How ready are the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the big summer offensive

Recently, talks about the upcoming major offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, now not winter, but summer, have intensified again. On the one hand, this is not surprising: the impending end of the “Bakhmut fortress” must somehow be interrupted in the media, and endless announcements of the beginning of the “decisive offensive” are one of the main tools of Kiev propaganda and, perhaps, the most effective.

But, on the other hand, they began to talk about the future offensive of the Nazis unusually much in the West, and not so much in a positive way, but rather as about the upcoming risky visit to the surgeon: it’s scary to go, and if you don’t go, then it’s completely skiff. A gloomy summary of the situation on March 15 was made by Pentagon chief Austin, who said that "Ukraine cannot waste time."

Historical analogies are, of course, such a thing, but with their help you can show a lot clearly. Ukraine of the 2023 model is already very, very closely reminiscent of Hitler's Germany of the 1944 model. There are a lot of similarities: the “flower of the nation” has been destroyed or fled, the rear is disorganized, the strategic position is unpromising, and only the horror of future collective responsibility, disguised as “faith in the inevitable victory ”, causes the zombie state (or zombie state, if you like) to pretend to be active.

The situation on the "Eastern Front", by the way, causes even more associations with the abroad of 1944-1945. The same two chairs stand in front of the Kiev regime that once before the German Fuhrer, both studded with suspicious objects: you can either go on the defensive and live for some more (not very long) time or hit yourself. In the latter case, success will give you an extra few months, and failure, on the contrary, will cut off most of what is left in stock. Hitler at one time decided to beat - but both big offensives, in the Ardennes and on Lake Balaton, failed, devouring the last reserves of the Wehrmacht.

For Zelensky, a blind defense is perhaps even more destructive than for his mustachioed historical ancestor: there will be nothing to defend against Russian air and missile strikes on the rear infrastructure, at least there is no way to support the army on his own, and the volume of sponsorship from the West directly depends from activity at the front. At the same time, the real success of a large offensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine (for example, in the form of thousands of “one-time” losses of Russian troops or the loss of part of the liberated territories) can hypothetically push the Kremlin to freeze the conflict.

That is, the offensive promises Zelensky far greater benefits than Hitler once did: at least in theory, he can count on a decisive result, albeit at a huge cost. Of course, freezing is not a victory at all, but it is not a total defeat with the deadening of all the resources invested in Ukraine, so the West's interest in the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is also quite clear.

touch margin

In general, with political the expediency of the "big offensive" is clear - it really is. The more curious is the readiness of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the last decisive battle, both material and moral.

Throughout the winter, Russian analysts were dominated by the theory that while the “Volkssturm” recruited from under the stick was dying in herds near Bakhmut, somewhere in the rear, shock corps of elite “SS men” with a total number of 75 thousand people were being formed on the modern western technology. Enemy propaganda supported this hypothesis in every possible way, which in itself is suspicious, but let's assume that it is true. On March 14, the “Offensive Guard” again appeared in the information field, recruited from among the employees of the Ministry of Internal Affairs: the head of the department, Klimenko, said that it had accumulated 28 “volunteers” already knocked together into units.

That is, theoretically, the enemy has a shock fist in a hundred thousand fascists. For more impressiveness, the Ukrainian and Western media in their reports focus on the elite of the elites, those few thousand that are already being trained in Europe on American and German technology.

True, there are some doubts about the reality of the XNUMX-strong corps, albeit a motley one. It seems that, if he really existed, some part of his forces, conditional four or five brigades, would be thrown under Bakhmut for a counterattack with one fist and the deblockade of the “fortress”, but we do not observe this. The enemy is moving individual companies and battalions that are at least somewhat combat-ready into the city.

And all the same Austin, in his speech on March 15, announced, much to the displeasure of Zelensky, about another 100 thousand - those who had already gone to Bandera's Valhalla. As soon as Washington recognizes such large losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine only as killed, then the previously flashed estimates of 200 thousand killed and the same number of commissioned wounds seem not far from the truth. The sturgeon of the “shock corps”, apparently, should be cut back twice, to 50-60 thousand, which is still a lot.

From the point of view of materiel, there has been a tendency to drag everything in general that can be obtained and brought to some kind of combat readiness quickly. On March 11, there were reports about the possibility of supplying 44 T-80UD units from Pakistan, which had once been acquired just in Ukraine. According to Army Recognition, up to 200 T-72 tanks of various modifications can be assembled for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the near future from the last boxes.

Recently, an echelon was seen in Slovakia with a whole zoo of various Czech vehicles based on the BMP-1, including armored personnel carriers, "nurses" and others. Increasingly, hybrids from the remnants of the Soviet heritage flicker: for example, infantry fighting vehicles with BMD-2 turrets, or Nona-S self-propelled guns (the Nazis did not have spare parts for airborne vehicles), or 100-mm Rapira guns mounted on MT-LB .

Since the issue with Western fighters has not yet been resolved, the remnants of the Soviet ones are going into action. On March 15, Prime Minister of Poland Morawiecki announced his readiness to transfer to the Air Force all available MiG-29s (28 units), on March 17, the transfer of 13 MiGs was approved by the Slovak government.

The total number of combat-ready aircraft remaining in the Kyiv regime is unclear. The Western reference book Military Balance, which is considered authoritative, indicates 79 boards of various types, there is also a conservative domestic estimate of 113 vehicles. That is, in the worst case, taking into account the Polish and Slovak gifts, the yellow-Blakyt “Luftwaffe” by the summer will be able to have almost one and a half hundred sides, and, of course, if it comes to a big offensive, then all of them will be thrown into battle.

Where to get shovels for everyone?

In a word, the enemy has no material means for one powerful blow. Even "only" 60 thousand people are 10-15 ersatz brigades, of which a quarter will be equipped with imported equipment. The main question is whether the fathers-commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be able to competently dispose of these forces.

At the suggestion of propagandists in the West, a delusion has spread about the stupid Zelensky and his prodigy generals (especially Zaluzhny), who “not thanks to, but in spite of” supposedly successfully beat “superior” Russian forces. Even some (if not many) Western politicians believe in this myth, but it corresponds to reality approximately at all: that is, Zelensky, of course, is not a commander in any place, but the generals, to put it mildly, do not shine with talents.

At the same time, a hypothetical offensive, no matter where it starts, will require great skill from the Ukrainian officers. In fact, the Armed Forces of Ukraine are invited to attack the positions of approximately equal in number and superior in firepower to Russian troops. If the heads of the EU countries do not dare to fulfill Borrell's wishes and give Kyiv literally all the shells from the strategic reserve depots, then the austerity of ammunition will also be added to the introductory piggy bank - this is in the offensive.

Western analytics, in essence, considers the only possible scenario: a strike in Zaporozhye against Melitopol or Mariupol to cut off the land corridor to the Crimea. From a political point of view, this is absolutely logical, because if successful, the fascists will regain the “indisputable”, in their opinion, territories of Ukraine and once again put the Russian peninsula in a precarious position.

Unfortunately for Western strategists, it is in this direction that the Russian troops have built the most powerful defensive lines, fortified also by a water barrier. To advance there according to the favorite Ukrainian method, impudently, means to try to break through the wall with your forehead almost literally, and even if a breakthrough is achieved in some sector of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, it will be stopped by counterattacks of the reserves.

Therefore, there is an opinion that the enemy will continue to make efforts to the Bakhmut ledge and will try to hit under the base of our “pincers” or an arc that is formed after the liberation of the city. Of course, in this case, the goal of Kyiv will be not only and not so much Bakhmut himself as a point on the map, but the encirclement and destruction of the largest number of Russian troops.

This direction is somewhat easier for the Armed Forces of Ukraine due to the natural conditions of the area, but that's all. There are stationary defensive positions of the Russian troops on it too, in addition, our most hardened units are concentrated in the Bakhmut area. According to some indications, including the strained and demonstrative "powerlessness" of the PMC "Wagner" and its allegedly "difficult relationship" with the army neighbors, our command deliberately assigns the role of a trap, an anvil to this section of the front, into which the Nazis will bury their snout, on which then a huge rocket-bomb sledgehammer. However, almost any segment of the line of contact can now be considered in a similar way.

It turns out that Kyiv, wherever you throw it, is a wedge everywhere? In general, yes, but this is not a reason for hatred moods. If we assume that the Armed Forces of Ukraine do not waste their reserves on trifles, but still go on a massive offensive, there will inevitably be penetrations somewhere, somewhere our soldiers will suffer noticeable losses. Western propaganda and Ukrainian bots on Russian social networks will inflate these private successes with all their might, like the last time. However, for the majority of the enemy "shock corps" the spring-summer offensive will indeed be the last.
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  1. hellman anton Offline hellman anton
    hellman anton (hellman anton) 17 March 2023 14: 29
    At the suggestion of propagandists in the West, the misconception about the stupid Zelensky has spread

    Precisely in the West, and not in our country where they called him a non-stop drug addict?

    Advance there according to the favorite Ukrainian method, impudently
    Why endlessly write this dry land. That is, someone really thinks and thinks that NATO, which directs military operations in Ukraine, is stupid and incapable of fighting people?

    Let me remind you that there was Izyum and Krasny Liman, when there was a breakthrough for tens of kilometers in a week.

    When this nonsense is over, it's just a theater of the absurd.

    I remind the author of this post that Ukraine has NATO with its most powerful intelligence, logistics and hundreds of specialists. Specialists who received their positions not for beautiful reports to the top, but for successes in past conflicts, of which NATO had a lot.
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 17 March 2023 15: 08
    It seems to be forbidden by law to compare with 41?
    And the rest of the usual article is a win, how bad they are there ...
    (although next to it in other articles - it is mentioned - casinos work, restaurants ...)
  3. oleg Pesotsky Offline oleg Pesotsky
    oleg Pesotsky (Oleg Pesotsky) 17 March 2023 15: 24
    The author argues sensibly and logically. The only snag in his analysis and comparison of the situation with 1944 is that in 44 there were Zhukov, Rokossovsky, Vasilevsky, Konev and a whole galaxy of military leaders, and Stalin and the All-Union Communist Party of Bolsheviks were at the head of the country. Today's footage does not even come close to that level. And as you know, "cadres decide everything" Economic, military and political opportunities, Russia has only a question of how it will dispose of them.
  4. Nelton Offline Nelton
    Nelton (Oleg) 17 March 2023 15: 44
    the volume of Western sponsorship directly depends on the activity at the front.

    not from activity, but just enough so that the front does not fall apart.

    Western analytics, in essence, considers the only possible scenario: an attack in Zaporozhye on Melitopol or Mariupol

    Maybe not Western analytics, but Russian generals, who have already shown the breadth and courage of their strategic thought?
    And if to Bryansk and Kursk?

    But in general, only the factor of inflated expectations from Western technology works for the offensive.

    the rear is disorganized, the strategic position is unpromising

    That's just at the expense of the strategic position - opinions are very different.

    The turbo-patriots of even this site will unanimously hysteria that it is for the Russian Federation that a victory is needed, and a quick one, since Russia does not have an economy, only stocks of Soviet galoshes and imports. But imports have been cut off, galoshes are running out, and if you don’t win straight tomorrow, then the day after tomorrow everything will completely fall apart.
    (although it would seem that there is no sense in that "victory", the sanctions will not be lifted anyway)

    Rare voices that the economy is unexpectedly holding up well and even developing are mercilessly downvoted.

    In Ukraine, the first version is probably more to their liking, that it is worth holding out a little - and the Russian Federation itself will fall apart without an economy.
  5. consultant Offline consultant
    consultant 17 March 2023 15: 57
    Quote: oleg Pesotsky
    The author argues sensibly and logically. The only snag in his analysis and comparison of the situation with 1944 is that in 44 there were Zhukov, Rokossovsky, Vasilevsky, Konev and a whole galaxy of military leaders, and Stalin and the All-Union Communist Party of Bolsheviks were at the head of the country. Today's shots don't even come close to that level...

    Really sensible and logical, the author. But why would there be such conclusions about our military leaders? Where was your galaxy along with the VKPB in the 41st and where were the Wehrmacht troops at the same time, forgot? So the comparison is inappropriate and incorrect. Do not count your chickens before they are hatched.
  6. rotkiv04 Online rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 17 March 2023 15: 58
    the Kiev bug, of course, is never a military man, and his generals are not geeks, but their advisers are quite competent, but there are also many questions about our commanders and they also do not shine with their minds, although all the heroes of Russia graduated from the academy
    1. Constantine N Offline Constantine N
      Constantine N (Constantin N) 18 March 2023 06: 03
      The ideal plan for VSU is most likely this for a breakthrough in one place:
      planning bombs (like a jam) will hit the fortifications with all their might.
      hymers, etc. will beat on logistics.
      cover the artillery with a cloud of drones.
      patriot and other modern air defense systems will not allow aviation to work.
      modern long-range artillery with accurate shells to hit the front line / trenches.
      and armored vehicles will go under the cover of all this.
      and the infantry will be fixed in places of breakthrough.
      Since soldiers and equipment will not be spared, everything will happen rapidly.
      and after all, unannounced weapons will be transferred ...
  7. Vera D Offline Vera D
    Vera D (Vera D) 17 March 2023 17: 55
    Author, you -. Instead of serious work, it turned out to be a fairy tale about the "imperfections" of which. Due to an oversight, they have not yet been put in a cage.
    I especially liked that 60 people were ready for the offensive. Although, it has been said more than once that for a strike, they have at least: 000 (in the Zaporozhye region).
    Again with armored vehicles, they say that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will receive: 700 "leopards" + about 400 Soviet tanks and their modifications, like Polish tanks, they already have. Such figures often flash here and on topvar
  8. calligrapher Lev_Nikolaevich (Dmitriy) 17 March 2023 23: 45
    In a month, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will have the opportunity to actively move, by the day of victory (according to European tradition) they will build a heroic battle with a victory that will inspire them, but will not allow the front to advance.
    By the beginning of June, the Wagner PMC will force them to run, and by the end of the month, the rest of the RF Armed Forces will join this process.
  9. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 18 March 2023 00: 20
    the only real chance for anything close to success in a hard offensive is speed. It is the presence of hundreds, and even a couple of thousand different armored vehicles, armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles and tanks tied to a control system and with access to intelligence in real time, that gives the Kiev regime hope for a miracle.

    The speed, not only of the units themselves, but also of decision-making, command and control, all this together is quite a serious threat, because. the enemy has the ability to generate contact battles with a clear numerical and material superiority, can bypass too large forces, can slip between too slow forces, can, with proper management, reduce the overall balance of forces in his favor.

    But for speed you need space, this is only in the south. In the urbanized Donbass, you can’t really accelerate, although of course this is conditional, a swift offensive is also possible here.

    Obviously, the main burden for the Russian troops will lie on countering armored targets in contact combat. ATGM will not be enough here. 20mm, 30, 57 and higher rapid-fire cannons, as well as 14,5, 12,7 mm machine guns, these will be the main means to destroy quite numerous armored targets.

    Unfortunately, in contact combat with these targets, we do not have an advantage, there are the same 20, 30 mm and perfect aiming systems, ammunition is also on the level.

    But there is hope for our tanks. Our tanks are the most suitable tool to slow down enemy armored groups, which will make it easier to destroy them with artillery. Tanks are also better than others will be able to hit these targets in contact combat. Therefore, even the T-62s are needed by the front, and the T-55s would be useful.

    Unfortunately, with the usual means of infantry, like ATGMs and RPGs, it will not be easy to stop the rapid attacks of enemy armored groups. Too many armored cars, various bricks, mraps, etc. Infantry in positions here will be powerless in open space.

    This is a battle of technology against technology, the speed of control, the speed of artillery fire control, the work of aviation. Infantry battles are here only if in urban areas.

    We have enough equipment in total, but how can we manage to create sufficiency where the enemy will advance? How to manage to direct enough equipment to where it is needed during the battle? This will be a challenge, because the enemy will be fine with these decisions (unless we turn off their control system).
    1. calligrapher Lev_Nikolaevich (Dmitriy) 18 March 2023 10: 39
      But for speed you need space, this is only in the south. In the urbanized Donbass, you can’t really accelerate, although of course this is conditional, a swift offensive is also possible here.

      Given that opposing tanks are easier to hide and move in urban areas, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will most likely choose to develop an offensive in the south, and to divert forces around the buildings in the north, where there is no continuous belt of settlements.
    2. Paul3390 Offline Paul3390
      Paul3390 (Paul) 18 March 2023 11: 00
      the real chance for something akin to the success of a covert offensive is speed. It is the presence of hundreds, and even a couple of thousand different armored vehicles

      In addition, we must not forget about the state of technology. How dead she is. This directly affects its use. Apparently, the ukrozoo park is not sickly, which means it won’t last long. Thus - the only chance is a throw with the whole mass for the shortest possible distance. Even if 10% reaches the goal, this is already a victory. And there are only two such directions - either in the south to the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, or in the north - to Bryansk or Belgorod ..
  10. 1_2 Offline 1_2
    1_2 (Ducks are flying) 18 March 2023 10: 58
    if there is a wedge somewhere, then this wedge must be enclosed in a ring
  11. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 19 March 2023 00: 39
    assuming that the UAF will advance to the south, open spaces, how realistic is the option for the next defense strategy?

    - Powerful defense nodes are being created, the purpose of which is to cover artillery deployment areas

    - All important settlements are saturated with infantry units to the eyeballs in order to force the enemy to allocate a lot of forces for the assault on settlements. Garrisons are allocated from reserves (mobilized) and occupy cities and towns as close as possible to the start of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

    - The space between the defense nodes (and artillery) does not have defense positions at all (so as not to listen on the radio "we are surrounded, help"). Instead of positions, it is saturated with highly mobile groups, detachments, etc., the purpose of which is to set up ambushes, engage in battle at your own discretion, direct artillery and VKS, and in every possible way contain what is possible.

    - Of all the strike forces, one large strike force is created, for which an offensive plan is developed in advance from the concentration area to a certain point on the front line before the start of the Ukrainian offensive (to cut off everything that has advanced deep into our territory). This strike force is dispersed in parts before the start of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, in order to complicate the assessment of forces and intentions. The grouping is concentrated at the starting point of the counteroffensive and moves according to the planned plan. VKS, intelligence, all resources support this grouping.

    The enemy, whose forces are scattered in the offensive area, some are trying to cling to city buildings, some are covering the flanks of strike groups, some are in reserve, the Russian offensive with one powerful strike force will force them to make a decision - either to engage in battle against one powerful rink, which is supported by the Aerospace Forces and artillery , separate forces or try to group up to repel the Russian counteroffensive. And both are good for us. Either the enemy forces will be destroyed in parts, or they will gather all together and be defeated at once.

    The bottom line is that when one big fist comes, the superiority of the enemy in intelligence and control will no longer be so important. We will have to advance on the territory that is now under us, no mines, everything is known and transparent, observers and tracking equipment are everywhere.

    To impose on the enemy battles against one strike force (which is moving towards the goal of cutting off everyone and everything), against the concentration of airborne forces and artillery, at the moment when the enemy himself advances, his forces are scattered, tied up in various positions, storming towns and villages, possibly storming defense nodes etc..

    The risk is that the enemy will go deep and everything will depend on the counteroffensive. The downside is that the enemy will cover the distance quickly and will be exposed to artillery strikes less time, will not get stuck here and there under artillery strikes.
    1. calligrapher Lev_Nikolaevich (Dmitriy) 19 March 2023 20: 15
      If we take defense tactics, then this proposal looks like a tracing paper from the tactics of the Armed Forces of Ukraine a year ago. It might work. The main thing is that there should be good awareness of the coordinates of the attacking forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and the security of artillery units capable of working on them.