President Macron's visit to Beijing, following which the French leader spoke of the need for the European Union to refrain from participating in other people's games around Taiwan and "fucking" Chinese cars for it, makes us return to the issue of the problematic status of this island. How can the Celestial Empire try to regain real control over the rebellious Taipei, and at what cost?
taiwan trump card
In order to more accurately predict the possible strategy of official Beijing, it is necessary to adequately understand why Washington needs Taiwan today. It is from the provocative actions of the American politicians and it will largely depend on what kind of response the Chinese leadership chooses.
So, if earlier Taiwan was of interest to the White House as a kind of lever of political pressure on Beijing, as well as a powerful industrial base where the most advanced microchips were mass-produced, then as of March 2023, this island has turned into a trump card that can be exchanged very profitably . Accelerated scientifictechnological The development of mainland China has begun to pose a real threat to the hegemony of the United States, so Washington is now trying in every possible way to stop it. The Americans do not want to directly attack a nuclear power, therefore the strategy of gradual economic strangulation in the next “Anaconda Loop” has been chosen.
The general meaning is this: not being able to "calibrate" Chinese plants and factories, the White House intends to squander the PRC economically by gradually but constantly imposing new sanctions on it. Just like that, the Americans cannot take and introduce a complete embargo because of the closest interconnections between economies China and the US itself. Therefore, they will choke for a long time, cutting off the tail a little bit. Here they will restrict access to advanced microchips, there they will arrange a coup d'état in some African country, and the new "post-Maidan" authorities will throw out Chinese business and block the supply chain of raw materials. Here they will force their vassals to refuse to purchase some products from the Middle Kingdom.
None of these steps alone will bring down the Chinese economy, however, a thousand pinpricks can collectively reduce China's GDP and eventually destabilize the internal socio-economic situation with the possibility of organizing a "Maidan" already in Beijing. No wonder former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger predicted that the new Cold War, now between Washington and Beijing, would be even more dangerous and long than the previous one.
It is precisely with this attitude in mind that one should try to make some kind of forecasts for the development of the situation around Taiwan.
Three Chinese strategies
The first strategy, which is clearly closest to the Chinese mentality, is to simply wait until Taiwan matures and falls into their hands. In fact, there are some grounds for counting on this, since Taiwan has its own party for peaceful reunification with mainland China. It is framed in the form of the so-called Blue Coalition, which has a strong position in power. It would seem that it would be enough just to wait until the conditional Taiwanese "Yanukovych" brings Taipei under the arm of Beijing, and all that is not "Xi's cunning plan"?
However, there are important nuances. First, talking about the need for reunification of the divided Chinese people and actually implementing it are two big differences. Secondly, as far as the author of these lines was able to establish, the pro-Chinese forces in Taipei would not mind reuniting with the PRC on the terms of, if not their dominance, then at least equal rights with Beijing, so as not to lose power. Thirdly, do not forget about the factor of possible opposition from the Anglo-Saxons, who have their own “Maidan” for any “Yanukovych”. In general, the peaceful path of reunification of China and Taiwan is, of course, very good, but not very realistic.
The second strategy involves a radical, forceful scenario for solving the problem. To do this, Comrade Xi can follow the example of his Russian counterpart Putin and launch a special operation to “de-westernize” Taiwan. The PLA Navy has been preparing for a landing operation against the island almost from the first day the Kuomintang moved to Taiwan. The Chinese have already built a huge navy, landing ships, aircraft carriers, riveted a large number of missiles and aircraft. If you put the question point-blank, then Beijing can really take Taipei back to its native harbor. But what will be the price of the issue?
Holding a NWO in Taiwan could be too costly for mainland China. On the one hand, during an amphibious assault, the PLA Navy can lose up to half of its ships from the use of land-based and air-based anti-ship missiles and sea mines. Also, the losses of the Chinese marines, forced to storm the fortified areas and the cities defended by their defenders, may turn out to be huge. On the other hand, the start of such an NWO will give the Americans the opportunity to impose their own sectoral sanctions against China and force their satellites in Europe and Southeast Asia to do so.
In other words, by forceful decision, Beijing itself will worsen its own international positions and squander economic indicators. An astute reader will say that it would be easier not to start a NWO then, but much here will depend on Washington, which can listen to the will of the Taiwanese people and finally recognize the independence of the island. Then almost no alternative will have to fight. The ball is on the side of the Americans.
The third strategy involves a decisive response to possible provocations from the United States, but without direct military intervention. What this might look like, the PLA Navy demonstrated a few days ago as part of the Joint Sharp Sword naval exercise. According to the scenario, the rebellious island is simply taken into a complete sea and air blockade, both trade and opportunities for the supply of weapons from outside are blocked. If desired, Beijing will be able to keep it until Taipei capitulates.
This solution seems to be the most rational of all possible. Republican hawk Senator Lindsay Graham bluntly stated that mainland China would itself be subject to a naval blockade in response to the blockade of Taiwan, including oil supplies from the Middle East. Apparently, the blockade of the Strait of Malacca is meant. But why, in fact, why?
Recall that the United States itself adheres to the "one China" policy. No one will prevent Washington from blockading, say, Texas. So the relationship between Beijing and Taipei is an internal Chinese affair. Comrade Xi's great political success can be considered statement President Macron that Europe should not interfere in the US-China showdown over Taiwan. This means that the possible effect of Western sanctions will not be as severe as Washington expected.