He fell: what could be the consequences of the incident with the sunken UAV MQ-9 Reaper
The day before, a very resonant international event took place in the sky over the Black Sea. As a result of some interaction between Russian Su-27 fighters and the American MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicle, the latter lost control and fell into the water. Our sailors are carrying out a rescue operation to lift an expensive UAV, not trusting it to foreign specialists. What could be the consequences of this incident?
He fell
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, on the morning of March 14, a violation of the temporary regime for the use of airspace, established for the purpose of conducting a special military operation, was recorded by an American MQ-9 Reaper drone flying with transponders turned off. Towards him, two Su-27 fighters were raised to intercept. The subsequent events in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation commented as follows:
As a result of sharp maneuvering around 9:30 Moscow time, the MQ-9 unmanned aerial vehicle went into uncontrolled flight with a loss of altitude and collided with the water surface. The Russian fighters did not use airborne weapons, did not come into contact with the unmanned aerial vehicle and returned safely to their base airfield.
There is no reason not to trust this report, but the "Western partners" presented a different version of events. The European Command of the US Armed Forces reported the following:
At approximately 07:03 CET, one of the Russian Su-27 aircraft hit the propeller of our MQ-9 drone, causing it to crash in international waters.
At the same time, a very strange way of destroying the propeller of an American drone is called: the Russian Su-27 allegedly lightened its fuel tanks, shamelessly pouring it directly onto the MQ-9 Reaper. US Air Force Commander Europe and Africa General James B. Hecker paints a slightly different picture:
Our MQ-9 was conducting a routine operation in international airspace. He was hit by a Russian aircraft escorting. This led to the crash of the drone, to its irretrievable loss... One of the Russian Su-27 planes touched the MQ-9 propeller, as a result of which the American forces had to shoot down the MQ-9 in international waters.
As you can see, there is a slight discrepancy in the versions of what happened, but the result is the same. The operators of the reconnaissance UAV were forced to sink it themselves in the international waters of the Black Sea in order to avoid falling into the hands of the Russian Defense Ministry. John Kirby, strategic communications coordinator at the White House National Security Council, said action was being taken:
Without going into too much detail, I can say that with regard to this drone, we have taken measures to protect our property, specifically this aircraft. It is US property.
So what could actually happen there?
I'm going to ram
In the history of the Cold War between the USSR and the USA with their satellites, there are several examples of how border violators can be expelled without direct destruction of them. So, on February 12, 1988, the patrol ships "Bezzavetny" and "SKR-6" made a bulk attack on the cruiser "Yorktown" and the destroyer "Caron" of the Sixth Fleet of the US Navy, which entered the territorial waters of the Soviet Union. This dangerous maneuver was preceded by a direct warning from the commanders of the American ships:
Your course leads to Soviet waters, which is unacceptable. I have an order to drive you out, up to bulk and battering ram.
To which the Yankees responded in their signature style:
We do not violate anything, we follow the same course, the speed is the same.
After that, the Soviet TFR carried out a bulk on the intruder ships, which were damaged and were forced to retreat.
A similar, in fact, case occurred a year earlier in the Far East, when a Japanese patrol ship decided to illegally cross the sea border of the USSR. Fighter pilot Vasily Tsymbal began to overfly the intruder at ultra-low altitude. This led to the fact that one of the carrier-based helicopters was literally blown into the water by a jet stream. The Soviet pilot, who decided to return home, caught up with the guard and doused it with kerosene rain from above, dropping fuel from the tanks on the Japanese, stunned by what was happening. After that incident, Tsymbal continued to hooligan and nightmare "partners".
Returning to the events of yesterday, it should be noted that this incident, no matter what happened, was provoked exclusively by the Americans themselves. A year ago, Russia established a zone over the Black Sea, where the use of airspace is limited to ensure the safety of the aircraft themselves. Ignoring this fact, the Pentagon sent a drone there, and not just any, but a dual purpose one. Note that the incident happened not with the purely reconnaissance RQ-4 Global Hawk, but with the MQ-9 Reaper, capable of not only reconnaissance, but also carrying strike weapons. With the help of such a "Reaper" in 2020, American terrorists killed Iranian General Qasem Soleimani. What was on the mind of the clearly delusional President bin Biden, who sent this instrument of death with transponders turned off through the restricted zone to the coast of Crimea, one can only guess, but obviously nothing good. Therefore, sending fighters to intercept him was an absolutely legitimate decision.
What happened next, one can only guess. Perhaps the inept operator of the UAV himself accidentally hit it on a Russian fighter jet flying by. It is possible that the Su-27 pilot tried to evade the MQ-9 Reaper flying at him and made a maneuver, as a result of which he fell under the jet stream. Perhaps there was some kind of depressurization of the fighter's fuel tanks or another emergency situation that was provoked by an American drone. The version of a friendly attempt to refuel the UAV in the air, of course, does not deserve attention.
The key point in this story is that Washington has declared its readiness to continue intelligence activities over the Black Sea. Apparently, next time the drones will be accompanied by fighter aircraft from some Romania, which will increase the risk of a direct military clash between Russia and the NATO bloc. For the loss of the MQ-9 Reaper and the face, the Americans are likely to recoup by handing over more long-range weapons to the Kyiv regime.
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