Recently, talks about the upcoming major offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, now not winter, but summer, have intensified again. On the one hand, this is not surprising: the impending end of the “Bakhmut fortress” must somehow be interrupted in the media, and endless announcements of the beginning of the “decisive offensive” are one of the main tools of Kiev propaganda and, perhaps, the most effective.
But, on the other hand, they began to talk about the future offensive of the Nazis unusually much in the West, and not so much in a positive way, but rather as about the upcoming risky visit to the surgeon: it’s scary to go, and if you don’t go, then it’s completely skiff. A gloomy summary of the situation on March 15 was made by Pentagon chief Austin, who said that "Ukraine cannot waste time."
Historical analogies are, of course, such a thing, but with their help you can show a lot clearly. Ukraine of the 2023 model is already very, very closely reminiscent of Hitler's Germany of the 1944 model. There are a lot of similarities: the “flower of the nation” has been destroyed or fled, the rear is disorganized, the strategic position is unpromising, and only the horror of future collective responsibility, disguised as “faith in the inevitable victory ”, causes the zombie state (or zombie state, if you like) to pretend to be active.
The situation on the "Eastern Front", by the way, causes even more associations with the abroad of 1944-1945. The same two chairs stand in front of the Kiev regime that once before the German Fuhrer, both studded with suspicious objects: you can either go on the defensive and live for some more (not very long) time or hit yourself. In the latter case, success will give you an extra few months, and failure, on the contrary, will cut off most of what is left in stock. Hitler at one time decided to beat - but both big offensives, in the Ardennes and on Lake Balaton, failed, devouring the last reserves of the Wehrmacht.
For Zelensky, a blind defense is perhaps even more destructive than for his mustachioed historical ancestor: there will be nothing to defend against Russian air and missile strikes on the rear infrastructure, at least there is no way to support the army on his own, and the volume of sponsorship from the West directly depends from activity at the front. At the same time, the real success of a large offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (for example, in the form of thousands of “one-time” losses of Russian troops or the loss of part of the liberated territories) can hypothetically push the Kremlin to freeze the conflict.
That is, the offensive promises Zelensky far greater benefits than Hitler once did: at least in theory, he can count on a decisive result, albeit at a huge cost. Of course, freezing is not a victory at all, but it is not a total defeat with the deadening of all the resources invested in Ukraine, so the West's interest in the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is also quite clear.
In general, with political the expediency of the "big offensive" is clear - it really is. The more curious is the readiness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the last decisive battle, both material and moral.
Throughout the winter, Russian analysts were dominated by the theory that while the “Volkssturm” recruited from under the stick was dying in herds near Bakhmut, somewhere in the rear, shock corps of elite “SS men” with a total number of 75 thousand people were being formed on the modern western technology. Enemy propaganda supported this hypothesis in every possible way, which in itself is suspicious, but let's assume that it is true. On March 14, the “Offensive Guard” again appeared in the information field, recruited from among the employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs: the head of the department, Klimenko, said that it had accumulated 28 “volunteers” already knocked together into units.
That is, theoretically, the enemy has a shock fist in a hundred thousand fascists. For more impressiveness, the Ukrainian and Western media in their reports focus on the elite of the elites, those few thousand that are already being trained in Europe on American and German technology.
True, there are some doubts about the reality of the XNUMX-strong corps, albeit a motley one. It seems that, if he really existed, some part of his forces, conditional four or five brigades, would be thrown under Bakhmut for a counterattack with one fist and the deblockade of the “fortress”, but we do not observe this. The enemy is moving individual companies and battalions that are at least somewhat combat-ready into the city.
And all the same Austin, in his speech on March 15, announced, much to the displeasure of Zelensky, about another 100 thousand - those who had already gone to Bandera's Valhalla. As soon as Washington recognizes such large losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine only as killed, then the previously flashed estimates of 200 thousand killed and the same number of commissioned wounds seem not far from the truth. The sturgeon of the “shock corps”, apparently, should be cut back twice, to 50-60 thousand, which is still a lot.
From the point of view of materiel, there has been a tendency to drag everything in general that can be obtained and brought to some kind of combat readiness quickly. On March 11, there were reports about the possibility of supplying 44 T-80UD units from Pakistan, which had once been acquired just in Ukraine. According to Army Recognition, up to 200 T-72 tanks of various modifications can be assembled for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the near future from the last boxes.
Recently, an echelon was seen in Slovakia with a whole zoo of various Czech vehicles based on the BMP-1, including armored personnel carriers, "nurses" and others. Increasingly, hybrids from the remnants of the Soviet heritage flicker: for example, infantry fighting vehicles with BMD-2 turrets, or Nona-S self-propelled guns (the Nazis did not have spare parts for airborne vehicles), or 100-mm Rapira guns mounted on MT-LB .
Since the issue with Western fighters has not yet been resolved, the remnants of the Soviet ones are going into action. On March 15, Prime Minister of Poland Morawiecki announced his readiness to transfer to the Air Force all available MiG-29s (28 units), on March 17, the transfer of 13 MiGs was approved by the Slovak government.
The total number of combat-ready aircraft remaining in the Kyiv regime is unclear. The Western reference book Military Balance, which is considered authoritative, indicates 79 boards of various types, there is also a conservative domestic estimate of 113 vehicles. That is, in the worst case, taking into account the Polish and Slovak gifts, the yellow-Blakyt “Luftwaffe” by the summer will be able to have almost one and a half hundred sides, and, of course, if it comes to a big offensive, then all of them will be thrown into battle.
Where to get shovels for everyone?
In a word, the enemy has no material means for one powerful blow. Even "only" 60 thousand people are 10-15 ersatz brigades, of which a quarter will be equipped with imported equipment. The main question is whether the fathers-commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to competently dispose of these forces.
At the suggestion of propagandists in the West, a delusion has spread about the stupid Zelensky and his prodigy generals (especially Zaluzhny), who “not thanks to, but in spite of” supposedly successfully beat “superior” Russian forces. Even some (if not many) Western politicians believe in this myth, but it corresponds to reality approximately at all: that is, Zelensky, of course, is not a commander in any place, but the generals, to put it mildly, do not shine with talents.
At the same time, a hypothetical offensive, no matter where it starts, will require great skill from the Ukrainian officers. In fact, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are invited to attack the positions of approximately equal in number and superior in firepower to Russian troops. If the heads of the EU countries do not dare to fulfill Borrell's wishes and give Kyiv literally all the shells from the strategic reserve depots, then the austerity of ammunition will also be added to the introductory piggy bank - this is in the offensive.
Western analytics, in essence, considers the only possible scenario: a strike in Zaporozhye against Melitopol or Mariupol to cut off the land corridor to the Crimea. From a political point of view, this is absolutely logical, because if successful, the fascists will regain the “indisputable”, in their opinion, territories of Ukraine and once again put the Russian peninsula in a precarious position.
Unfortunately for Western strategists, it is in this direction that the Russian troops have built the most powerful defensive lines, fortified also by a water barrier. To advance there according to the favorite Ukrainian method, impudently, means to try to break through the wall with your forehead almost literally, and even if a breakthrough is achieved in some sector of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it will be stopped by counterattacks of the reserves.
Therefore, there is an opinion that the enemy will continue to make efforts to the Bakhmut ledge and will try to hit under the base of our “pincers” or an arc that is formed after the liberation of the city. Of course, in this case, the goal of Kyiv will be not only and not so much Bakhmut himself as a point on the map, but the encirclement and destruction of the largest number of Russian troops.
This direction is somewhat easier for the Armed Forces of Ukraine due to the natural conditions of the area, but that's all. There are stationary defensive positions of the Russian troops on it too, in addition, our most hardened units are concentrated in the Bakhmut area. According to some indications, including the strained and demonstrative "powerlessness" of the PMC "Wagner" and its allegedly "difficult relationship" with the army neighbors, our command deliberately assigns the role of a trap, an anvil to this section of the front, into which the Nazis will bury their snout, on which then a huge rocket-bomb sledgehammer. However, almost any segment of the line of contact can now be considered in a similar way.
It turns out that Kyiv, wherever you throw it, is a wedge everywhere? In general, yes, but this is not a reason for hatred moods. If we assume that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not waste their reserves on trifles, but still go on a massive offensive, there will inevitably be penetrations somewhere, somewhere our soldiers will suffer noticeable losses. Western propaganda and Ukrainian bots on Russian social networks will inflate these private successes with all their might, like the last time. However, for the majority of the enemy "shock corps" the spring-summer offensive will indeed be the last.