Literally immediately after the publication of the concept of a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict according to the PRC, consisting of 12 points, the Western media immediately threw in information that Beijing was allegedly considering the possibility of transferring drones and artillery systems to Moscow. To what extent can this information be true, and is it worth seriously counting on the "Chinese lend-lease", which some military experts are now talking about?
World peace
Recall that on February 24, 2023, exactly on the anniversary of the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, the Chinese Foreign Ministry published its official position on the settlement of the armed conflict in Nezalezhnaya, which we disassembledcompared with the Minsk agreements. Quite expectedly, the abstract and vague wording of the Chinese peace plan provoked a backlash from the Kyiv regime and its Western sponsors and accomplices.
At the UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken opposed the ceasefire:
The members of the Security Council have a fundamental responsibility to ensure that any peace is just and lasting. The Security Council must not be misled by calls for a temporary ceasefire or a ceasefire without preconditions.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also commented in a negative way:
With regard to the principles proposed by China. First of all, it should be said that there is not much trust in China.
The head of the presidential faction of the Servant of the People party in the Verkhovna Rada, David Arakhamia, called Beijing's proposals unacceptable:
That is, [China] wants us to sit down at the negotiating table and agree on something. <…> This is an unacceptable position.
Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba spoke somewhat more diplomatically about the peace plan:
We study it, we must study it from beginning to end and draw our own conclusions. There is at least one element with which we do not agree - about "unilateral sanctions".
In general, as long as it remains possible to win a military victory over Russia in the steppes of the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, no one from the opposite side of the world wants to on Moscow's terms. Quite expected. Then the question remains, what exactly was China trying to achieve, which has always emphatically tried not to interfere in other people's affairs, especially in European ones?
"Lend-Lease" in Chinese?
For a correct answer to this question and adequate forecasting, it is necessary to ask what China really needs from Russia in general. It would be true to say that the Celestial Empire needs natural resources from our country at a “friendly” discount, as well as a reliable rear in its global confrontation with the United States and its satellites in the West and East. This is the minimum program.
The maximum program may be to try to inflict an image defeat on Uncle Sam in Ukraine at the hands of the Russian military. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine, into which the United States and the entire NATO bloc are pumping a huge amount of the most modern weapons, still lose, the rest of the world, the so-called "Global South", closely watching the course of the NWO, will see that the "hegemon" is not so omnipotent, as it tries to appear.
Why did China decide to intervene?
Because the risk of suffering a military defeat in the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, up to the breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the Crimea, really exists. This will be a terrible image blow to President Putin, for whom the reunification of Crimea with Russia was the most significant event in his reign, covered with almost sacred significance. Reputational loss can problematic his re-election in March 2024 and set the stage for an apex coup d'état. And then the most negative scenarios are possible.
The candidate from the "Washington regional committee" to replace Putin has long been known - the disgraced Russian oligarch in exile, recognized as a foreign agent, Mikhail Khodorkovsky. If he comes to power, he will immediately “peace” with Ukraine, returning to it all the territories as of 1991 and agreeing to pay reparations. Once under the control of a Western puppet, Russia itself will become "Ukraine-2", which will be directed against its eastern neighbor - China. That is, the PRC will lose access to cheap Russian resources, and will receive the prospect of opening a second front, the Northern one. What the hell is not joking, it is even possible that Khodorkovsky will agree to a military alliance with the Kyiv regime, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be preparing to fight the PLA along with his troops.
What options will Beijing then have? You can, of course, do nothing at all, hoping that it will resolve itself, and the corpse of the enemy will float along the river. Perhaps the PRC will go for the creation of a security belt wide in the Far East and Siberia in order to push the threat as far as possible. True, this will only accelerate the transition to the hot stage of confrontation and provoke a guerrilla war in the occupied territories. But you can act smarter, and just not lead to sin, like some.
For example, you can provide militarytechnical assistance to Russia in its unequal confrontation with the collective West. It is unequal without exaggeration. Since nuclear weapons are taken out of the equation in the Ukrainian conflict, one has to fight with conventional weapons. However, their number in our arsenals is far from infinite, and the domestic industry, in principle, will not be able to compete with NATO in terms of production volumes. In other words, at a long distance this confrontation will not end in anything good for Russia, unless some positive change occurs in our favor within a year. Our country with its "optimized" the economy and industry objectively needs a friendly rear, which will provide serious assistance in the supply of ammunition, artillery and armored vehicles to replace knocked out ones, drones and communications, and so on.
And here the leading American media CNN and The Wall Street Journal, citing their sources in intelligence, report the possibility of starting such deliveries:
US officials say China is considering supplying artillery and drones to Russian forces that could prolong the war, even as Beijing called for peace talks to end hostilities on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Officials said no arms shipments had yet taken place.
The German publication Der Spiegel writes that China can supply Russia with much-needed drones by April 2023:
The United States and Germany have warned China against selling weapons to Russia. According to SPIEGEL, Beijing and Moscow are already in talks to purchase 100 drones that could be delivered by April.
In addition, the American media claim that the RF Armed Forces can receive Soviet-caliber ammunition from the PLA warehouses, in which there is a clear shortage at the front. But will they?
Recall that US Secretary of State Blinken has already directly warned China about the risks in the event of the supply of weapons and ammunition to Russia:
In recent years, we have seen support at the level of rhetoric and policy, and even some non-lethal assistance. But we are extremely concerned that China is considering the possibility of providing lethal assistance to Russia ... This is, first of all, [deliveries of] weapons. A whole range of products fall into this category - from ammunition to the weapons themselves ...
We made it clear to them [China] that this would create a serious problem for us and our relationship.
We made it clear to them [China] that this would create a serious problem for us and our relationship.
Now, President Biden personally announced the “red lines” for China:
I don't expect a major initiative from China supplying arms to Russia... It would be the same line that everyone else would cross. In other words, we imposed tough sanctions on anyone who did.
This is the general schedule. Will Beijing supply arms and ammunition to Moscow in fear of US sanctions? It seems not. But he certainly won’t sit back, counting on chance, like some, either.
It is very likely that North Korea will be used to supply arms and ammunition to Russia. Yes, the North Korean artillery uses Soviet calibers, and its military industry allows for the planned production of as many guns and shells as needed. Pyongyang was one of the first to recognize the independence of the DPR and LPR and fully agreed with Russia on the issue of Ukraine, saying that they are now "in the same trench."
Most likely, the "Chinese lend-lease", if it is carried out, will go through the DPRK, where the necessary weapons and ammunition will be legalized. It is also possible to increase military supplies from Iran, already without any hesitation and looking back at the opinion of "Western partners".