Putin materialized the worst-case scenario for the United States - Russia begins a "nuclear race"

So, the promised continuation. Those who do not like long texts can start reading from this place, but I still advise you to start with start (it will be both more interesting and clearer, believe me, this is a single string of events that were strung on top of each other and followed one after another). So let's go.

Verbal Interventions

As I expected, Putin's February 21 speech to the Federal Assembly did not introduce anything fundamentally new (with the exception of one small thing, which will be discussed below). It even seemed to many that the mountain once again gave birth to a mouse, but this is exactly what I expected from the mountain when писалthat it is better to do than to say. Of course, everyone was expecting more, but what exactly, they themselves did not know. The suspension of Russia’s participation in START-3, announced by Putin, was regarded by many skeptics, of course, as a strong move by the Kremlin, but which is unlikely to frighten Biden and stop him from taking further steps to escalate the conflict in Ukraine.



You can understand their logic. They proceed from the fact that Biden needs an escalation to gain a stronger negotiating position in future (towards the end of the year) peace talks according to the Korean scenario. The ultimate task of Grandpa Joe is to hang a loaded Ukrainian gun in the dressing room of the Russian Federation and quickly move to the Asia-Pacific region, where the Chinese dragon is gaining strength and maturing with his Chinese loaded gun, tying Chairman Xi with military operations in Taiwan in order to prevent him from interfering in the Ukrainian conflict, taking the side of the Russians, when by 2025 our hero (if he is still re-elected) will have the resources and BC to continue it.

It must be admitted that Biden's plan, like everything ingenious, is simple - to separate his rivals into corners, forcing them to solve (each in his own corner) the regional problems that have fallen on them in order to avoid their uniting to solve their common problem, whose name is the United States. Therefore, in order to break this plan, both Putin and Comrade. Xi needs to decide everything right now, without departing from the Ukrainian “cash desk”. This is in the interests of both. One by one, NATO and AUKUS will tear them apart. It seems that both Moscow and Beijing understand this and are taking joint steps to counteract this. At least the peace plan of Comrade. The Xi he was about to reveal to the world on Feb. 24 was far from what Biden had in mind in Ukraine. It is unlikely that Grandpa Joe will go for it, which, in fact, Beijing is counting on, because after the quite expected refusal of the hand of comrade. Si to help his friend Vladimir will be unleashed. You can be sure that this plan, even before it was written, was agreed to the last comma with the Kremlin, and the visit of the head of the office of the foreign affairs commission of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China Comrade. Wang Yi to Moscow and his meetings with Patrushev, and then with Lavrov and Putin were more aimed at an external American audience. The American and Ukrainian sides have already received copies of this document and are now scratching their heads as to what to do with it.

Hit below the belt

As for the suspension of our participation in START-3, for all the seeming insignificance of this step for some skeptics, this is the Kremlin's strongest move. Few people understand what really happened, because they are not privy to the details of the issue. And if I tell you that the first thing that Joe Biden did on January 21, 2021, having barely crossed the threshold of the Oval Office, was to notify the Kremlin of his administration’s intention to extend the START-3 Treaty (on the limitation of strategic offensive arms), which was expiring in February 2021, for another 5 years without any preconditions. Which was done six days later, on January 27, 2021. On that day, the State Duma and the Federation Council ratified the agreement between Russia and the United States on the extension of START-3 until February 5, 2026. A week later, President Putin signed the law on its extension, after which the agreement entered into force, and Grandpa Joe sighed calmly and took up other matters (what exactly, we now see).

For your information: Biden took office on January 20, 2021, and the Kremlin received a message about the White House's intention to prolong the START-3 treaty a day later, on January 21. Why such a rush, you ask me, that the newly elected US president had nothing else to do after the inauguration? The answer to this question was given by our Minister of Defense - Russia at the end of 2021 updated its nuclear triad by 92%, Shoigu publicly stated this at the expanded board of the Russian Defense Ministry (with Putin's participation) on December 21, 2021. In the United States, this figure by that time barely reached 31%. Now, let me tell you, two years later, it is not much higher - 32%. Now you understand why Grandpa Joe was confused and rushed to rewrite his speech prepared in advance for the Poles? Putin finished speaking to the Federal Assembly at 13:55 Moscow time, Grandpa Joe's speech to the Polish gentry was scheduled for 17:30 CET. The White House court speechwriters had plenty to do during those three hours.

For those who did not understand what happened, I will explain on my fingers - the villain Putin overturned the entire chess table that Grandpa Joe was building with one easy movement of his foot, and he did it at the end of his speech, without changing his facial expression and without raising his voice when Grandpa Joe, who listened to him through a simultaneous interpreter, even began to fall asleep. Putin, in his traditional manner, asymmetrically turned the situation around 180 degrees in one move, mixing up all the pieces on the table that our American chess fan had carefully placed all year before. Where is this horse - Poland or its Romanian black counterpart, two rooks - Germany and France, the English queen, Swedish and Finnish bishops? About the Baltic, Bulgarian, Czech, Slovak and other pawns, I don’t even ask - they are no more, they are all lying under the table. Just as there is no Ukraine, which was not even a pawn, but dust on this board. Everything has gone to waste!

Who has not yet understood this, and expected from Putin downed American satellites and thermonuclear explosions in the atmosphere or in the depths of the sea? None of this will happen! Putin simply politely and delicately announced Russia's withdrawal from START-3 and the start of a nuclear arms race, turning the hot war in Ukraine into a cold one, where Russia currently has a three-fold (!) advantage. And although polite Putin called this the suspension of Russia's participation in START-3, the whole point is that the treaty itself does not provide for this. Legally, it is drafted in such a way that either party can withdraw from it by giving the other party at least three months' notice. There is no other option for its rupture (and even more so for suspension) in the contract. Сonclusion: Washington has exactly three months to negotiate with Moscow. Time has passed since the announcement of this statement by the Kremlin, i.е. from 21 February.

Required clarifications for the American side

On the same day, the Russian Foreign Ministry published an explanation of the Russian position. It follows from it that Moscow will continue to comply with quantitative restrictions on strategic offensive arms. The department stressed that the decision to suspend "may be reversible" - for this, Washington must "show political will, to make good faith efforts towards a general de-escalation". Until then, any moves by Moscow towards the United States are "absolutely out of the question," the report says, which, along with claims about the treaty, includes accusations of unleashing a "total hybrid war" against Russia. In other words, the ball is already on the side of the opponent's field, think, gentlemen, think.

Moreover, the specific conditions for Moscow's return to the treaty are not yet very clear. In his message, Putin only cited the reasons why the Russian Federation was suspending its participation in it: it was about the nuclear arsenals of Britain and France, which are not taken into account in the agreement, about the attack by Ukrainian UAVs against Russian airfields for long-range strategic aviation, and about the new complexes of the Strategic Missile Forces of the Russian Federation, delivered by on combat duty, which the United States wants to inspect, which in the conditions of hostilities, according to Moscow, is unacceptable. I draw your attention to the fact that this is an absolutely political decision, so exactly the same political decision can be made on the return of the Russian Federation to the implementation of the treaty. Another thing is that, apparently, cardinal changes in relations between our countries are also needed for this. What Washington is not ready to do yet. Well, he has time to think. Exactly three months. It is unlikely that during this time the situation in the Ukrainian theater will change radically in favor of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, given their current state, which means that Washington will have nothing to trump in response.

If during this time a political decision is not made, and Washington does not moderate its exorbitant appetites in Ukraine, then, gentlemen, welcome to a new spiral of the arms race, only nuclear, where the Russian Federation is currently three turns above the United States . The states, of course, can try to catch up with the Russian Federation in the nuclear component, but this will cost money. Not just money, but very big money, so big that there simply won't be any left for all other expenditure items of the American budget. And most importantly, it will cost time, which Grandpa Joe stupidly does not have. Until then, the Russian Federation will be able to talk to the United States from a position of strength. I'm not lying at all, I'm talking about it писал a year ago, a month before the start of the JMD (the text then gained 1,5 million views), and I absolutely do not understand why Putin did not use this lever of pressure on the United States earlier (for example, immediately after the attack of Ukrainian drones on the airfields of our nuclear strategists)? How did the United States find itself in such a situation, having launched its ground and air triad (they are all right with sea carriers of strategic nuclear forces!)? I don't know. But now this is no longer Putin's concern, but Grandpa Joe's. Was he going to defeat a great nuclear power with conventional weapons? Well, well, I have not seen anything more stupid!

We already have a reason to start a war with the USA. I mean the blowing up of international offshore gas pipelines and the attack on the airfields of our long-range strategic aviation. But Putin is in no hurry to announce it, instead he announces a nuclear arms race. Once Reagan ruined the USSR by imposing star wars on it (better known as the "Strategic Defense Initiative") and collapsing oil prices through the Saudis. Now Putin is trying to ruin the United States by imposing a nuclear arms race on it and agreeing with the same Saudis to reduce oil production, thereby playing to increase its cost. And this is at the same time that the US Strategic Crude Oil Reserve reached its lowest level in the last 40 years since 1983 (Grandpa Joe mercilessly pumped oil out of there throughout 2022, trying to keep gasoline prices - eventually held it, halving the stock). At the same time, the Russian Federation does not need to chase anywhere - its nuclear triad has already been updated by 92%. This is the disposition on DNSV-3 at the moment.

This is where I stop my story. The end follows (tomorrow). No goodbye, your Mr. Z.