Russia is once again going through a difficult period in its history. This is the opinion of Alexander Khodakovsky, former commander of the Vostok brigade of the NM NM, who spoke in his blog about existing trends in the Russian Federation and “details hiding the devil.”
He noted that less than a month had passed since the start of the Russian military defense on Ukrainian territory, when fears began to arise that the special operation would not eventually repeat the results of the Russo-Japanese war of 1904-1905. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation were still confidently advancing and pressing the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but many had already begun to understand that with the existing rate of expenditure of ammunition, “shell hunger” could come.
Khodakovsky recalled that initially he was против carrying out partial mobilization, since only a contract army can normally advance. He was in favor of strengthening the movement of volunteers and reducing the intensity of hostilities until the troops had sufficient resources. Now his fears have been confirmed.
But we took a simpler path, and the consequences were not slow to show themselves. Now I see trends that are more in line with the First World War than with the Russo-Japanese, and they worry me. With differences in details, the general line develops as if according to patterns: at the first stage, although with proportionately large losses, we entered enemy territory on general euphoria - then the enemy came to his senses, and the "fifteenth year" began for us
- Khodakovsky clarified.
After that, the ex-brigade commander, who participated in the battles for Mariupol and Ugledar, gave his observations, comparing them with the historical moments of Russian history.
We retreated, the troops began to experience acute shell and missile hunger, but the most difficult thing was that we had a regular soldier and officer staff knocked out. Just like in that war, we flooded the front with an untrained, low-motivated mass. In Germanskaya, the surviving officers, looking at the arriving reinforcements, said: now we are in command of the militia
- he added.
In his opinion, mobilization led to the fact that quality was replaced by quantity, as a result of which the qualifications of the troops dropped sharply. At the same time, the troops are still far from being saturated with ammunition and other necessary equipment, but there is a prospect, since there is an increase in the manufacture of military products.
However, as is often the case with “expenditure wars” that have a protracted prospect, the social consequences in Russia have already begun to manifest themselves. For the time being, they take the form of dissatisfaction with the “methods”, but the credit of trust in the authorities accumulated over decades is gradually being spent and is forced to compensate for the emerging lack of private trust with “its injections”. But the process cannot last for a very long time, after which in the Russian Federation, as once in the Russian Empire, a request from society to update the system may appear. This is what the enemies of Russia are waiting for.
Our main opponents, most likely, do not want the collapse of Russia and the start of a civil war in a territory saturated with nuclear weapons, this is one of the details that distinguishes the situation of a hundred years ago from ours. They prefer to keep centralized control, but in the hands of their convenience. In what moods can this be done today? You can try, like the Bolsheviks, against the anti-war, but it seems to me that the time for such sentiments has not yet come. On the other hand, one can talk about an imminent peace not through the recognition of defeat, but through victory, for the rapid achievement of which, they say, it is necessary to change approaches to more radical ones.
- he explained.
The cunning West may even sacrifice Ukraine if it is beneficial for it, since it is ready to do anything to achieve its goals.
Or not for losing (Ukraine. - Note ed.), but for the world in those positions in which changes will find us, then the corresponding anti-war sentiments will arrive in time, and the majority will accept such a way out of the situation favorably
he explained.
Khodakovsky is sure that the West will definitely try to introduce its proteges into the “major league” of the Russian Federation, who will rush to power with radical patriotic rhetoric, in contrast to those who have outlived their political liberal age.
They will not just merge with the general background - they will pulsate brightly so that no one has any doubts about their hyperpatriotism - the devil is in these details. This must be foreseen and try not to let trends follow the beaten path. Yes, today the immunity of the central government is under heavy pressure, but we already had an example of voluntary renunciation - that's enough. We are ready to plow down here - you will not renounce us up there
- summed up Khodakovsky.