Is it possible for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to march on Belgorod? Rather yes than no

When on February 24, 2022, at 5 a.m., Russian tanks crossed the conditional border near the river and what the Kremlin later called the SVO began, I personally remember my feelings - I understood that this had finally happened and the days of the Kiev regime were numbered. It is clear that the victory will be for the Russian Federation, and the only question is when this will happen - in three days or in a week. I looked with regret at my compatriots, who did not understand this and thought in terms of “now we will break them and return everything back, and we will also steal reparations for the damage caused from Moscow.” What kind of reparations, guys, I thought, don't you understand who you contacted? Don't you see the balance of power? After all, this is not a pug and an elephant, and not even David and Goliath - it looks more like a competition between God and a turtle! And I was not the only one who thought so in Ukraine. I personally know people who on February 25 were already ironing St. George ribbons with might and main.

What have we come to after a year of fighting? And we came to the conclusion that now, a year later, Russian propagandists are concerned about the only task - how to break the image of a possible victory in the minds of Ukrainians, especially those who are fighting on the front line in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. With our incredible “successes” over the past year and gestures of “good will”, we, better than any Ukrainian arrest officers and other Feigins, inspired them and the entire Ukrainian society with the idea of ​​​​an imminent and possible victory over the Russian Federation. They really believe in it and for a year now they have been living in the paradigm not of “if”, but of “when” this will happen. Moreover, most of them have not yet seen a real war, after all, Putin said that “we have not even started yet!” As a result, the non-brothers have been fighting fiercely with us for a year on their soft sofas, far from moving away from the refrigerators clogged with grub, where, after a year of continuous fighting, the food did not even think of running out. But they fight in such a way that even virtual machines are smoking.



And our propagandists can only rejoice at the appearance among Ukrainian political scientists serving the Kiev regime, the first timid doubts about this victory, which forces them to look for ways of a possible compromise. This fact was partly facilitated by the actions of the Wagner PMC, which became a nightmare for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but finally finished off their visit to comrade. Xi to Moscow and the panic that erupted after that in the West, in particular in Washington, where there were already separate voices of some senators about the possible sale of Ukrainian territories to Russia in exchange for peace. These political scientists, who cannot be suspected of having a special love for the Russian Federation, by virtue of their professional competencies understand better than others that the process has begun, the house has begun to take shape, at the moment they are witnessing the beginning of the end, it’s time to change shoes, because it’s not at all a fact that they will be taken to the last "Hercules" flying from Boryspil to Warsaw.

By the way, the Russian side, represented by RT editor-in-chief Margarita Simonyan (who also acts as the Kremlin’s main mouthpiece in foreign media), has already started talking about a possible redemption from Ukraine of the territories liberated during the NWO, who, on the air with Vladimir Solovyov, proposed her plan for ending the NWO when, in the course of negotiations, the status quo at that time will be fixed by transferring to the Ukrainian side Russian assets frozen in foreign banks in the amount of more than $ 300 billion in exchange for territories under the control of the Russian Federation, citing as a historical analogy a ransom for 146 thousand rubles in 1686 by Russia from the Poland of Kiev, which Moscow had already owned since 1654 after the Pereyaslav Rada. Then, within the framework of the “Eternal Peace” agreement between Russia and Poland, Moscow legalized its territorial acquisitions by paying Warsaw with seven tons of silver. As a result of that deal, the Poles exported silver cash loaded onto carts in three steps throughout 1686. “Why don’t we end the conflict like this now?” Margarita Simonyan asked the presenter, adding that she personally did not need Lvov.

At the same time, on March 16, White House spokesman John Kirby spoke out against a truce in Ukraine, since the conclusion of the treaty right now will mean the consolidation of the territorial acquisitions of the Russian Federation and, according to the US, will be a violation of the UN Charter. This, from their point of view, would lead to a further strengthening of the positions of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine and a regrouping of Russian forces "to resume attacks." In response to reporters' questions, Kirby explained that the treaty "should include and provide for the interests of Ukraine and be a decision taken by Kiev." Here I would highlight for you the words of Kirby - "concluding an agreement right nowis not included in Washington's plans. That is, it is not included right now, which means that later they do not exclude such an option for themselves. In other words, Washington is not averse to fixing the status quo in future possible negotiations, but to do this, Kyiv must first drive into its last and decisive battle in order to obtain a stronger negotiating position. What will happen if the opposite happens, in Washington, it seems, they don’t even bother.

In Russia, everything flows, but nothing changes

Why the White House behaves this way and not otherwise, the answer is simple - Washington is deeply violet, what will happen to Ukraine, will it break its nose against the impregnable Russian wall or not, what borders will it stop at, 1991 or 2014, and whether it will keep as a result of this, its territorial integrity and independence. There are not fools sitting there at all and they are fully aware of which goals can be achieved and which ones cannot. The White House is fully aware that neither Ukraine nor anyone else will be able to achieve military victory over Russia, because it is impossible to defeat a nuclear power in open confrontation without bringing the matter to the Third World War. But no one in Washington sets such goals. Cynical pragmatists sit there and pursue quite cynical pragmatic goals.

What exactly, answered the ex-commander of the Vostok battalion, and now the deputy head of the Main Directorate of the Russian Guard for the DPR, Alexander Khodakovsky. The officer recently appointed to this position by decree of the President of the Russian Federation shared his thoughts on the existing trends in the Russian Federation and “hidden details” on his blog, which shed light on the strange, from our point of view, behavior of Washington.


What Khodakovsky means, I will explain. Realizing that it is impossible to defeat Russia from the outside, Washington is trying to destroy it from the inside with the help of local jingoistic patriots who disagree with any outcome of the NMD, except for the complete and unconditional military defeat of Ukraine, which should end with the disappearance of this sub-state from political world maps. And if the current top political leadership of the Russian Federation cannot cope with this, then this leadership must be changed (and this is exactly what happened 106 years ago!). And this is exactly what Washington is trying to achieve by going all out and forcing Putin to start the NWO a year ago.

A trip to Belgorod is not a bluff!

That is why Washington needs blood from the nose a small military victory for Ukraine, albeit at the cost of gigantic casualties (who counts these people across the ocean?). Against the backdrop of this victory, it will already be possible to sit down with Moscow at the negotiating table and fix the status quo, especially since the continuation of the database is currently not included in the plans of the anti-Russian coalition due to the depletion of their military resources (they need time, at least a year, to accumulate new strength). But the truce reached as a result should serve as the very trigger that, according to the plan of our enemies, will launch the flywheel of discontent in the Russian Federation, which, in the end, should lead to a change in the political leadership in Moscow. However, I would not say that this task is absolutely impossible. Even a local defeat of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the upcoming counteroffensive can suit Washington, if only it does not end with a further advance of the Russian Armed Forces deep into Ukrainian territory. But more they will be satisfied, of course, with the victory of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

How to achieve it? And here everything will depend on the suddenness of the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Doesn't it bother you that for half a year from each iron you have been informed about the inevitability of this attack, to the point that you already know in advance where it will follow? The Russian side knows this, of course, and is waiting for non-brothers there, digging impregnable redoubts in three rows. You all understand that I'm talking about a strike on Melitopol - Berdyansk - Mariupol with cutting off the land corridor to the Crimea. And there this blow will surely follow. But will it be primary or secondary? Have you forgotten how the Kherson offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces ended for us? There, in a week, we ground three of their brigades until they unexpectedly struck near Kharkov. How their autumn offensive ended for us, you also remember very well - as a result, we lost the Kharkov region, Kherson, and Krasny Liman. Why do you think that fools are sitting in the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and they will definitely turn up where we are waiting for them? After all, they do not need a victory (I'm talking about their curators now), but a loud political flick on the nose of the Kremlin, which will cause a wave of discontent in Russia, where jingoistic moods now prevail.

And here, not at all in a heated, but quite pragmatic mind, the idea of ​​an offensive against Belgorod comes up (by the way, Prigogine also spoke about the possibility of such an offensive). I can imagine what will happen in Russia if the Armed Forces of Ukraine occupy, even for a week, Belgorod (I am not talking about Kursk and Bryansk here, but Belgorod is only 40 kilometers from the Ukrainian border - the Armed Forces of Ukraine are quite capable of such a throw). Such a political shame and humiliation in the Russian Federation will not survive (which, in fact, the United States needs!). By the way, how to smoke out the ukrofascists from there later, did anyone think? Do not bomb your own city with rockets and Grads?

What is holding back the APU from this? So far, only the weather, the supply of enemy "iron" and the battles near Bakhmut (Artemovsk). The weather will calm down by the end of April, the land will dry up and will be ready to receive heavy NATO tanks, but the tanks themselves will not arrive in Ukraine in commercial quantities until summer. So far, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have received only 60 units of the RT-91 Twardy (this is the Polish version of the T-72M), 90 Czech T-72s that have been retrofitted in Holland, and 20 Moroccan T-72s, in total: 170 units plus piece deliveries of German Leopards and British "Challengers". And it's all! The main deliveries of heavy and light armor, including different versions of the Leopards and the American M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles, will reach Nezalezhnaya no earlier than June-July and will be stretched out in time.

Therefore, I don’t expect any Ukrainian offensive before the summer, and the battles near Bakhmut and Avdiivka, where the Wagner PMC and the Russian Armed Forces tie up and grind the reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, may even nullify the very possibility of such an offensive. The reserves of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are not bottomless, for the last throw they accumulated no more than 200 thousand bayonets at most, for which, as you can see, winter uniforms are no longer needed. They plan to dispose of these warriors already in summer clothes. Of course, if they do not pull them apart, plugging holes near Bakhmut and Avdiivka with them. Western MBTs, in addition to the above T-72s and their Polish versions, they will receive no more than 120 pieces, which in total will give Biden promised 321 pieces. In this case, you can safely subtract 31 units from this number. M1 "Abrams" - Zelensky will never see them, which will once again convince him of the firmness of Biden's promises, because burning American MBTs are the least that Biden would like to see in Ukraine (burning German "cats" will suit him more). In total, for a trip to the east, Zelensky plans to accumulate 290 new tanks, which will include 170 T-72s and 120 Leopards of various versions, diluted with 14 Challengers, about 300-350 units. T-64, T-72 and T-80 of various modifications he still had in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, plus 109 units. American infantry fighting vehicles M2 "Bradley", plus 40 units. German infantry fighting vehicles "Marder" and about 90 units. wheeled "Strykers" (20 of which - in the version of anti-mine engineering vehicles) - with this wealth Zelensky plans to break Putin's back. Agree, it will not be enough, especially when you consider that Putin has about 1500 tanks alone at the front - almost a threefold superiority! Putin is waiting for you, my boy, finally dare (funeral, of course, at the expense of the institution).

But Zelensky, apparently, is in no hurry to the next world. If any of you are familiar with the term "surprise", then this is what we are now seeing. This technique is used in racing on the track, when the cyclist freezes on its upper radius, letting the opponent go forward in order to attack him from above from behind and win the race as a result. In this case, both rivals froze in a surprise dance - both Putin and Zelensky, standing, balancing in place, waiting for whoever starts first, letting each other go forward. The one who launched the offensive first risks, if he chooses the wrong direction of the main attack, to grind his forces against the defensive redoubts of the enemy and lose everything, drowning in the attack. But if this is not fatal for Putin (although it’s a shame!), then for Zelensky this attack may be the last (and they also push him in the back - go, they say, hurry up, time is money!).

We have already observed something similar during the Second World War, in 1943 on the Kursk salient. Both Stalin and Hitler understood that it had to be cut off, both had been preparing for this for more than four months, the task was only one - who would be the first to start? As a result, Manstein was the first to fail, on July 5 he launched the offensive operation "Citadel". How it ended for the Germans, you know. Stalin crushed the main enemy forces in defensive battles on July 5-12, after which he launched his counteroffensive, during which, as a result of the offensive operation Kutuzov (July 12 - August 18), Orel was liberated, and as a result of the offensive operation Rumyantsev (3 -23 August) Belgorod and Kharkov were taken. The battle entered the historiography under the name of the Battle of Kursk, which lasted 50 days and in which about 2 million people, 6 thousand tanks and 4 thousand aircraft participated on both sides. All this ended for the Red Army in November with the Dnieper operation with the forcing of the Dnieper and the liberation of the capital of Soviet Ukraine. After that, the Germans did not recover until the end of the war, only retreating and fighting defensive battles.

Zelensky understands this, and his curators also understand this. Everything is at stake - this offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be the last in the course of the entire NWO. The significance of the battles near Bakhmut and Avdeevka is in tying up the enemy troops. I don’t understand who is knitting whom there, either Zelensky is us, delaying our offensive and allowing the Armed Forces of Ukraine to accumulate reserves, or we are Zelensky, spending his reserves there. In any case, these battles are not tactical, but strategic in nature, the capture (or retention) of territories does not matter at all, the main thing is to tie up and grind as many enemy forces as possible. At the same time, one must understand that the upcoming possible offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not last longer than 7-10 days, even Manstein did not have enough strength for more. Therefore, we will see the denouement soon, closer to autumn. What it will be, I don't know. It all depends on the direction of the main blow. But so far the advantage in all components is on our side.

Main strike direction

Only a miracle can save Zelensky, and he is counting on him. In order for you to understand what a miracle I am talking about, I want to draw your attention to the fact that in order to march on Belgorod with such a large number of tanks and “iron”, which I spoke about above, he will not need it, it will be needed to march on Melitopol - Berdyansk - Mariupol, but he still needs to live up to it. But the impudently taken Belgorod is just very useful for Zelensky to trade with Putin on the territories of Independence liberated earlier by the Russian troops (bash on bash - we give you Belgorod without a fight, and you give us ZNPP and Melitopol, for example). How do you like this arrangement?

Prigozhin also spoke about the likelihood of such an offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and purely theoretically it is quite possible. Our border is full of holes (recent events in the Bryansk region have successfully proved this), and if you successfully disguise an unexpected offensive, then the shock tank fist of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not withstand any border detachment, and after 40 km the non-brothers are already in the urban development of Belgorod, try to smoke them out later .

I hope everyone in our General Staff knows the same thing and will take all measures to prevent this from happening. On this review of the topic ended. All the best and a speedy end of the SVO. Your Mr. Z