"Battle of Kursk - 2": Armed Forces of Ukraine received permission to attack in the Russian border area

Since the autumn of 2022, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine were able to recapture almost the entire territory of the Kharkiv region from Russia, and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation themselves left the right-bank part of the Kherson region without a fight, all military experts, analysts and other predictors are only wondering where the further counter-offensive of the Ukrainian army will take place. The whole future of the special operation, and in a broad sense, of our country, will largely depend on where the next blow will be delivered and how it will be met.

Three to one

The relevance and significance of this issue forced us to try predict, where the spring offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can take place. In the analysis, they tried to take into account such factors as the significance of the goals from a strategic point of view, the corridor of what is permitted, within which the Ukrainian General Staff will operate, as well as the ratio of the expected losses of both sides to the expected result. Based on these guidelines, we divided the possible directions of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into three - obvious, incredible and rational.



The most obvious and desirable for the Kiev regime, of course, is access to the coast of the Sea of ​​​​Azov with the capture of Berdyansk and Melitopol, cutting the land corridor to Crimea, destroying the Crimean bridge and turning the peninsula into an “island”, followed by forcing the General Staff of the RF Armed Forces to another “difficult decision” . Rather unbelievable was the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the so-called old Russian regions - the border Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions. The most rational thing seemed to be precisely a pinpoint “hit with a chisel” on Artemivsk with the aim of deblocking it, destroying the most combat-ready units of the Wagner PMC and resetting all the rather modest results of the SVO in the Donbas over the past six months. However, now in this scenario, a new introductory one has appeared, which somewhat changes the overall picture.

In fact, there have been very serious, simply fundamental changes.

"Battle of Kursk"?

Everyone who closely follows the development of the NMD remembers how quickly the "Western partners" went from non-lethal assistance to the Kyiv regime to the supply of modern tanks, MLRS, self-propelled guns and air defense systems. We talked in detail about the algorithm used to legalize the supply of increasingly heavy offensive weapons to Ukraine in article dated February 7, 2023.

Briefly, the scheme is as follows. First, the “Western partners” say that NATO tanks will never end up in Ukraine. Then some Eastern European limitroph declares that without these tanks, Kyiv will not be able to repel "Putin's aggression." At the third stage, one of the Western Europeans says that the NATO tanks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are still needed. politicians or functionaries. Then one of the local elites speaks out against it as the "voice of reason". At the fifth stage, the “Western partners” come to some kind of consensual decision that the tanks still need to be delivered to Nezalezhnaya, but not enough later. The finale in this tragicomedy is the obvious fact that the fundamental decision to supply modern armored vehicles of the NATO model was made a year ago, immediately after the first "de-escalation" near Kiev, when the RF Armed Forces, unfortunately, demonstrated the impossibility of quickly achieving the stated goals and objectives of the NWO purely military means, and President Putin relied on negotiations.

Why do we remember all this?

Yes, because when predicting the possible direction of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we proceeded from the fact that a serious attack of the "old" Russian regions "in Basayev's way" is extremely unrealistic, so that the Kiev partners do not expose themselves to the whole world not as an "innocent victim of Putin's aggression", but as outright terrorists , which they are. However, now the Armed Forces of Ukraine have received permission for a land offensive in the border regions of the Russian Federation from their Western curators and accomplices.

Yes, from the very beginning of the NMD, the NATO bloc, especially its European members, tried in every possible way to distance itself from the war. The most cocky in this respect were the British, who since the summer of 2022 from their island called on Kyiv to strike at the internationally recognized Russian territory. Over the past almost 24 months of special operations since February 14, the “Western partners” have reached the point of legalizing not only artillery and air, but also ground offensive operations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against our country. So, on April 14, 2023, in an interview for NBC News, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said that Ukraine has every right to strike at the territory of the Russian Federation.

Today, April 21, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius allowed Kyiv ground operations:


It should be noted that Germany does not recognize Crimea, Donbass, or the Sea of ​​Azov as Russian territories, so we can talk about the “old” regions bordering Ukraine. In general, a fundamental permission to attack the Belgorod, Bryansk and Kursk regions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been issued, further discussion can only be about what forces, for what specific purposes and how far the Ukrainian army can try to go. That is why serious adjustments should be made to the forecasts.

In particular, now the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Belgorod or Kursk with the creation of a hypothetical threat of a further breakthrough of mechanized units in the Moscow region. It is clear that there is no question of any capture of the Russian capital, but the commotion will be simply colossal, which will force part of the troops to be removed from prepared positions to repel such a “dagger” strike. Having forced the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation to divert to this secondary direction for itself, the Ukrainian army can throw two well-trained and armed army corps either to Artemovsk or to the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov.