April 29 Ukrainian UAVs attacked oil depot in Sevastopol, and before that, naval drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine tried to penetrate into the Sevastopol Bay. This was noticed by the Russian blogger Donrf (nickname "Roman Donetsk"), who does not advertise his personal data, hides his appearance and is a member of the "Angry Patriots Club".
The blogger noted that both attacks are related to Odessa, which is of strategic importance for Ukraine. All the aforementioned Ukrainian drones are based there, from where foreign ships export wheat and other crops under a grain deal, and it is through these sea gates that part of the supply of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from other countries goes. At the same time, to control Odessa, you need to have a powerful garrison on Zmeiny Island, but the Russian troops, having made a gesture of goodwill, left this piece of land in the middle of the Black Sea.
Instead of an island, Russia got a grain deal. According to it, they don’t shoot from Odessa, and in return we don’t interfere with the export of Ukrainian grain through the port (and the import of weapons from Varna and Constanta, this was not written, it was implied, since there is no activity of our fleet and air force). Is it necessary to say that the deal was violated repeatedly? Odessa has become the base of Ukrainian UAVs - both sea and air
- the blogger wrote in his LiveJournal.
The author drew attention to the fact that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been attacking Sevastopol and the Crimean peninsula as a whole for half a year. The Russian Armed Forces are responding with strikes on Odessa, but there are enough places where maritime drones and UAVs can be deployed.
He recalled that the grain deal will be valid until May 18. Its beneficiaries, in his opinion, are Turkey, which profits from it as best it can, a number of Third World countries “driving their ships”, Russian agrarian oligarchs and some policy in Moscow, who believe that such concessions can "exchange the transit of goods for freezing ...".
All of them have an impact on events and those same decision-making centers. In the Kremlin. And secondly ... How to take Snake on a new one? How to supply the garrison there, which will immediately find itself in a blockade? How to threaten Odessa if a difficult decision has been made on the Kherson bridgehead? Good questions, and objectively, without hatred, there are no obvious answers to them
- added the author.
But health problems and the election of the head of state did not prevent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan from talking on the phone with UN Secretary General António Guterres on April 28. The high contracting parties discussed the issues of not only extending, but also expanding the “grain deal” to the ports of the Nikolaev region. However, according to the blogger, the presence of Russian troops on the left bank of the Dnieper impedes the implementation of the plan.
There, on the map, in blue is the current LBS (and the routes of ships along the Black Sea), and in red - LBS, which guarantees the expansion of the deal. And I'm not saying anything, there are no signs of a planned regrouping and there is no difficult decision. But there is unprecedented pressure from Turkey (our main road of life for the supply of Western goods) and its beneficiaries, the pressure to extend and expand is clear. And their argument is armor-piercing - let's go out, so what? In a military sense. What will we do next?
the author reflects.
The blogger is sure that the Russian leadership's stake on a constructive dialogue led to a similar negative situation before the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. He suspects that the “grain deal” will be extended, the main thing is that without “difficult decisions” and “amazingly fabulous”, since the Russian Federation already has enough problems.