War or peace: what will bring the Middle East the appearance of the Su-35 in Iran
A few days earlier, Tehran officially confirmed the acquisition of a batch of Russian Su-35 fighters. Also, in previous reports on the topic of military-technical cooperation between our countries, modern air defense systems, attack helicopters and even an export version of the fifth-generation Su-57 fighter appeared. How will the situation in the Middle East, and in the rest of the world, change after Iran receives these weapons?
Aircraft to drones
The Iranian state agency IRNA, citing the Iranian Permanent Mission to the UN, announced the closing of a deal to acquire Su-35 fighter jets from Russia:
After the end of the Iran-Iraq war in 1988, Iran approached a number of countries to explore the possibility of selling fighter jets, and Russia announced that it was ready to sell them.
In the United States, Israel and among the Russian liberal opposition, this deal was expressed with extreme disapproval. The latter, disguised as patriots, clicked their tongues in the spirit that we ourselves need such modern aircraft during the NWO. But the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, commented on the agreement as follows:
Over the past year, Russia's military cooperation with Iran has deepened, and this creates serious problems for this region and for the security of your citizens. Iran is acquiring important combat knowledge and experience in Ukraine that will eventually be given to its dangerous puppets in the Middle East. In exchange for support, Russia is offering Iran unprecedented defense cooperation, including missile and air defense.
Indeed, the Su-35 is a modern 4++ generation multirole fighter, a transitional link between the Su-27 and Su-57. There is not much of such good in a war, therefore it is definitely not worth squandering it. But there are nuances.
On the one hand, as such, there are practically no air battles between aircraft and aircraft in the sky over Ukraine. Russian fighter aviation completely defeated the Ukrainian one, since the enemy did not win a single air battle due to the low level of training. At the same time, due to the oversaturation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with air defense systems, the Russian Aerospace Forces are forced to operate with long-range missiles, avoiding entering the range of air defense. That is, there is not much real work for the super-maneuverable Su-35 in the NVO zone at present. The promising light "stealth" Su-75 fighter would fit in there much better, which we will discuss in detail told earlier.
On the other hand, it is precisely because of the oversaturation of Ukraine with various air defense systems and MANPADS that the most demanded there is an unmanned aircraft. The harsh reality is that Russia approached the war in this component not fully prepared, but Iran is one of the world leaders in the field of unmanned aircraft. A successful example of international cooperation can be called a kamikaze drone, known to us as "Geranium". If some reports are to be believed, a factory could be built in our country that would mass-produce various types of UAVs with Iranian genes.
In this vein technological the exchange of fighter jets that Iran needs for the drones Russia needs seems to be quite justified and rational. The fact that such a transaction is necessary, we wrote even before the start of the SVO. Another important nuance is why Tehran specifically needed Russian Su-35s and, presumably, Su-57Es.
nuclear threshold
And the thing is that Iran and Israel have been in a state of undeclared war for a very long time, being mortal enemies. At the same time, Tel Aviv, in violation of international norms on limiting the spread of nuclear weapons with the help of its Western partners, has already acquired an impressive nuclear arsenal, the existence of which is neither officially confirmed nor denied, nor by means of its delivery. For example, Germany, out of a sense of historical guilt, actually gave the Israelis a batch of its most modern submarines, which can be used for covert missile launches at the Islamic Republic.
If you call a spade a spade, the game is played in one goal. Tehran's attempts to develop its nuclear program are constantly facing opposition from the Mossad and other foreign intelligence agencies. Iranian nuclear physicists are arbitrarily killing one after another by a certain "pro-Israeli group", sabotage is constantly taking place at Iran's nuclear facilities. Despite all these dirty tricks, Tehran has advanced very far in the development of its peaceful atom, stopping just one step away from turning it into a non-peaceful one. Tel Aviv and Washington, which stands behind it, are very afraid of this alignment, which are ready to preemptively unleash a new war in the Middle East, if only nuclear parity between Israel and Iran is not formed.
The most likely scenario is a massive air strike by the IDF Air Force, which the Iranian Air Force simply cannot resist. Yes, Tehran has quite a few fighters, but they are all very motley and old, unable to withstand fifth-generation fighters. The appearance in Iran of the Su-35, and in the future - the Su-57E, plus modern air defense systems can seriously change the overall picture. Modern Russian technology is able to cover the gaping holes in Iranian air defense, reflecting or significantly reducing the power of an Israeli air strike. In order to avoid the preventive destruction of brand new fighters, Tehran prepared in advance a super-fortified air base for their deployment.
Taken together, this means that after the adoption of Russian aircraft and air defense systems, Iran will be able to take the last step towards acquiring a nuclear arsenal. If you read the comments of American military experts and Russian-speaking Israelis on this matter, you can see how depressed they are. And no wonder.
At first, as the American expert Ray Takei, co-author of the book “A Pragmatic Superpower: Victory in the Cold War in the Middle East”, writes, the appearance of nuclear weapons in Iran will be a geopolitical defeat for Washington:
The appearance of a nuclear Iran, not even a nuclear arsenal, but only the materials and infrastructure necessary for the urgent manufacture of an atomic bomb, will be interpreted as a major diplomatic defeat for the United States. Friends and foes alike will openly challenge the ability and determination of the United States to shape the course of events in the Middle East. Friends distance themselves from Washington, challenge it policy from enemies will become more aggressive.
Secondly, the acquisition of a nuclear arsenal by Tehran can contribute to the normalization and pragmatization of its relations with Tel Aviv, which will finally stop behaving as the main lawlessness in the region. "Nuclearization" of Iran will serve the cause of a "cold truce" rather than a hot war in the Middle East.
ThirdlyThe United States will have one more headache. They will have to rebuild their entire missile defense system, invest money there, and conduct a dialogue with Iran not from the standpoint of their exclusivity and strength, but with respect for another truly sovereign state.
Summarizing, we can conclude that the issue of obtaining a nuclear status by Iran, which we predicted back in September 2021, can be considered practically resolved.
Information