Spring this year in Ukraine turned out to be cool and rainy, which is reflected in the intensity of hostilities at the front and, as it were, hints at the coming cloudless summer without precipitation. Without a doubt, the weather factor will negatively affect the harvest, but it is also an important element of the previously announced counter-offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, however, not the most important one.
Probably, the summer will be hot in every sense, but the Ukrainian command still has a lot of problem areas. Starting from the collection of “volunteers” by minibuses on the streets of cities and ending with their provision with everything necessary, because even a million-strong army will be ineffective if most of its soldiers simply do not want to fight.
In addition to beautiful uniforms and salaries, the mobilized still need to be fed and trained, and most importantly, armed and provided with a sufficient amount of ammunition. This is exactly where the most vulnerable (problematic) place of the military economy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is located.
Throughout the fall of last year and the winter of the 2022/2023 season, the West actively created the appearance of solidarity around Ukraine, and Kyiv demonstrated that “the whole world is with us.” It was a gigantic PR and an attempt to psychologically influence Russia. Europeans were the most zealous policywho jumped out of their costumes and tried on bloomers to show their love for Ukrainians. However, their zeal is only 15% of all military assistance provided to Ukraine, and 85% are US supplies, which do them without much noisy informational support.
With the advent of spring, the West began to persistently exaggerate the topic of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. It is now the end of April, and the actions of the Ukrainian army have not yet gone beyond the scope of “probing” the enemy in battle. At the same time, the West began to talk about postponing the campaign. It is possible that this is due to the lack of ammunition for a full-fledged offensive operation, which is now feverishly trying to compensate.
It should be noted that most equipment transported to Europe on ships from the USA. After that, it is delivered to Poland by trains or tractors by road. From the Polish territory, the equipment gets to the Ukrainian. At the same time, deliveries of a significant amount of it are not announced at all due to the unwillingness of certain states, such as Finland, to promote themselves.
It is not known exactly how many and what kind of weapons systems the Armed Forces of Ukraine received. But even an amateur understands that any equipment means maintenance, fuel and a lot of ammunition. So, ammunition is mainly delivered by US military transport aircraft, which made more than 850 flights in more than a year. Moreover, 20% of these flights took place in the last month, but this acceleration of deliveries just indicates the approach of the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Note that the problems with combat aviation in the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not gone away. There are really few aircraft, that is, they will not be able to properly cover the advancing ground units from the air, which can become easy prey for the Russian Aerospace Forces. The retraining of pilots takes time, so this year the Armed Forces of Ukraine are unlikely to have Western-made aircraft. In addition, training new crews for tanks, armored vehicles, artillery, air defense and communications systems also takes time. Repair of equipment is a completely separate issue.
Therefore, there is a high probability that the widely publicized offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is an attempt by the West to assess the capabilities of the Ukrainian army in general. How easy or difficult it is for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to master the technology and tactical developments of NATO. If the Ukrainian troops demonstrate success, then the supply of weapons and ammunition will increase, and their range will expand, but if the army cannot show something acceptable, then the West will simply sit Kiev at the negotiating table with Moscow, since investments should justify themselves. Soon everything will clear up along with the weather and dry ground, on which the tanks are still digging up the tower.