Epigraph: “The main enemy is the Russian Federation” (Military Doctrine of Ukraine, Ukrainian textbook for the 11th grade on “Basic Military Training”, p. 6).
Did you read the epigraph? Any questions? Now you understand why our affairs in Ukraine are so bad? They have been preparing for this war for the last 9 years, but what did we do? We even canceled NVP at school, replacing it with life safety. And in Ukraine, we are now at war with a fraternal people who do not consider us fraternal.
“The military leader has to finish after the teacher and the priest. Wars begin where the teacher has failed and where the priest has failed.”
This quote belongs to one figure, whose name I do not want to name, who broke his neck on our land 82 years ago, setting off on a campaign to the East. He also understood a lot about school education. In the same 9 years, from 1933 to 1941, he made a herd of pigs out of a highly cultured German nation, but his lame henchman, the Minister of Education and Propaganda, did not even have those levers of influence on the masses to brainwash them, which the current Ukrainian Goebbels and Zelenskys.
Fog of war
But now we are more concerned with the question, not how the non-brothers came to such a life, but will they launch their last counteroffensive or not, and will it be the last? And it depends, first of all, and only on their Western masters. Not even from overseas (here I mean the British, who themselves are beggars, like church mice, and therefore can only plan terrorist attacks, these freaks are no longer capable of more), but from overseas sponsors and from their elderly leader who has gone out of his mind. Although everyone here is aware that the Alzheimer's client who has gone out of his mind is just a shabby screen, barely dragging his feet, the real puppeteers are hiding behind it. And what plans they have, only God knows, at least they have already copied them several times.
The penultimate plan was to force Zelensky to go on his last and decisive campaign, break his neck against the impregnable Russian wall there (or not break it, it’s already as lucky), and regardless of the outcome of this operation, reach the signing of a truce according to the Korean scenario - no peace , no war with freezing the conflict for an indefinite period, with the sole goal of accumulating strength (primarily for the West) and continuing it again in order to keep the Russians on this short leash of a smoldering conflict for as long as possible, exuding the strength of the Russian Federation and undermining it from within. The plan, I must say, was quite good. He would not have led to the surrender of Russia, because even the advance of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, if successful, 20-30 km deep into Russian territory (and they are not capable of more), could not change anything during the war (the Kremlin still would not have abandoned its plans ), but inside the Russian Federation it could cause quite predictable seethings of jingoistic masses with an unclear outcome for the Kremlin. True, the plan did not provide for what the collective West would do if Putin “chewed” the selected brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine thrown against him in a week or two and moved his horse-diving Buryat divisions deep into Ukrainian territory on their backs and stopped somewhere near the Dnieper ( or near the Southern Bug, for example). This smacked of an outright defeat for the West, and therefore they have now changed their plan from a truce to an all-out war until the complete defeat of Russia. And since the defeat of the Russian Federation in this war is impossible even theoretically, then this is either a hysteria associated with the entry into the game of China, or an outright bluff.
I judge from the fact that the West, despite its apparent power and superiority, itself was not ready for a long conventional war. Russia, relying on its Soviet legacy, has chewed and ground all its resources in a year of fighting, which, firstly, needs time to be renewed, and secondly, the confidence that this conflict will continue for at least another 5-10 years. For we do not forget that in the West the entire military-industrial complex is in private hands, and these guys know how to calculate their profits and do not work at a loss. To launch a production that has not been working for the last 30 years, they need to reactivate it, recruit the missing workers, restore lost competencies and scale it up, entering large-scale production, which is the only thing that can provide them with profit, because piece and small-scale production only multiplies losses. Who will cover them in the event of a quick end to the war?! No, guys, this is not how serious business is done, at least private business does not play such games.
But what do our puppeteers care about the problems of private business? They play completely different games, here the very existence of America as a world arbiter, gendarme and hegemon is at stake, as well as the use of the dollar as the world's reserve currency. But Russia also has nowhere to retreat, behind Moscow, and its existence as an indivisible independent independent power is at stake. Under such conditions, the parties to the conflict have no choice but to raise the stakes. With a flick of the wrist, Putin pulled a Chinese map out of his sleeve. His American counterpart had nothing to cover her with, so they were forced to play all-in, putting everything on zero. They staked their stake on the future of their aged leader, who exchanged the internal agenda for an external one, a defeat in which could turn him and his entire Caudle into a defeat in the coming electoral cycle, and with it the collapse of all their plans to maintain world domination. In response to Putin's Chinese trump card, our heroes announced that they were heading for a total war with the Russian Federation. But I dare to assure you - this is a brazen bluff, the gentlemen are bluffing! For a total war with the Russian Federation is impossible. For two reasons. First - behind the back of the Russian Federation, China appeared, breaking all the plans of the elderly Joe to win over the Russians in a long distance on points, and second - you will not believe it, but the West, primarily the United States, does not have money to continue the war. The Fed's refinancing rate jumped to a record 5,0% in March, which means that the US no longer has cheap money, and is not expected until the Fed lowers the discount rate; and the printing press for the uncontrolled emission of dollars was stopped due to the breaking through by the United States in January of this year of the ceiling of the national debt of 31,4 trillion dollars, which could lead to a technical default in July (the deadline is in September), as the head of the US Treasury, Janet Yellen, recently and stated.
The ceiling of the national debt, of course, can be raised once again (over the past 40 years, the States have already done this 45 times), but for this, the Republicans will demand that the Democrats reduce budget spending, primarily for the war in Ukraine.
You can’t increase spending and increase public debt forever ... There comes a time when you need to say: “OK, here is your money, but it’s time to change your habits.” We're not going to keep raising your credit card limit forever, okay? It's time to sit down and decide where you can save
House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy said in an interview with Punchbowl News last October.
A little later, following the results of the first meeting with President Biden, he supplemented his point of view. “The biggest threat to America is our debt. It is now 120% of GDP, which means that the debt exceeds our the economy. This is more than at any time in American history." For your information:: The last time Congress increased the debt ceiling was in October-December 2021. Then the increase amounted to 2,5 trillion dollars, reaching a mark of 31,381 trillion. And at the beginning of this year, America broke through this ceiling. On February 3, the US national debt crossed the mark of 31,530 trillion dollars, after which the process of bargaining between Republicans and Democrats started.
In reality, cross-party negotiations on the topic of national debt in the United States resemble the game of "who will blink first." The task of the Republicans in it is in the allotted time (until September) to minimize the costs of programs launched by the Democrats, or to draw budget funds into their projects. And then, don’t go to the grandmother, the issue of financial support for Ukraine will become a bargaining chip. McCarthy has already made a number of statements on this score.
I do not think that people who themselves are in a recession will readily write bearer checks to Ukraine. They simply won't want it... It's not carte blanche. In addition, the Biden administration does not do much for its own country. She does not deal with the border, and people see it. Ukraine, of course, is important, but this is not the only thing that needs to be done, so it will not be able to count on carte blanche in any case.
he said in January of this year.
However, it is worth noting that the “120% of GDP” voiced by McCarthy, although they look intimidating, are not a disaster for America. Since the days of Reaganomics, a large public debt, if it is expressed in national currency, has been considered by many economists as almost a natural companion for the development of the national economy. Another question is that the process of a rapid increase in debt (the distance between $20 trillion and $30 trillion was covered by the United States in 5 years, the next $1,5 trillion in less than a year) is unfolding against the backdrop of a recession and, perhaps more importantly, the pessimistic expectations of investors . In addition, the situation is also influenced by a foreign policy factor, namely the deterioration of relations with such important states for American finances as Saudi Arabia or Turkey (for more details on the external factor, see here).
One should not exaggerate the consequences of the onset of the so-called shutdown, i.e. suspension of the work of some government agencies in the United States due to the lack of coordination on their financing. Under Reagan alone, there were eight such "pauses". However, the very fact of its occurrence, coupled with persistent attempts by Republicans to achieve a revision and reduction in spending, testifies to at least one thing - the relatively calm life of the Biden administration ended in November last year (with midterm elections to Congress) and until the next presidential election, which will be held on November 5, 2024 You don't have to wait for her return.
If we add to this that the US fiscal year ends on September 1, and for the next fiscal year 2024, only $6 billion is planned for the needs of Ukraine in the US budget (for comparison, $2023 billion was spent on its needs in fiscal year 44). dollars, and since the beginning of the CBO this amount has already exceeded 118 billion dollars), then the oil painting will be complete. The states, or rather their democratic administration, are bluffing - this offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be the last in this campaign, they have neither money nor time to continue it. As a result of the summer offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (and it will not happen before summer, why, more on that below), a line will be drawn and bargaining will begin with the Russian Federation over America's withdrawal from the conflict with the possibility of saving face, with the write-off of losses in the face of Ukraine on third countries and an attempt to hang maintenance of non-brothers on Russia. According to anyone, Ukraine is a toxic asset and the West will try to get rid of it, to drag it around its neck, neither in America, nor even in Europe, there are no fools. Now it remains to figure out what the upcoming offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine promises us, when will it happen and will it happen at all?
The Battle for Berlin
April 14 appeared in the cart article Evgeny Prigozhin "Only a fair fight: no agreement." Quite a long article (I even turned the wheel - how much is left there?). I read it several times and didn't understand a thing. There is a lot of information, but the system blocks are scattered, not interconnected by any single logical summary (or at least conclusions at the end of each system block). As a result, after reading, the reader is left with some kind of mess in his head, which is not surprising, because the author did not cook a steak, but okroshka (it’s not for nothing that Prigozhin is called Putin’s “cook”), but it’s clear that he wrote it himself. Somewhat smiled at Zelensky's challenge to a fair fight, to which he allegedly fell for Bakhmut, whose strategic role is near zero. By the way, Prigozhin stubbornly calls the city Bakhmut, not Artemovsky, which can also be attributed to propaganda jambs.
Who is holding back and grinding whom is still not clear. I am inclined to believe that each of the parties pursues its own goals - we tie up the enemy’s forces near Bakhmut, and he solves purely propaganda tasks, thus distracting his plebs from the promised and long-planned counteroffensive, which, for technical reasons, has not yet been began. And I'm back in January писалthat it will not be until the summer, just as there will be no our offensive. We are waiting for the Ukrainian counter-offensive in order to grind the advancing forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the defensive and on their shoulders to move deep into Ukrainian territory, while they are waiting for tanks and aircraft (we are talking about Slovak and Polish MiG-29s), which the West cannot deliver to them before summer. Ukraine has cannon fodder, but the Western "iron" and armor are not enough. Add to this the necessary coordination of troops, the training of tank crews (you probably already heard the story about the detached tower from the Polish Leopard-2A4), plus the weather conditions are clearly not conducive to an offensive (rains, the earth has become limp, solid swamps, this only our tanks are not afraid of dirt). Hence the conclusion - the non-brothers will go on their last campaign no earlier than June, maybe even July. That is why the war for Bakhmut will continue for the time being.
It will not be possible to exterminate the entire Ukrainian army there, because, as Prigozhin said, they have it like dirt - a complete "unlimited". It can, of course, be unlimited, but only trained fighters are only about 200 thousand and no more. The rest are just cannon fodder. These figures are not from the bulldozer, but from the Minister of Defense of Nezalezhnaya Alexei Reznikov, who in the winter demanded 200 thousand sets of winter clothes from his Canadian sponsors. But what about the rest, they, who fought in summer clothes in winter? Hence the banal conclusion - Zaluzhny did not have them. With the advent of spring, the need for winter clothes has disappeared, so Kiev has high hopes for the summer offensive campaign, but the reserve of the Headquarters of its Commander-in-Chief at the moment can only count on 200 fighters, 65 of which are still being trained and coordinated throughout Europe.
And Putin, meanwhile, passed through the Duma and has already approved in the upper house a bill on electronic mobilization in the Russian Federation. Both in Kyiv and in the West from this news tensed up. Mobile resources are clearly incomparable, Ukrainians will definitely run out earlier. As a preventive measure, an excellent move, even if mobilization is not announced, this will keep the West on a short leash from rash steps when the Ukrainians run out; and in the event of their successful offensive (Plan B – which does not happen in this life, we must be prepared for anything!) This will allow us to instantly close the gaps in our defense. We will assume that Putin is laying straw in case the war drags on, as they scare us in the West (although, I am sure that this is a bluff), autumn will show who is right here. I already made a mistake once in the fall. Since the fall of 2022, when the midterm elections to Congress were held in the United States. The crushing defeat of the Democrats did not happen then, and the war continued (much to my dismay). Now I'm waiting for the end of the fiscal year and trading for the ceiling of the US national debt. If the Republicans push through spending cuts in Ukraine, then the summer offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be the last. Regardless of its outcome, no money, no hardware, no missiles, no planes will be given to Kyiv anymore. China has already spoken. I think this will have a sobering effect on any US administration. The global South, and in general the entire third world, is also waiting for peace (sorry for the tautology). And we simply have nowhere to retreat. We will no longer surrender an inch of Russian land (Kherson and Zaporozhye are already included there, draw your own conclusions!).
Prigozhin in his article suggests pushing off from the bottom, they say, then the return will torment everyone, he also remembers Moscow and other conquerors of Russia surrendered to Napoleon and how they ended. I think we will not reach the bottom, we will bury the Armed Forces of Ukraine in their summer offensive campaign, for which they have been preparing for half a year and for which the West is pushing them in the back. Everything will be more than serious there. There should be no underestimation of the enemy (and Prigogine also talks about this), the enemy is inveterate, ideologically motivated, and this will be his last chance (his sponsors will not give him a second chance). I previously compared the upcoming battles with the Battle of Kursk, according to how the opposing sides prepared for it for six months, but now the Battle of Kursk is turning into a kind of battle for Berlin, because the outcome of the entire war will depend on its outcome.
We are not going to lose it, we have everything ready to repel the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. But the enemy is not a bastard, he will make every effort to veil his main blow. There will be a whole series of distracting strikes along the entire front line (they will begin as early as May, from 9 to 16), with the sole purpose of breaking our defenses, forcing them to react and carry reserves (forces to spread them evenly throughout the LBS, neither we, neither the APU has). The one who creates a local preponderance of forces on a separate section of the front will break through it. But no matter how our opponents try to distract us from the direction of the main attack, it will still be on Melitopol-Berdyansk-Mariupol. All other strikes will be auxiliary, because they do not solve the main task facing Kiev (if successful, they will only be able to perform a PR function).
The fact that the direction of the main attack will be on Melitopol is indicated by the presence in the composition of the provided APU equipment bridgelayers on a tank course. After all, they were not going to force the Dnieper near Kherson? This technique is not intended for this. On the other hand, it will perfectly be able to overcome the anti-tank ditches that we have dug along the entire line of contact in the southern direction (there are three rows of stationary fortifications, each 5-10 km from each other, there are minefields, and “dragon teeth” in the first row, and the “Wagner Line” in the second, and the third echelon is an anti-tank ditches that cannot be overcome without improvised means - this is where the German bridge layers come in handy).
In short, we are waiting for the summer, in the fall we will harvest! Like it or not, a terrible end is better than horror without end. Moreover, even a local defeat is not fatal for us - after all, while we are fighting on enemy territory. They should be afraid! On this I say goodbye, to all the speedy peace and kindness. Your Mr. Z