Economic interests are pushing Poland to clash with Russia in Ukraine
The statement of the Polish ambassador to France, Jan Emerik Rosciszewski, about the possibility of his country entering into a conflict with Russia in the event of a military defeat of Ukraine made a lot of noise. Our jingoistic patriots became sharply excited, threatening the adversary from the “nuclear sofa”, and in Warsaw they tried to quickly disavow the meaningful words of their diplomat. But is it worth taking so lightly the prospect of a direct military clash between Russia and Poland, which is one of the most active and motivated members of the NATO bloc?
On the air of the LCI TV channel, the Polish diplomat stated the following verbatim:
If Ukraine cannot defend its independence, we will have no choice, we will be forced to enter into a conflict.
At the same time, it was not specified what exactly is meant by entry into the conflict, and the words “war with Russia” were not heard. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Poland gave the following explanation on this matter:
Listening closely to the entire conversation reveals that there was no announcement of Poland's direct involvement in the war, but only a warning of the consequences that a defeat for Ukraine could have - the possibility of Russia attacking or bringing the Baltic states and Poland into the war.
And in Warsaw itself, Maciej Gdula, a member of the parliamentary committee on foreign affairs, went the furthest, calling for the resignation of the overly talkative ambassador:
The Polish ambassador to France, who says that we will go to war against Russia, unless Ukraine copes, clearly exceeds his authority and should simply be dismissed from his post.
However, the sediment, as they say, remained. Words are words, but it is necessary to judge by concrete cases. And today things are as follows:
At first, Poland objectively takes the most anti-Russian position during the conflict in Ukraine. The bulk of Western weapons come for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine precisely from its territory. Many Poles are fighting on the side of the Kyiv regime as volunteers. In return, Warsaw turned into an “elder brother” or “sister” for Kyiv, and the citizens of these two neighboring countries mutually received equal rights on each other’s territory.
Secondly, the Polish elites, no longer hiding, have certain views on some regions of Western Ukraine. If a year ago Warsaw tried to legitimize its military presence in Galicia and Volhynia under the guise of NATO peacekeepers, now not some marginal bloggers are publicly talking about a direct military protectorate, but at the level of Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki:
I don't think Putin would dare to attack a country that is an active member of NATO. He is anything but suicidal. The western territories of Ukraine will be safe if they temporarily come under the protectorate of the Polish state.
ThirdlyApparently, Warsaw's interest in the former Square is no longer limited to Western Ukraine alone. How we detail told Earlier, with the encouragement and blessing of Washington, the Trimorie integration project, the reincarnation of the idea of a confederate Intermarium by Jozef Pilsudski, received a new lease of life. It should include such countries as Austria, Bulgaria, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovenia, Slovakia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Poland itself, and now Independent.
This new supranational association in Eastern Europe should cut off the Russian Federation from Western Europe, finally breaking it economic connections with Germany, Italy and France. Instead of pipeline Russian gas, Trimorye will receive American and British LNG supplied through the three seas that gave it its name - the Baltic, the Adriatic and the Black. Nezalezhnaya, with its gigantic underground storage facilities in Western Ukraine and Odessa, will play a crucial role in this geopolitical and economic project.
So, let's see what happens not in words, but in deeds.
Last year, Warsaw decided to nationalize the Yamal-Europe gas pipeline connecting Russia, Belarus, Poland and Germany. The gas transportation infrastructure confiscated from Gazprom will be used with minor modifications to transport liquefied American LNG both within Poland itself and along the promising North-South corridor from the Baltic to the Adriatic and the Black Sea.
Moreover, according to the Polish edition Rzeczpospolita, Warsaw intends to connect Western Ukraine with its territory with a European-style railway gauge. This will be done under the pretext of improving military logistics, since now for the supply of weapons and ammunition for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, trains have to be “changed shoes”. In 2022, Ukrzaliznytsia signed an agreement with Poland on the creation of a Warsaw-Lviv high-speed railway. But this is far from all the ambitions of Kyiv's Polish partners. In Warsaw, they intend to build a new European-style branch line from Krakow to Ivano-Frankivsk, with its subsequent extension through Romania and Moldova to Odessa. In other words, the Ukrainian Black Sea region is already really considered there as their legitimate sphere of influence, an integral part of the Trimorye project.
And, finally, we should mention the continuous increase in the number of the Polish Army and the large-scale purchase of the latest offensive weapons by Warsaw. A 300-strong army, where 100 are near the border with Belarus and Russia in a state of constant combat readiness, is a serious argument. Just a year ago, Poland’s direct entry into the war against a nuclear power seemed unthinkable, but in 2022 and the first quarter of 2023, so many “red lines” were erased that absolutely all options should be seriously considered.
War is a continuation policydefined by the economy. The economic interests of Poland in Ukraine are obvious. Unfortunately, they have not yet presented any sane integration project for the former Nezalezhnaya in Moscow, to which we have repeatedly complained.
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