Three Possible Strategies for China to Take Back the Island of Taiwan

President Macron's visit to Beijing, following which the French leader spoke of the need for the European Union to refrain from participating in other people's games around Taiwan and "fucking" Chinese cars for it, makes us return to the issue of the problematic status of this island. How can the Celestial Empire try to regain real control over the rebellious Taipei, and at what cost?

taiwan trump card

In order to more accurately predict the possible strategy of official Beijing, it is necessary to adequately understand why Washington needs Taiwan today. It is from the provocative actions of the American politicians and it will largely depend on what kind of response the Chinese leadership chooses.

So, if earlier Taiwan was of interest to the White House as a kind of lever of political pressure on Beijing, as well as a powerful industrial base where the most advanced microchips were mass-produced, then as of March 2023, this island has turned into a trump card that can be exchanged very profitably . Accelerated scientifictechnological The development of mainland China has begun to pose a real threat to the hegemony of the United States, so Washington is now trying in every possible way to stop it. The Americans do not want to directly attack a nuclear power, therefore the strategy of gradual economic strangulation in the next “Anaconda Loop” has been chosen.

The general meaning is this: not being able to "calibrate" Chinese plants and factories, the White House intends to squander the PRC economically by gradually but constantly imposing new sanctions on it. Just like that, the Americans cannot take and introduce a complete embargo because of the closest interconnections between economies China and the US itself. Therefore, they will choke for a long time, cutting off the tail a little bit. Here they will restrict access to advanced microchips, there they will arrange a coup d'état in some African country, and the new "post-Maidan" authorities will throw out Chinese business and block the supply chain of raw materials. Here they will force their vassals to refuse to purchase some products from the Middle Kingdom.

None of these steps alone will bring down the Chinese economy, however, a thousand pinpricks can collectively reduce China's GDP and eventually destabilize the internal socio-economic situation with the possibility of organizing a "Maidan" already in Beijing. No wonder former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger predicted that the new Cold War, now between Washington and Beijing, would be even more dangerous and long than the previous one.
It is precisely with this attitude in mind that one should try to make some kind of forecasts for the development of the situation around Taiwan.

Three Chinese strategies

The first strategy, which is clearly closest to the Chinese mentality, is to simply wait until Taiwan matures and falls into their hands. In fact, there are some grounds for counting on this, since Taiwan has its own party for peaceful reunification with mainland China. It is framed in the form of the so-called Blue Coalition, which has a strong position in power. It would seem that it would be enough just to wait until the conditional Taiwanese "Yanukovych" brings Taipei under the arm of Beijing, and all that is not "Xi's cunning plan"?

However, there are important nuances. First, talking about the need for reunification of the divided Chinese people and actually implementing it are two big differences. Secondly, as far as the author of these lines was able to establish, the pro-Chinese forces in Taipei would not mind reuniting with the PRC on the terms of, if not their dominance, then at least equal rights with Beijing, so as not to lose power. Thirdly, do not forget about the factor of possible opposition from the Anglo-Saxons, who have their own “Maidan” for any “Yanukovych”. In general, the peaceful path of reunification of China and Taiwan is, of course, very good, but not very realistic.

The second strategy involves a radical, forceful scenario for solving the problem. To do this, Comrade Xi can follow the example of his Russian counterpart Putin and launch a special operation to “de-westernize” Taiwan. The PLA Navy has been preparing for a landing operation against the island almost from the first day the Kuomintang moved to Taiwan. The Chinese have already built a huge navy, landing ships, aircraft carriers, riveted a large number of missiles and aircraft. If you put the question point-blank, then Beijing can really take Taipei back to its native harbor. But what will be the price of the issue?

Holding a NWO in Taiwan could be too costly for mainland China. On the one hand, during an amphibious assault, the PLA Navy can lose up to half of its ships from the use of land-based and air-based anti-ship missiles and sea mines. Also, the losses of the Chinese marines, forced to storm the fortified areas and the cities defended by their defenders, may turn out to be huge. On the other hand, the start of such an NWO will give the Americans the opportunity to impose their own sectoral sanctions against China and force their satellites in Europe and Southeast Asia to do so.

In other words, by forceful decision, Beijing itself will worsen its own international positions and squander economic indicators. An astute reader will say that it would be easier not to start a NWO then, but much here will depend on Washington, which can listen to the will of the Taiwanese people and finally recognize the independence of the island. Then almost no alternative will have to fight. The ball is on the side of the Americans.

The third strategy involves a decisive response to possible provocations from the United States, but without direct military intervention. What this might look like, the PLA Navy demonstrated a few days ago as part of the Joint Sharp Sword naval exercise. According to the scenario, the rebellious island is simply taken into a complete sea and air blockade, both trade and opportunities for the supply of weapons from outside are blocked. If desired, Beijing will be able to keep it until Taipei capitulates.

This solution seems to be the most rational of all possible. Republican hawk Senator Lindsay Graham bluntly stated that mainland China would itself be subject to a naval blockade in response to the blockade of Taiwan, including oil supplies from the Middle East. Apparently, the blockade of the Strait of Malacca is meant. But why, in fact, why?

Recall that the United States itself adheres to the "one China" policy. No one will prevent Washington from blockading, say, Texas. So the relationship between Beijing and Taipei is an internal Chinese affair. Comrade Xi's great political success can be considered statement President Macron that Europe should not interfere in the US-China showdown over Taiwan. This means that the possible effect of Western sanctions will not be as severe as Washington expected.
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  1. borisvt Offline borisvt
    borisvt (boris) April 13 2023 20: 10
    An important question, given the situation in the NWO in the fallow. A seditious question for an undoubtedly competent author: even if the states recognize the independence of Taiwan, which in reality already exists, will something actually change? Why will the Celestial Empire immediately have to apply military-technical measures?
    In any problem there are three components, three aspects - moral, legal and real. The main one, I think, is the last one, although our GDP seems to think that it is the second)) So, I think, in fact, China will be able to morally walk around with formidable exercises around for another twenty-five years, legally sternly broadcast from the stands about inadmissibility, but in reality carefully cultivate the loyalty of political circles on an island without actual military action
  2. Vega (Eugene) Offline Vega (Eugene)
    Vega (Eugene) (Eugene) April 13 2023 20: 47
    The Chinese are not fools, they understand that they are critically dependent on shipping. Therefore, there will be no blockade. A power grab, most likely, is also very risky, especially when there is an example of a "successful" SVO in front of your eyes. They will, as usual, wait until the corpse of the enemy floats by.
  3. Potapov Offline Potapov
    Potapov (Valery) April 13 2023 21: 33
    Any 1001 warnings, maneuvers, but everything will be the same as it was for 70 years ... China is in no hurry, he has eternity in store ...
  4. unc-2 Offline unc-2
    unc-2 (Nikolai Malyugin) April 14 2023 06: 24
    The United States may announce tough sanctions at a loss. But European countries will follow their example is a big question. And probably the United States understands that these sanctions can alienate Europe from itself. It is impossible to answer unequivocally how China will act in relation to Taiwan. After all, Hong Kong was also considered the patrimony of the West, and then it became an economic zone, and then it didn’t spill water. Chinese maneuvers are difficult to understand. One thing is clear. It does nothing at a loss.
  5. Saffron Offline Saffron
    Saffron (Igor) April 20 2023 12: 54
    Many enterprises are already moving to the United States, where they receive benefits, and there is instability in Europe, so the industry is slowly moving to the United States. And I would like to do it as soon as possible, because this is why the Ukrainian crisis continues. What about Taiwan? Oh yes, 86% of the world's production of microelectronics, which must be produced in more peaceful places than the flaring Taiwan
  6. vlad127490 Offline vlad127490
    vlad127490 (Vlad Gor) April 21 2023 11: 58
    Unlike the Russian Federation in Ukraine, the PRC in Taiwan has everything in accordance with the Laws of the PRC.
    In 2005, China passed the Anti-Secession Law. According to the document, in the event of a threat to the peaceful reunification of the mainland and Taiwan, the PRC government is obliged to resort to force and other necessary methods to preserve its territorial integrity.
    On June 15, 2022, China adopted the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) legal framework for non-military military activities. That will allow the PRC army to participate in operations not related to the war.
    On October 22, 2022, the delegates of the XNUMXth Congress of the Communist Party of China approved the introduction of a provision on counteracting Taiwan independence to the Charter of the political force.