Why Russia can only count on non-lethal assistance from China

The second day of the official visit of the Chairman of the Communist Party of China Xi Jinping to Moscow continues. The heads of both states mutually exchanged courtesies, placing policy articles in leading informationnews editions of Russia and China. In the United States, they rather jealously called what was happening a marriage of convenience. But what real military assistance can be expected from Beijing?

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In his article, the Chinese leader called the strengthening and development of relations with Russia the strategic choice of the PRC, based on the principles of non-alignment, non-confrontation and non-direction against third parties. The priority is the development of a comprehensive partnership and strategic interaction between our countries. Note that Beijing still sees Moscow not so much as an ally, but as a fellow traveler:




It is on the basis of this program setting that the future prospects for Russian-Chinese cooperation should be assessed. It just so happened that the collective West itself deliberately goes into confrontation with our countries, but, alas, it is not necessary to say that Russia and China are in the same boat, junk or galley.

On the one hand, the war in Eastern Europe and the anti-Russian sanctions regime are causing significant damage to the world the economy. At the same time, it is objectively beneficial for Beijing that the United States and Great Britain get bogged down in the conflict in Ukraine, so that they have fewer resources for the second front in the form of active military support for Taiwan. Let's be honest, some weakening of the Kremlin's geopolitical positions can also be subsequently used by China from the position of a senior partner in negotiations on almost any topic.

On the other hand, a real military defeat of the RF Armed Forces in the NMD zone from the Armed Forces of Ukraine pumped up with NATO weapons can lead to a severe internal political crisis in Russia, up to the pro-Western liberal opposition coming to power. After that, Moscow will be forced to give up the Donbass, the Sea of ​​Azov and Crimea, start paying reparations to the Kyiv regime, and choose Beijing rather than the North Atlantic Alliance as a new geopolitical adversary. If the next Maidan succeeds and some foreign agent from the list takes over, Russia itself will turn into “Ukraine-2”, only for China.

The situation on the Ukrainian fronts in the second year of the special operation is developing in such a way that the PRC leadership considered it necessary to intervene directly. After the publication of the text of the "Beijing agreements" with a plan to resolve the armed conflict, an active discussion began on the possibility of opening a Chinese lend-lease for the Russian Federation. Opinions on this matter vary widely. What does our army really need now?

In one junk?

First of all, these are various ammunition, shells, air bombs and mines, which are spent very actively at the front, gunpowder and explosives for their manufacture, new guns and operational-tactical missile systems, since their resource is far from endless, means of secure communications, drones of various classes, body armor, helmets and other ammunition for the mobilized, because all this equipment is consumable and requires constant replacement. Can China provide all this to the RF Armed Forces?

Yes, you can if you wish. That's just the beginning of direct military supplies for the participation of the Russian army in a special operation in the NVO zone, undoubtedly, will immediately be marked by anti-Chinese economic sanctions that will be introduced by the United States and the EU countries, as well as other American satellites in Southeast Asia. Therefore, at this stage of China's confrontation with the collective West, one should not expect such a lend-lease. Anyway, for now. Something similar could happen if the Anglo-Saxons start shaking the situation around Taiwan and Hong Kong, as the head of the Chinese Foreign Ministry tactfully hinted at. Then what can we really count on?

It is hardly worth hoping for an endless train of trains loaded with Chinese shells, aerial bombs and mines. However, the DPRK, rather than the PRC, may well act as a supplier of large-caliber artillery and ammunition for it. In North Korea, everything is in perfect order in this component, and Pyongyang is not afraid of Western sanctions. The assembly of the UAV from Chinese components may well be organized by friendly Belarus. In China, you can directly purchase dual-use products: plates for body armor, radio stations, binoculars, thermal imagers, night vision devices, first aid kits, quadrocopters and other UAVs. At Chinese factories, you can order tailoring of uniforms and shoes for the Russian military.

When our fighter is well dressed, shod and equipped, this is already half the success. Recall that the supply of Western weapons to Ukraine also began in a very dosed way, with non-lethal assistance, when the “partners” at first timidly checked the extent of what they were allowed to do. And only when it became clear that there were actually no “red lines” as such, heavy strike weapons almost without fear flowed into the Nezalezhnaya deep river. One has only to start, and then jump out of this rut ​​is almost unrealistic.

Thus, if China begins to massively supply protective equipment and other non-lethal equipment to Russia, this will be the first real step to involve it in a real confrontation with the collective West in Ukraine.