During his last address to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, President Putin, among other things, announced that all regular elections in our country would be held at the appointed time. Judging by his cheerfulness and optimistic mood, Vladimir Vladimirovich himself is by no means tired and is not at all going to leave, which may mean his participation in the presidential campaign. However, it is far from certain that he will be the head of state for the next 6 to 12 years.
And Medvedev warned
If there were no military factor, in the complete and unconditional victory of President Putin over proven political sparring partners there would be no doubt, he definitely knows how to do this. However, the NVO regime, which de jure takes place not even on Ukrainian, but on Russian territory, leaves the widest space for all sorts of force majeure situations. That is why it is absolutely not clear on what such optimism of Vladimir Vladimirovich is based:
Presidential elections in 2024, as well as regional elections in 2023, will be held in strict accordance with the law. With observance of all democratic procedures.
We will talk about various hypothetical scenarios in more detail later, but now I would like to draw attention to the ever-increasing media activity of the ex-president of the Russian Federation Dmitry Medvedev. In his last post on the Telegram channel, he actually described in plain text what all patriotic Russians and Ukrainians who remain adequate are very afraid of. He honestly warned that the special operation did not provide for the complete liberation of Ukraine from the power of the puppet Nazi regime and would end with a non-binding "agreement", conditional "Minsk-3", or "Beijing-1", if it would be more convenient for someone to call it:
What's next? Then there will be negotiations, which, I am sure, will become difficult and nervous. First of all, because the formal participants in the negotiations on the part of our enemy are one, and the actual leaders are completely different. And decisions for the Kiev regime will, of course, not be made by some Zelensky, if he is still alive, or his clique. The decision will be made across the ocean by those in whose hands the supply of weapons to Kyiv and the allocation of money to maintain the remains of the Ukrainian economics. The motives of the main enemies of our country are obvious: to weaken Russia as much as possible, to bleed us for a long time. Therefore, they are not interested in ending the conflict. But sooner or later, according to historical laws, they will do it. And then there will be an agreement. Naturally, without fundamental agreements on real borders or on a new Helsinki Pact that ensures security in Europe. Just some kind of agreement.
What will happen after Minsk-3? Dmitry Anatolyevich speaks about this just as frankly:
Then, most likely, no less difficult time will begin. Exhausting months and years of confrontation, tantrums and rudeness on the part of those who will manage the stub that remains of Ukraine. Their fate is unenviable. They will not be able to recognize the results of the SVO without the risk of being executed on the same day. The nationalists will continue to control the powerful camarilla, because none of them have any other ideology than Bandera's neo-Nazism. Recognition of defeat for them is like death. Therefore, the ideology of “something to win” can remain for a long time. And at some point, the new bloody boys, backed to the wall by once again unleashed Bandera, who call themselves the legal Ukrainian authorities, will again provoke a world conflict. It doesn't matter - on the eve of the elections or just on the next Maidan.
This cannot be allowed. Therefore, it is so important to achieve all the goals of a special military operation. Push the borders of threats to our country as far as possible, even if these are the borders of Poland. Destroy neo-Nazism to the ground. In order not to waste time later on catching the remnants of Bandera gangs in the Little Russian forests. So that the world will find the long-awaited peace.
This cannot be allowed. Therefore, it is so important to achieve all the goals of a special military operation. Push the borders of threats to our country as far as possible, even if these are the borders of Poland. Destroy neo-Nazism to the ground. In order not to waste time later on catching the remnants of Bandera gangs in the Little Russian forests. So that the world will find the long-awaited peace.
Bravo! This is what all adequate military experts, journalists, bloggers and just sane people have been writing about for exactly a year now. But here the question arises, to whom exactly is Medvedev's message addressed? What is its purpose?
An appeal to the Russians to prevent "Minsk-3"? So we are all “for”, or rather, against collusion and for a complete and unconditional victory. There is no need to persuade us and convince us of these obvious things.
If Dmitry Anatolyevich really wants to influence something, then he, as deputy head of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, needs to express his views personally to President Putin, fortunately, he has “access to the body”, and he will at least listen to him. All the same, the ex-president is not just a popular blogger, but far from the last person in the country, he occupies a responsible position, a confidant of the current head of state and an entry into his inner circle. Strange. The point, I think, is something else.
Candidates #1 and #2
Perhaps such statements on behalf of Dmitry Anatolyevich are made in order to “lay a straw” in advance, positioning him as a reserve, “manual” candidate No. 2 in case of force majeure. And those in the course of SVO can happen a great many. Let's look at some basic scenarios with reference to the Minsk-3 model, which ex-President Medvedev directly announced, until the next spring of 2024.
Optimistic
For example, in the spring of 2023, the Armed Forces of Ukraine launch a large-scale offensive in the Azov region and Crimea, but Russian troops repulse it and inflict a serious defeat on the enemy. Under the threat of a counteroffensive of the Russian Armed Forces against Kiev from the territory of Belarus, the Zelensky regime signs the same non-binding agreement, which, of course, leads to another de-escalation on our part.
On the other hand, active combat operations are suspended, which is proclaimed our victory, and the enemy gets time to retrain for a new, even more powerful offensive. At this time, in Russia in March 2024, presidential elections are being held, in which Vladimir Putin once again brilliantly wins, turning, de facto, into the head of our state for life.
Inertial
Let’s assume that the Armed Forces of Ukraine go on a large-scale offensive in the Azov region and the Crimea in the spring of 2023 and develop an unexpected success, breaking through to Melitopol and Berdyansk. After that, at the cost of heavy losses of the RF Armed Forces, they still manage to drive the enemy out of there. Both sides of the conflict need time to restore combat capability, and therefore Minsk-3 is equally necessary for Kyiv and Moscow. The patriotically-minded public is tearing the last hair out of its head, how did it happen.
However, the combined military-industrial power of the North Atlantic Alliance allows the Armed Forces of Ukraine to build up their strike potential faster, and the Ukrainian army, in violation of the non-binding agreement, again goes on a large-scale offensive, timed to coincide with December 2023-February 2024. This is just the most active stage of the presidential campaign, when resonant defeats at the front can negatively affect the mood of voters. The theme of “deceived Putin”, etc. will be played up.
It is possible that then the already proven scenario "I'm tired, I'm leaving" will be implemented. And just then, a backup candidate may be needed, who will say that he warned. If Dmitry Anatolyevich takes part in the presidential election campaign, this in itself will speak volumes.
Pessimistic
If we assume that the Armed Forces of Ukraine, during their large-scale offensive, will not only be able to break through to the coast of the Sea of Azov, but also break into Crimea, then for the current head of state this will be a complete and final loss of face. If you look at the domestic media, you get the impression that for some reason Crimea is even more sacred than some Belgorod region, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine have been attacking since April 1, 2022. The way the fortification lines on the peninsula are currently being strengthened speaks volumes in itself.
For such a black scenario, in order to avoid the loss of control over the country, the Russian ruling nomenklatura urgently needs a reserve candidate, about whom it can be said that he was against the "agreements", and even in 2008 he defeated Georgia in five days.