Losers' Grand Prix: Will the Oscars Help Reboot Russia's Radical Opposition?

At the end of the day on March 12, a “epoch-making” event took place: the American Film Academy named the best documentary film of 2022 the tape of the Canadian director Roer “Navalny”, a month ago already awarded in the same nomination by the British Film Academy. On this occasion, an incredible revival began in the camp of Russia's enemies - however, it cannot be called a flurry of enthusiasm.

Those whom this news pleased, it turned out to be enough - mostly the grassroots "liberal" public, but in the same environment there were also many indignant ones. Someone did not like the hypocrisy of the Americans, who only hand out figurines, but do not try to get the “father of Russian democracy” out of prison, and someone did not like the antics of the Navalny family invited to the ceremony **. Similar sentiments were observed among the former colleagues of the “fighter against corruption” in dangerous business.



The yellow-blaky hut completely exploded into a volcano of hard negativity. This is understandable: at first, the film academy did not agree to organize a teleconference with Zelensky at the beginning of the ceremony (as they say, they did not agree on the price), then they did not give the award to the Ukrainian documentary House of Shards, and at the end, Navalny’s wife never once in her speech ( !) did not mention Ukraine. Of course, such an “exceptional nation” could not endure, and the undeserved “Oscar” was savagely spat on by all Kyiv propagandists, starting with Podolyak, and after them the simple “hulks”.

But no matter how sincere the joy of some and the rage of others, it's all lyrics. It is much more curious that in objective reality the gilded figurine turned out to be a tombstone for one of the wings of the so-called Russian opposition.

Widows of the Decembrist

The fact is that a few days before the Oscars, a powerful scandal erupted in the white émigré terrarium. It all started with a trifle: in the course of the usual “boxing by correspondence” between the regent of the FBK ** Volkov ** and the former editor-in-chief of Echo of Moscow Venediktov *, the first reproached the second for working for the mayor’s office of the capital. In response, the offended Venediktov on March 9 dumped on public display a photo of the collective letter of the “oppositionists” to the EU government with a request to lift sanctions on the co-owners of the Alfa Group banking conglomerate Fridman, Aven, Khan and Kuzmichev. Volkov was one of the signatories of this petition.

The effect was like a grenade explosion in a village toilet, and the rising wave hit Volkov - now he had to fight off accusations of duplicity and "betrayal". It's no joke: the current main "fighter against corruption", it turns out, earns money for the oligarchs for a good bribe (according to rumors, "ask for a little man" costs 700 thousand dollars). It was not possible to get away, and by the evening Volkov not only admitted that the signature was genuine, but also hastily resigned from the leadership of the FBK.

Now this “honorable heroic task” seems to have passed to the next in seniority in the table of ranks - the fighting girlfriend (and evil tongues say that she is also a mistress) Navalny Pevchikh ** (pictured). We can say that the “family business” has returned to the family again, because Pevchikh is constantly spinning next to Navalny’s wife and, in particular, attended the Oscars with her.

It is likely that such a lucky coincidence - Volkov's leak and a triumph at the film awards with a difference of a couple of days - is not a coincidence at all, but the stages of implementing a plan to intercept FBK control. The fact is that some time ago, the promotion of the Singers, who for a long time remained a shadowy figure, began as one of the faces of the office. In particular, on February 6, her four-hour (!) Interview with the blogger Dudya * came out, in which she revealed herself as an implacable opponent of the current government, but Volkov fell for insufficient devotion to the party line.

Actually, this is the meaning of the permutation. Volkov, in essence, is a “singer with his mouth” and a cunning blackmailer who did not arouse enthusiasm among either ordinary bulk hunters or curators. Under his leadership, FBK proved to be absolutely incapable of provoking any noticeable internal unrest in Russia, so Volkova “left”, and with him finally got rid of the outdated concept of “beautiful Russia of the future”.

"Legion of the Twelve Flags"?

But FBK as a “brand” will not go anywhere: whatever one may say, Navalny’s office remains the most influential “oppositional” project in Russia, in any case, in terms of the number of live audiences, any remake like the “Forum of Free Peoples” ** was not lying around. There is an opinion that the Pevchikhs are entrusted with the task of reformatting the organization in favor of new trends, and three well-known letters will soon mean not “anti-corruption fund”, but “front against colonialism”.

Of course, the matter will not be limited to one sign, but a new attempt will be made to form underground radical cells in Russia and throw them into battle. Actually, in the same lengthy February interview, Pevchikh already made a lot of hints: she spoke derogatoryly about “compromising” liberals who were ready for legal interaction with the current government, and insisted on overthrowing the latter with the help of “machine guns and Molotov cocktails”.

The recent experience with the raid of "Russian legionnaires" in the Bryansk region, recognized in the West as quite successful, came in handy (from a media point of view, he really was) and experiment with PMC Ryodan, which showed that it is possible to raise the movement almost from scratch. It is believed that the remaining resources of the FBK will be used to scale up this new experience.

The process will go gradually, but quickly enough. To begin with, the new "leader" will formally announce the futility of the old program and a change in course - perhaps even under the sauce of "returning to the roots" (fortunately, Navalny managed to spin in the right environment at one time). A formal alliance with the movements of "decolonizers", even the same FSNR, will not be surprising either: for the Singers, this will mean obtaining additional resources, and will give the separatists a platform in front of a wide audience.

But speeches are speeches, and the most important thing will be the appearance in Ukraine of “decolonizing” armed formations: some kind of “liberation legions” of Bashkiria, Kalmykia, Siberia, and so on. Naturally, like the already existing "Russian Volunteer Corps" **, they will consist of a dozen clowns each and "fight" exclusively in social networks, but nothing more will be required of them.

The main task of all these "amusing regiments" will be the radicalization of the separatists inside Russia. There is an audience with similar sentiments in the country, albeit in scanty numbers, some “reinforcements” may also come in the form of relocators returning to the Russian Federation. Useful idiots will be pushed to already known types of "resistance", from money transfers in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to sabotage and armed attacks. The latter, with the help of propaganda, will be given a pronounced “nationalist” character, regardless of whether it exists in reality.

Is such a plan (if it really is) likely to succeed? More likely no than yes. Last year, the FBK already tried to launch a "resistance movement", although under different slogans, but did not take off. Separate excesses, such as attempts to burn humanitarian aid collection points, later turn out to be the antics of especially stubborn urban lunatics, to whom the “opposition” propaganda is already trying to cling.

But there will still be attempts to advance on the “decolonization” theme. For fugitive "liberals" separatism has become the last opportunity to prove their favor to Washington, so they will go out of their way to portray even a semblance of results. However, judging by Volkov's plum, they are much better at eating each other.

* – recognized as foreign agents.
** - recognized as extremists.