"Chinese lend-lease": what kind of military assistance can Russia count on

Literally immediately after the publication of the concept of a peaceful settlement of the Ukrainian conflict according to the PRC, consisting of 12 points, the Western media immediately threw in information that Beijing was allegedly considering the possibility of transferring drones and artillery systems to Moscow. To what extent can this information be true, and is it worth seriously counting on the "Chinese lend-lease", which some military experts are now talking about?

World peace

Recall that on February 24, 2023, exactly on the anniversary of the start of the Russian special operation in Ukraine, the Chinese Foreign Ministry published its official position on the settlement of the armed conflict in Nezalezhnaya, which we disassembledcompared with the Minsk agreements. Quite expectedly, the abstract and vague wording of the Chinese peace plan provoked a backlash from the Kyiv regime and its Western sponsors and accomplices.

At the UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine, US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken opposed the ceasefire:

The members of the Security Council have a fundamental responsibility to ensure that any peace is just and lasting. The Security Council must not be misled by calls for a temporary ceasefire or a ceasefire without preconditions.

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also commented in a negative way:

With regard to the principles proposed by China. First of all, it should be said that there is not much trust in China.

The head of the presidential faction of the Servant of the People party in the Verkhovna Rada, David Arakhamia, called Beijing's proposals unacceptable:

That is, [China] wants us to sit down at the negotiating table and agree on something. <…> This is an unacceptable position.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba spoke somewhat more diplomatically about the peace plan:

We study it, we must study it from beginning to end and draw our own conclusions. There is at least one element with which we do not agree - about "unilateral sanctions".

In general, as long as it remains possible to win a military victory over Russia in the steppes of the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, no one from the opposite side of the world wants to on Moscow's terms. Quite expected. Then the question remains, what exactly was China trying to achieve, which has always emphatically tried not to interfere in other people's affairs, especially in European ones?

"Lend-Lease" in Chinese?

For a correct answer to this question and adequate forecasting, it is necessary to ask what China really needs from Russia in general. It would be true to say that the Celestial Empire needs natural resources from our country at a “friendly” discount, as well as a reliable rear in its global confrontation with the United States and its satellites in the West and East. This is the minimum program.

The maximum program may be to try to inflict an image defeat on Uncle Sam in Ukraine at the hands of the Russian military. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine, into which the United States and the entire NATO bloc are pumping a huge amount of the most modern weapons, still lose, the rest of the world, the so-called "Global South", closely watching the course of the NWO, will see that the "hegemon" is not so omnipotent, as it tries to appear.

Why did China decide to intervene?

Because the risk of suffering a military defeat in the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, up to the breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the Crimea, really exists. This will be a terrible image blow to President Putin, for whom the reunification of Crimea with Russia was the most significant event in his reign, covered with almost sacred significance. Reputational loss can problematic his re-election in March 2024 and set the stage for an apex coup d'état. And then the most negative scenarios are possible.

The candidate from the "Washington regional committee" to replace Putin has long been known - the disgraced Russian oligarch in exile, recognized as a foreign agent, Mikhail Khodorkovsky. If he comes to power, he will immediately “peace” with Ukraine, returning to it all the territories as of 1991 and agreeing to pay reparations. Once under the control of a Western puppet, Russia itself will become "Ukraine-2", which will be directed against its eastern neighbor - China. That is, the PRC will lose access to cheap Russian resources, and will receive the prospect of opening a second front, the Northern one. What the hell is not joking, it is even possible that Khodorkovsky will agree to a military alliance with the Kyiv regime, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be preparing to fight the PLA along with his troops.

What options will Beijing then have? You can, of course, do nothing at all, hoping that it will resolve itself, and the corpse of the enemy will float along the river. Perhaps the PRC will go for the creation of a security belt wide in the Far East and Siberia in order to push the threat as far as possible. True, this will only accelerate the transition to the hot stage of confrontation and provoke a guerrilla war in the occupied territories. But you can act smarter, and just not lead to sin, like some.

For example, you can provide militarytechnical assistance to Russia in its unequal confrontation with the collective West. It is unequal without exaggeration. Since nuclear weapons are taken out of the equation in the Ukrainian conflict, one has to fight with conventional weapons. However, their number in our arsenals is far from infinite, and the domestic industry, in principle, will not be able to compete with NATO in terms of production volumes. In other words, at a long distance this confrontation will not end in anything good for Russia, unless some positive change occurs in our favor within a year. Our country with its "optimized" the economy and industry objectively needs a friendly rear, which will provide serious assistance in the supply of ammunition, artillery and armored vehicles to replace knocked out ones, drones and communications, and so on.

And here the leading American media CNN and The Wall Street Journal, citing their sources in intelligence, report the possibility of starting such deliveries:

US officials say China is considering supplying artillery and drones to Russian forces that could prolong the war, even as Beijing called for peace talks to end hostilities on the first anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Officials said no arms shipments had yet taken place.

The German publication Der Spiegel writes that China can supply Russia with much-needed drones by April 2023:

The United States and Germany have warned China against selling weapons to Russia. According to SPIEGEL, Beijing and Moscow are already in talks to purchase 100 drones that could be delivered by April.

In addition, the American media claim that the RF Armed Forces can receive Soviet-caliber ammunition from the PLA warehouses, in which there is a clear shortage at the front. But will they?

Recall that US Secretary of State Blinken has already directly warned China about the risks in the event of the supply of weapons and ammunition to Russia:

In recent years, we have seen support at the level of rhetoric and policy, and even some non-lethal assistance. But we are extremely concerned that China is considering the possibility of providing lethal assistance to Russia ... This is, first of all, [deliveries of] weapons. A whole range of products fall into this category - from ammunition to the weapons themselves ...
We made it clear to them [China] that this would create a serious problem for us and our relationship.

Now, President Biden personally announced the “red lines” for China:

I don't expect a major initiative from China supplying arms to Russia... It would be the same line that everyone else would cross. In other words, we imposed tough sanctions on anyone who did.

This is the general schedule. Will Beijing supply arms and ammunition to Moscow in fear of US sanctions? It seems not. But he certainly won’t sit back, counting on chance, like some, either.

It is very likely that North Korea will be used to supply arms and ammunition to Russia. Yes, the North Korean artillery uses Soviet calibers, and its military industry allows for the planned production of as many guns and shells as needed. Pyongyang was one of the first to recognize the independence of the DPR and LPR and fully agreed with Russia on the issue of Ukraine, saying that they are now "in the same trench."

Most likely, the "Chinese lend-lease", if it is carried out, will go through the DPRK, where the necessary weapons and ammunition will be legalized. It is also possible to increase military supplies from Iran, already without any hesitation and looking back at the opinion of "Western partners".
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  1. Jacques sekavar Offline Jacques sekavar
    Jacques sekavar (Jacques Sekavar) 25 February 2023 11: 15
    Proposals for ending the war in Ukraine are multiplying every month, and not a single state entity is averse to acting as an intermediary and thereby increasing its significance and authority. The option of a truce proposed by the PRC does not oblige anyone to anything and does not solve the fundamental contradictions that lie in the approach that served to start the war - the West stands from the standpoint of the inviolability of the Belovezhskaya agreements and borders after the collapse of the USSR, and the Russian Federation from the standpoint of equal security and the right to self-determination of certain regions other than those that are part of the Russian Federation, which, in the light of relations with the United States, is not alien to the PRC, and therefore if it comes to "Chinese lend-lease", which is unlikely, then with a high degree of probability, lend-lease will go in a roundabout way to deprive the United States and the EU a pretext for intensifying the sanctions war and will provide a reliable rear in the event of a direct confrontation with the United States.
  2. Constantine N Offline Constantine N
    Constantine N (Constantin N) 25 February 2023 11: 38
    chips for supersonic missiles are needed
  3. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 25 February 2023 12: 16
    All nonsense.

    Omerica's share of trade with China is much, much larger than Russia

    And what for to convey something to him if China has not recognized anything. That is, according to their Communist Party, all this is just Aggression and Capture. Which they, in their peace initiative (unrealizable, but still) propose to stop.

    Supply weapons under these conditions? It's a loss of face.

    But buying cheap resources to the metropolis is right and beneficial for them. What are they doing
  4. k7k8 Offline k7k8
    k7k8 (vic) 25 February 2023 12: 25
    The author, realizing that calls to draw Belarus into the war did not lead to anything, switched to China.
  5. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 25 February 2023 13: 00
    Because the risk of suffering a military defeat in the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, up to the breakthrough of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the Crimea, really exists. This will be a terrible image blow to President Putin

    Author, do not escalate passions. The worse things go for Kyiv, the more hysteria appears to capture something. Peace negotiations in this conflict are not yet possible.
  6. Vox_Populi Offline Vox_Populi
    Vox_Populi (vox populi) 25 February 2023 15: 49
    Direct military supplies from the PRC to the Russian Federation are unrealistic (so far, anyway), and through the DPRK and some other countries are possible, but unlikely (so far, anyway) ...
  7. unc-2 Offline unc-2
    unc-2 (Nikolai Malyugin) 25 February 2023 20: 05
    When it comes to China, one can only make assumptions. A mysterious country with a mysterious philosophy. Perhaps China, having made these proposals, was counting on the West's rejection of these proposals. China decided to show its political importance. Judging by the behavior of the Celestial Empire, the country in every possible way wants to avoid any clashes with the United States and other countries in the region. Over the past years, too much has been created to blow through in an instant. "When crossing a river, always feel the bottom of the river with your feet." "The best victory in war is to avoid war." Now China has shown that only two people sit at the chessboard. USA and China.
    1. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 26 February 2023 17: 28
      Everything is true, of course, but the fuss of the United States with Taiwan in defiance of the PRC speaks of something else - tension is growing between the United States and China at the initiative of the United States. In this vein, the PRC is already without a way out and should help the Russian Federation, its strategic ally, in the upcoming possibly "hot" confrontation. And the likelihood of hidden supplies is already possible, with the further expansion of the Ukrainian crisis by NATO, joint actions are being run for further, and primarily against China ..
  8. Adm Hts Offline Adm Hts
    Adm Hts (AdmHts) 26 February 2023 01: 26
    China will not supply us with anything ...
    they are not their own enemies...
    their main client is the west, and Russia is at the level of statistical error ...

  9. Vladimir80 Offline Vladimir80
    Vladimir80 26 February 2023 08: 02
    Russia cannot count on any help, moreover, we cannot even count on unity within the country, with one "hand" we demand an increase in the production of tanks, with the other "hand" we close repair plants and supply raw materials for enemies (thanks to the towers for this surrealism !)
  10. maiman61 Offline maiman61
    maiman61 (Yuri) 26 February 2023 11: 12
    China's global mistake, that everything will resolve itself, can turn into big problems for China! It is easier to foresee and provide timely assistance to Russia, and then in the historical perspective it will have a back cover from the north and help Russia in possible conflicts. But China does not consider the option that when China bleeds, then Russia, remembering China's "help" only by moving its tongue, will also provide "help" only by moving its tongue!
  11. usm5 Offline usm5
    usm5 (George) 26 February 2023 14: 29
    The Chinese Peace Accords is a document whose task is to demonstrate the inability of the Washington Regional Committee and its satellites to negotiate. The question is what kind of confrontation will Russia and China choose. Option number 1-local war in Ukraine, followed by the joint development of the liberated territories. Option number 2-causing a strategic defeat of the United States and its satellites in a thermonuclear war.
  12. Luenkov Offline Luenkov
    Luenkov (Arkady) 26 February 2023 17: 06
    Beyond the brackets is that the defeat of Russia is the defeat of China? Why so much blah blah
  13. Krantik Offline Krantik
    Krantik (Alexy) 6 March 2023 13: 16
    As long as American-style democracy thrives in the world, Khodorkovsky and others will be able to climb anywhere.
    In the authoritarian USSR, there was a candidate Against All.
    And in a shitty society, he was simply banned.
    Because if he was - where would all this shobla controlling rushes (or a ball) be? The question is rhetorical, in places not so remote. Even according to the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation written by criminals and the Washington Regional Committee. This gang is chosen by a maximum of 20% of the population, the rest simply do not go. And why, whomever you choose from the proposed ones - you're in the ass.
    And why waste time.