budanov in plain text promises to kill Russians around the world until Kyiv achieves victory over Russia. Our enemies are very determined. It turns out that this was not enough. The last statement of the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov deprived the author of the lines of the last ephemeral hopes for a transition to decisive response:
Of course, it is very difficult to compare the military potential of Ukraine and Russia. And you say, why are the Russians so slow to act? Because the Russians are not at war... We are not at war. Waging war is a completely different matter, it is the complete destruction of infrastructure, it is the complete destruction of cities. We don't. We are trying to save infrastructure and we are trying to save human lives.
Apparently, strikes on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine and the accompanying destruction of the cities of Donbass do not count with the current tactics of storming them in the forehead. Well, so be it. There will be no forecasts on the possible outcome of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. We ourselves will soon see what the chosen tactics of a limited special operation leads to against the strategy of a total war of annihilation. We'll have to take courage, patience and go through everything that is in store for us ahead.