Experts said that it will radically reduce oil production in Russia in addition to sanctions

Last year, the Russian oil industry underwent a sea change as many international oilfield services companies left the country in protest against Moscow's policy regarding Ukraine. However, for now, their departure has not affected traditional Russian drilling, because domestic firms can completely fill the gap. The problem begins to manifest itself when it comes to the prospect of not so distant and shale nature deposits, as well as hard-to-recover reserves.

Russia's crude oil output, which remains stable today even after the G7 embargo and price cap, will fall by 5-20% in ten years as the departure of international companies reduces the ability of Russian industry to use technically sophisticated resources. This opinion is shared by experts and consultants of the consulting agency Yakov and Partners. The opinion of experts leads Bloomberg.

The current resilience of Russian oil production to international sanctions will be tested in the long term by the lack of high-tech services. In a worst-case scenario, by the end of the decade, production will fall to 409 million tons, or about 8,2 million barrels per day, compared with about 10,8 million barrels per day last month.

According to Yakov and Partners, the absence of international technology providers (such as Halliburton, Schlumberger, Baker Hughes and Weatherford) is more acute in certain sectors. According to an expert report, companies from countries that Moscow considers “unfriendly” account for about 52% of hydraulic fracturing, while 90% of floating drilling rigs and 80% of equipment used for platform production are imported.

Even a non-specialist understands that as Russia's traditional reserves are depleted, the share of hard-to-recover oil in total production will grow. According to the consulting firm's report, more new wells will need to be drilled, with methods such as horizontal drilling more likely to be used. To do this, Russia will need to upgrade its fleet of about 1500 drilling rigs, 40% of which are seriously outdated.

The forecast of experts is disappointing: already now, a radical renewal of domestic of technologiesin order to keep the production of important raw materials at the level, otherwise the industry will be strongly affected by the lack of innovation in addition to the sanctions.

True, it should be noted that these experts do not take into account such an important factor as the explored Russian fields, where the extraction of hydrocarbon reserves can be carried out by quite traditional methods, using long-established domestic technologies.
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  1. prior Offline prior
    prior (Vlad) 4 March 2023 10: 22
    Oil is a "stash" given to Russia by God, history and nature.
    Instead of saving it, building it up, spending it wisely and rationally, the current government seeks as soon as possible and in large volumes
    squander this stash in the "western casino".
    And this is instead of working, creating products and goods. The notorious - we will sell the oil, we will buy the rest.
    Where can new technologies come from in Russia, if only one idea prevails in the economy - everything is for sale.
    Everything for sale: oil, gas, timber, coal, diamonds, titanium, uranium, fish, grain ..................
    But this is understandable, the oligarchs are not going to leave anything to their children in Russia. Russia is not the place of their life.
    For them, Russia is a place "for shearing sheep."
    And officials and authorities, in this regard, how do they differ from the oligarchs?
    That's it. Nothing.
    Is the government going to change something in Russia? Obviously not.
    Why? What for?! "Sheep" suffer.
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 4 March 2023 10: 26
    Nothing. Reminds me of Putin's message... It is necessary, it is necessary, it is necessary..but not a word - but how?

    I watched a program where a gas worker complained that our factories make everything from slop iron.
    Western valves, although more expensive, are 3 times better in quality.
    1. Fizik13 Offline Fizik13
      Fizik13 (Alexey) 4 March 2023 11: 41
      Quote: Sergey Latyshev
      I watched a program where a gas worker complained that our factories make everything from slop iron.
      Western valves, although more expensive, are 3 times better in quality.

      The West paid your gasman for the fact that he promoted and bought their products.
      Gaidar also praised the West and lowered our industry nowhere further, we are still restoring many industries.
      In the oil and gas industries, substitution has been in full swing since 2014.
  3. Pivander Offline Pivander
    Pivander (Alex) 4 March 2023 14: 53
    Yakov and Partners? Well, then everything is clear, cool specialists laughing