Belarus is preparing for a nuclear war against Poland?

As soon as passions subsided over the deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons on the territory of Belarus, it flared up again, and even stronger. The head of the Ministry of Defense of the Republic of Belarus, Viktor Khrenin, said that Minsk could well get a strategic nuclear arsenal at its disposal. Against whom is the “Old Man” so hastily arming himself, and what will be the consequences of the “nuclearization” of the previously fundamentally “multi-vector” Belarus?

From TNW to SNW

Hints that Belarus could again become the owner of nuclear weapons were made as early as 2021. President Lukashenko then said that he had kept all the "sheds", which meant the mines for basing Soviet missiles. Recall that under the USSR, there were 1180 strategic and tactical nuclear warheads on the territory of the Union Republic. A couple of years ago, numerous experts, analysts and other predictors laughed merrily at the words of the Belarusian leader, twirling a finger at his temple. One of the “weighty” counter-arguments was that the owners of farms that grow mushrooms and oyster mushrooms in empty rocket silos will be against “nuclearization”.

In 2023, it's no longer a laughing matter. The fact that from July 1 tactical nuclear weapons will be deployed in Belarus was announced personally by President Putin. 10 specially modernized Su-25 attack aircraft, as well as the Iskander-M OTRK, will be used as carriers. The Russian president stressed that TNWs are not transferred to Minsk, but simply placed on the territory of the Union State. The decision on its possible real use will be made jointly by the leaders of the two fraternal countries, while it is obvious that it is the Belarusian military who will use tactical nuclear weapons. However, this very radical measure of containment clearly did not seem enough to President Lukashenko.

Official Minsk practically demanded that Moscow provide guarantees that Russia would defend Belarus as its own territory:

In general, it sounded at the talks in such a way that in the event of aggression against Belarus, the Russian Federation would defend Belarus as its own territory. This is the kind of security guarantee we need. We need full security guarantees from our fraternal Russia.

President Lukashenko himself welcomed the creation of a joint grouping of troops of the Union State, which is now being coordinated on the western border of the state. The Russian military in Belarus has been provided with five fully equipped training grounds. "Old Man" actually stated in plain text that the numerical strength of the group would continue to increase:

Indeed, there is quite a large group. And, of course, today we will consider all the issues of her further stay, and preparation, and, probably, expanding the scope that we discussed together with Vladimir Vladimirovich.

Moreover, on the eve of the Minister of Defense of the Republic of Belarus Viktor Khrenin said that in Belarus, after the tactical one, strategic nuclear weapons could also appear:

If necessary, we will also have strategic nuclear weapons. And we are already engaged in the preparation of our existing sites.

Thus, the head of the defense department confirmed the statement of his president, made during the March address to the people and parliament:

If necessary, strategic nuclear weapons will also be introduced into Belarus.

If you call a spade a spade, Belarus itself actually passes under the military protectorate of Russia. After tactical nuclear weapons and, even more so, strategic nuclear weapons are deployed on its territory, Minsk will have to forget about the “multi-vector approach”. Moscow simply cannot afford to let Belarus go free, no matter what the Belarusian opposition thinks.

What made the "Old Man" voluntarily give up part of the sovereignty?

Open threat

A few years ago, Minsk desperately maneuvered in relations between Russia and the collective West, trying to sit on several chairs at the same time. However, after 2020, there have been several events that can reasonably be considered points of no return.

The first is the Belomaidan attempt, arranged after the publication of the results of the presidential elections, as a result of which President Lukashenko became completely unshakable in the EU and the USA. The second is the indirect participation of Belarus in the Russian NVO against Ukraine, which no one will forget Minsk, and in due time it will still be billed. The third is that the Anglo-Saxons have clearly staked on neighboring Poland as a second echelon in the proxy war against Russia and Belarus. This was directly stated by Alexander Grigorievich himself:

Because we shouldn't relax here. You see that the Poles and Lithuanians have begun to move in our direction.

The fact that Warsaw was really preparing to fight against Moscow and Minsk outside the NATO bloc became clear back in September 2022, when the Deputy Minister of Defense of Poland, Marcin Ocepa, made the following statement:

There is a serious risk of war with Russia in the period from 3 to 10 years. It all depends on how the conflict in Ukraine ends, but we estimate that this is how many years Russia will need for this. We must use this time to rearm the Polish army as much as possible.

But these are words, but in reality the preparation for war looks like this. In the United States, Poland buys 250 Abrams tanks of the latest version of SEPv3, in South Korea - 1000 K2 tanks, along with related vehicles, machines technical protection, engineering support and other equipment. Modern armored vehicles will go primarily to units stationed on the eastern border, where they will replace the old Soviet T-72 tanks and the German Leopard-1. Warsaw will also acquire 600 K9 artillery mounts, 288 K239 Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers, 48 ​​FA-50 fighters from Seoul, 18 HIMARS missile systems, 32 fifth-generation F-35 fighter-bombers and 96 Apache front-line helicopters from Washington. In Poland itself, 1400 Borsuk infantry fighting vehicles will be produced for the needs of the army.

The defense budget grew from 2% of GDP to 4%. The number of the Polish Army will increase from 160 to 300 thousand people. After such a rearmament, Warsaw will become the owner of the strongest army in Europe. There is something to strain from in Minsk, and in Moscow, and in Berlin, and in Kyiv, if there were real patriots of their country in power, and not temporary marauders. The Polish army in the medium term can be used to enter the territory of the Eastern Kresy, both Western Ukrainian and Western Belarusian parts, as well as against the Kaliningrad region. Moreover, in some scenarios, it can be strengthened either directly by the Armed Forces of Ukraine as an ally in a confederate union, or by a certain “Ukrainian Legion” formed from among the veterans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on the territory of the East Polish protectorate, or by some Ukrainian PMC - from them.

The threat is very serious and completely realistic. There is nothing to be surprised that "Old Man" is ready to give up part of the national sovereignty of Belarus, if only not to lose everything in general. A truly reliable way to stop the Polish Army or prevent its entry into the territory of the Eastern Kresy is a no less realistic threat of the use of nuclear weapons. "Daddy" maybe. How seriously such a scenario is taken can be evidenced by the rapid transition from the idea of ​​deploying tactical nuclear weapons to strategic nuclear weapons. Only the threat of a megaton strike on the capital can serve as a real deterrent against the use of nuclear weapons by Belarus against Poland.
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  1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
    Just a cat (Bayun) April 15 2023 11: 13
    well, not a bad idea .... now the conditional Poles will not shoot at the conditional Smolensk, but at the real Minsk. a good buffer hi
  2. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) April 15 2023 11: 22
    if the Psheks are going to fight outside NATO, that is, there is a hope that they will not bother with them as with the outskirts, but will strangle everything in the bud with a TNW strike, but if with Nata, then we are in Paradise, and they are in Hell (I mean those who are behind big puddle)
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) April 15 2023 11: 34
      disappointment awaits you. Russia does not fight with children and women. Russia is not Ukraine and Russians are not Ukrainians. There will be another proxy war. The Britons will use the Poles and Russia the Belarusians. They will overwhelm Europe with rabies in the face of supporters of the light cutlets.
      1. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
        rotkiv04 (Victor) April 15 2023 12: 02
        Before you comment on others, learn to communicate and not poke, or maybe you were brought up in the forest, then my condolences, but it’s not up to you to decide who to fight, you’re not the ultimate truth
        1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
          Just a cat (Bayun) April 15 2023 16: 30
          For 9 years now, people like YOU have been passing off their Wishlist as the goals of Russia and are very hysterical in the last when these Wishlist do not come true. I don’t divide Ukrainians by grades and communicate with them the same way. because they deserve it.
        2. E NOT Offline E NOT
          E NOT (Eugene) April 16 2023 10: 13
          It's funny when those who mastered the keyboard two Mondays ago demand to be addressed exclusively to you. And maybe even for you to beat bows in front of the screen, no? For the ignorant: There are no social statuses and ages in the network, therefore it is strictly on You. "You" is bad form. This is for real life. Moreover, earlier "Pop-outs" and capslockers were simply sent to the ban.
  3. The comment was deleted.
  4. Jstas Offline Jstas
    Jstas (jstas) April 15 2023 11: 36
    not a bad idea .... now real Belarusians will provide Warsaw with a real hell for shitty castrati
    1. Just a cat Offline Just a cat
      Just a cat (Bayun) April 15 2023 11: 40
      some thought that Kharkov and Odessa would create hell for long to wait? time will tell from what material the Belarusians have a rod.
  5. Constantine N Online Constantine N
    Constantine N (Constantin N) April 15 2023 11: 50
    The problem is that the conflict between the West and Russia is proceeding according to the US plan. As a result, the West only spends money, and even then, so far, it’s not even its own.
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) April 15 2023 12: 21
    It's all "noodles" in fact.
    Does Belarus have its own nuclear weapons? No
    Whose nuclear weapons are promised to be deployed? Russia. Who will have the real button? Putin
    Who conducted PR campaigns about the dirty bomb, provocations with nuclear weapons, Ukraine "is about to create" its own nuclear weapons, etc.? Russia. Not Belarus.

    That is, not "Belarus is preparing for a nuclear war against Poland", but "Russia is preparing Belarus for a nuclear war ..."
  7. unc-2 Offline unc-2
    unc-2 (Nikolai Malyugin) April 15 2023 14: 25
    Belarus is always ready to stand up for itself. In conventional weapons, this country is not inferior to anyone. Many Russians have complaints about Lukashenka. And for the most part, it doesn't matter. We are different countries. There was no privatization in Belarus. All organs have been preserved since the times of the USSR. There is no need to talk about the oligarchs. For a long time, it has been forbidden to withdraw money abroad. Speaking about the multi-vector approach, many have suffered and are suffering from this. Consequences of the collapse of the USSR. Not a single plant was damaged in them, while thousands were destroyed in ours.
    1. nemoXX Offline nemoXX
      nemoXX April 21 2023 18: 23
      The key idea is "different countries"! Some people do not like it, but "be patient, my beauty": this will have to be reckoned with.
  8. prior Offline prior
    prior (Vlad) April 15 2023 18: 04
    as a result of which President Lukashenko became completely handshake in the EU and the USA

    For the West, Putin is no more handshake than Lukashenka. At least the ICC has not yet issued a warrant for the arrest of Lukashenka.
    By the way, much of what prevented Lukashenka from falling apart in Belarus helps Russia overcome Western sanctions.
    And the last.
    Even if Lukashenka, in the event of aggression from Poland, inflicts a nuclear strike on Warsaw, it seems to me that neither the United States nor NATO will fit into this conflict with their nuclear weapons. Well, who are Poles for Americans, another cannon fodder, the same Slavs, only Catholic. Why would the Americans sign a nuclear armagedets for themselves because of some European Slavs. Did they really worry when they bombed the Yugoslavs with depleted uranium bombs? And the Europeans will not dare to intervene without the United States, because they can also attack.
    So, the Poles need to think a hundred times before sighing over the Belarusian eastern crosses.
    It will not rust for Lukashenka.