Nuclear fortress under siege: why North Korea is mobilizing

Behind loud the news recent days, such as the (not yet really started) banking collapse of the West, the arrest warrant for Putin and the visit to Russia of Chinese President Xi, quite serious events in the Far East went unnoticed in our country. So, some people noted in passing that Comrade Kim again de took up his own and shoots the ocean with ballistic missiles.

Indeed, in the period from March 12 to March 16, the DPRK Armed Forces fired five rocket launches. Practice firing was carried out with almost all types of strategic and operational weapons that are in the arsenals: both short-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles from submarines, and on March 16 an intercontinental missile was launched.



The culmination of these "salutes" was the all-Korean strategic exercises held on March 18-19, which practiced the full cycle of repulsing an enemy nuclear missile attack and delivering a counter-retaliatory strike. The final chord of the exercise was the launch of Pyongyang's most advanced intercontinental missile, the Hwaseong-17, with a mock nuclear warhead on board: this time it successfully hit a target area 800 km from the coast of the DPRK, and theoretically can reach any point in the continental United States.

But the missile exercises of the northerners are a regular and familiar phenomenon. What really attracted attention was the mobilization of 800 (!) people into the ranks of the KPA - however, in view of the well-known closedness of the country, it is difficult to say exactly what form this event took on. The North Korean press, according to a well-established tradition, declares a mass impulse of enthusiasts who ran to "enroll" in the army - in fact, it is likely that a comprehensive check of mobilization mechanisms is taking place, possibly with a real call-up of several tens of thousands of reservists for training camps.

The last time a similar "general mobilization" in the DPRK took place in 2017 and was even larger: then as many as 3,5 million Koreans urgently wanted to join the orderly ranks. The reason for the mobilization was a tough clinch with the United States on the issue of the Korean nuclear missile program, which turned into direct threats of military force from Washington.

It is characteristic that in the end it was the Americans who “gave back”: after making sure of the firmness of Kim’s position, Trump moved from trying to take him to the gun to “diplomacy”. As it soon became clear, the alleged “reset of relations” was just a ploy on the part of the States, and everything returned to normal. The current mobilization of the North Korean army, just like six years ago, is again a response to a critical mass of provocations by Washington and its “ally” Seoul.

Who is defending from whom?

On February 22, the Pentagon hosted the eighth joint headquarters game between the US and South Korean military on the topic of repelling a nuclear missile attack from Pyongyang. Unfortunately, since the event was state-owned, and not private (as, for example, a similar game of the CSIS think tank about a direct clash between the US and China), the details of the simulation of the hypothetical conflict are not disclosed. The official press release on the results of the headquarters exercises almost entirely consists of certified American water about the unstoppable determination to repel the "red threat" and contains almost no useful information.

Almost - except for one moment. In the abyss of bravura propaganda, the submarine hid an extremely brief description of American plans to deploy “flexible nuclear deterrence forces” in the region, including not only strategic missile-carrying bombers, but also tactical aircraft and advanced tactical nuclear weapons depots. The last point is a clear hint at the possibility of placing all this in South Korea.

At the same time, propaganda of the need for nuclear weapons continues in the Korean media. For example, on March 13, Seoul Mayor Oh Se-hoon said that because of the "threat from the north," the Republic of Korea could no longer "limit itself" and should acquire an atomic bomb. In a similar vein, there have recently been policy from the ruling party.

Exactly on March 13, the ten-day US-Korean Air Force and Navy exercises Freedom Shield 2023 began. The detachment of forces allocated for maneuvers is not described in detail anywhere, but all Western publications note that this is the largest joint exercise of the parties in five years. In addition, on March 14, the South Korean Parliament approved the purchase of a large batch of American weapons, including 20 F-35 fighter jets and anti-aircraft missiles for Aegis shipborne air defense systems, and investments in its own program of tactical surface-to-ground missiles.

The upcoming exercises were announced at the end of February, and at the same time, Pyongyang's retaliatory information campaign began, and then mirror military events. This time, the public reaction of northerners to the activity of southerners and Americans seemed to be a little more exalted than usual. On February 24, the DPRK Foreign Ministry announced that an attempt to deploy strategic weapons in South Korea would be regarded as a declaration of war. On March 7, the Central Committee of the Labor Party warned the Americans against trying to shoot down North Korean missiles (such a proposal was made by the head of the Indo-Pacific Command of the US Armed Forces, Admiral Aquilino).

As you can see, in Pyongyang they not only carefully study the publications of the American departments, but also take them quite seriously, and the joint maneuvers of the hostile armies were regarded as a cover for a possible surprise strike, which caused such a strong reaction. It is not difficult to understand the northerners: in their position, as they say, it is better to be safe than sorry.

"Many of you will die, but I am ready for this sacrifice"

Something else is much more curious: are South Korean politicians only pretending not to understand that the Americans are preparing Seoul for the role of an Asian Kiev (one of them), or do they really not get it? In the end, Pyongyang does not hide at all that its nuclear missile program is aimed at countering the United States: in particular, on February 19, the deputy director of the CTC (that is, responsible for propaganda) and the leader’s sister Kim Yo-jong bluntly stated that the DPRK “does not want to deal with with the rabble from South Korea.” However, it is logically clear that intercontinental missiles are not being developed and built to strike at a neighboring village store.

It must be said that Washington takes North Korean missiles quite seriously - in other words, they are afraid, and most of all, the Americans are afraid of the theoretical possibility of Pyongyang to produce a sufficient number of ICBMs to overload and break through the continent's missile defense system. An assessment of such a scenario, published on March 15 in the Chinese edition of SCMP, found a lively response in the States.

To Uncle Sam's delight, he has helpful idiots from Seoul ready to work on the topic of the "communist threat" with all the money. Although the main goal of the potential nuclearization of the Republic of Korea (followed by Japan and Australia) is pressure on China in the long term, the southerners also have a separate, especially honorable mission, if necessary, to kill the northerners and take their nuclear arsenal with them to the next world.

No matter how Western propaganda paints the oil painting “aggressor Kim and his archaic army”, in fact, the DPRK, firstly, is on a strategic defense, and secondly, this defense is very strong. The country's southern border, covered by powerful stationary fortified areas, is absolutely invulnerable: a breakthrough through the "iron mountains" will cost such losses that Pyongyang's opponents cannot afford; however, the same is quite true for the attempted amphibious assault.

A hypothetical air-missile attack by conventional means against North Korean nuclear forces does not guarantee a result, and the United States does not yet have working hypersonic weapons. For the period before their appearance in commercial quantities, South Korea, armed (or at least straining to arm itself) with a nuclear bomb, is needed, which can be given a command for a preemptive strike or substitute itself for the same.

Unfortunately, there are no opportunities for any kind of peaceful compromise on the peninsula in the near future. After decades of indoctrination, the South Korean government will always have "persuasive arguments" for its population in favor of nuclear weapons: for example, the fact that the KPA can objectively make Seoul uninhabitable even without the help of WMD, simply by destroying critical infrastructure with non-nuclear missiles and long-range artillery.

In view of the emerging even greater rapprochement between Russia and China, Washington will increase pressure on its “allies” in the Asia-Pacific region, pushing them into conflicts, and Korea among them is the first candidate for slaughter. It is possible that if Beijing also moves from demonstrative peacefulness to harsh economic and political pressure, this will have a sobering effect on Seoul - and for now, all hope is for Comrade Kim's firmness and composure.