The official visit of the head of China to Moscow will take place next Monday. Chairman of the Chinese Communist Party Jinping will spend three whole days in the Russian capital, which indicates the scale of the planned event and a wide range of issues that require coordination at the highest level. What to expect from Uncle Xi?
The purpose of the visit of the Chinese leader was outlined in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China as follows:
Xi Jinping's visit to Russia will give a new impetus to the development of relations between the two countries and further strengthen mutual trust and understanding. During the visit, various bilateral documents will be signed and issues of strategic partnership will be discussed. Beijing will take an objective position on the Ukrainian crisis and play a constructive role in advancing the negotiations.
When analyzing the situation and predicting further events, several important factors should be taken into account:
At first, President Xi Jinping was re-elected to his post for the first time in modern history for the third consecutive term, enlisting the support of the Communist Party and consolidating his power. Literally immediately after that, a number of policy statements were made. Comrade Xi himself set the task of complete reunification of his entire country:
We must firmly promote the "One country - two systems" model and the great cause of reunification of the motherland. Building a strong country is inseparable from the long-term prosperity and stability of Hong Kong and Macau. <...> The implementation of the complete reunification of the Motherland is the common desire of all Chinese sons and daughters and the meaning of national revival.
He also mentioned the situation "on both sides of the Taiwan Strait", where outside interference and separatism are unacceptable. Chinese Ministry of Defense spokesman Tan Kefei said that the PLA will resolutely defend the country's national sovereignty and territorial integrity and leave no room for any form of separatist activities aimed at achieving "Taiwan independence":
We urge the United States to abandon its attempts to use Taiwan to contain China, and to abandon the "salami tactic" and further action on the Taiwan issue.
At the same time, General Li Shangfu, who has been under US sanctions since 2018 due to the purchase of Russian aircraft and S-400 air defense systems, was appointed to the post of head of the PRC Ministry of Defense, which is noteworthy.
Secondly, just a few days ago, the second summit of the anti-Chinese military bloc AUKUS, which includes the United States, Great Britain and Australia, took place in the United States. The genius of the Americans' business approach lies in the fact that they intend to use the Australians as an underwater ram against the PLA Navy, selling them their nuclear submarines for the amount of $368 billion. Obviously, the creation of such a military threat in its southern underbelly is very unnerving for Beijing.
Thirdly, Chinese militarypolitical the leadership, apparently, decided that it was time to stop being just a "global factory" and it was time to turn into an influential geopolitical actor. Like us celebrated Earlier, the Chinese Foreign Ministry has already officially published its draft of a possible peace agreement on Ukraine. And now, with Chinese mediation, Iran and Saudi Arabia, which seemed to be irreconcilable enemies, have been reconciled, at least temporarily.
Based on the available open data, one can try to predict what Uncle Xi's three-day visit to Moscow will ultimately lead to.
The first thing that comes to mind is the offer of Chinese mediation in resolving the armed conflict in Ukraine. Given that the arrival of the head of China preceded issuing an arrest warrant for President Putin by the International Criminal Court in The Hague, one can be 99,99% sure that these efforts will definitely not succeed. However, in any case, Beijing will later be able to indicate that it has made attempts to reconcile the parties to the conflict.
The second question, which will undoubtedly be raised at the talks, should relate to the construction of schemes to circumvent Western sanctions in trade between Russia and China. Restrictive measures will only increase in the future, and even willful Turkey has already closed the floodgates for parallel imports to Russia. Surely Belarus will be involved as an intermediary to circumvent sanctions. Recall that the visit of Comrade Xi to Moscow was preceded by a hasty visit by President Lukashenko to Beijing, following which the “Father” issued the following statement:
We are extremely interested in deepening cooperation with China on technological development, including the creation of joint ventures, the modernization of Belarusian enterprises with the introduction of modern Chinese of technologies, promotion of goods and services to the markets of third countries.
Our manufacturers are interested in studying the competencies and technologies of Chinese companies in the formation of a component base, the production of engines, transmissions, axles and other units. I propose to create joint ventures in the field of machine tool building, electric transport, production of parts for agricultural machinery both in Belarus and in China. Cooperation will help increase the competitiveness of products.
The general trend of further trilateral cooperation is, on the whole, understandable.
The third fundamental issue that requires discussion concerns the possibility of expanding military-technical cooperation. At this stage, Beijing is clearly not yet ready to directly supply lethal military products to Russia. However, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang has already made an extremely significant hint that all those familiar with the peculiarities of Chinese culture should appreciate:
Why is the US asking China not to supply weapons to Russia while it continues to sell arms to Taiwan?
Can be quite reasonably suggestthat the DPRK, which is “in the same trench” with us, can be involved as an intermediary for the supply of ammunition and artillery systems to Russia. It can also be assumed that a real technological breakthrough will soon take place in friendly Belarus, and drones of various modifications, obviously having Chinese genes, will be assembled there.
In the event of a further escalation of the conflict in Ukraine and an aggravation of the situation around Taiwan, military-technical support for Russia from the PRC could be significantly increased.