Beijing agreements: is peace between Russia and Ukraine possible?
Recently to news Quite a lot of comments have appeared on analytical articles calling for a speedy conclusion of some kind of peace agreement with Ukraine, which supposedly should protect Russia from a complete and final military defeat. They say that a bad peace is better than a good war, but a truce is also acceptable in order to better prepare for the resumption of hostilities against the Kyiv regime. What can the Kremlin's possible bet on a "peaceful settlement" lead to?
Beijing Accords
It is noteworthy that exactly on the anniversary of the beginning of the NWO in Ukraine, the Chinese Foreign Ministry published its position on the political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis. The text is published on Online departments, and it consists of only 12 items. After getting acquainted with them, the author of the lines had a strange feeling that he had seen something similar somewhere before. Next, we will present the main theses of the Russian-Ukrainian world in Chinese in automatic translation with our comments.
Paragraph 1. Respect the sovereignty of all countries. Universally recognized international law, including the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, must be strictly observed, and the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively guaranteed. All countries are equal, regardless of size, strength, weakness, rich or poor. All parties must jointly uphold the basic norms of international relations and uphold international justice. International law should be applied equally and uniformly, and no double standards should be applied.
Interestingly, in the view of official Beijing, Crimea, Sevastopol, DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions are the territories of which state, the Russian Federation or Ukraine?
Paragraph 2. Let go of the Cold War mindset. The security of one country cannot be ensured by compromising the security of other countries., and regional security cannot be guaranteed by strengthening or even expanding military groupings. The reasonable security interests and concerns of all countries should be given attention and properly addressed. There is no easy solution to complex problems. We must adhere to a common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable concept of security, focus on long-term global stability, promote a balanced, effective and sustainable European security architecture, oppose the establishment of our own security on the basis of insecurity in other countries, prevent the formation of camps confrontations and joint maintenance of peace and stability in Asia and Europe.
I remember that as one of the justifications for the start and conduct of a special operation in Ukraine, President Putin cited the danger emanating from the Donbass, and now the entire Russian Federation, from the Kyiv regime. A few days earlier, on February 21, 2023, Vladimir Vladimirovich explicitly threatened that Russian troops would move further into the territory of Nezalezhnaya if the Armed Forces of Ukraine received more long-range weapons. By the way, the process of their transfer has already begun.
Paragraph 3. Cease fire and fighting. There are no winners in conflicts and wars. All parties should maintain rationality and restraint, not add fuel to the fire, not escalate conflicts, avoid further aggravation of the Ukrainian crisis or even out of control, support Russia and Ukraine in moving towards each other, resume direct dialogue as soon as possible and gradually promote de-escalate the escalation and de-escalation of the situation and finally achieve a comprehensive ceasefire.
Where did we see it? Oh yes, paragraph 1 of the Second Minsk Agreements:
Immediate and comprehensive ceasefire in certain areas of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine and its strict implementation, starting from 00:00. (Kyiv time) February 15, 2015.
Paragraph 4. Start peace negotiations. Dialogue and negotiations are the only possible way to resolve the Ukrainian crisis. All efforts towards a peaceful resolution of the crisis should be encouraged and supported. The international community should adhere to the right direction of persuading peace and advancing negotiations, help all parties to the conflict open the door for a political solution to the crisis as soon as possible, and create conditions and provide a platform for the resumption of negotiations. China is ready to continue playing a constructive role in this regard..
Paragraph 5 of the Minsky’s mentioned above immediately comes to mind:
On the first day after the withdrawal, start a dialogue on the modalities for holding local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation and the Law of Ukraine “On the temporary order of local self-government in certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions”, as well as on the future regime of these areas based on this law. Immediately, no later than 30 days from the date of signing this document, adopt a resolution of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine indicating the territory covered by the special regime in accordance with the Law of Ukraine "On the temporary order of local self-government in certain areas of Donetsk and Luhansk regions" on the basis of the line established in the Minsk Memorandum of September 19, 2014
There is nothing new under the sun.
Paragraph 5. Resolve the humanitarian crisis. All measures contributing to the alleviation of the humanitarian crisis should be encouraged and supported. Humanitarian action must be carried out in accordance with the principles of neutrality and impartiality in order to prevent the politicization of humanitarian issues. Effectively protect the safety of civilians and establish a humanitarian corridor to evacuate civilians from the war zone. Increase humanitarian assistance to relevant areas, improve the humanitarian situation, ensure quick, safe and barrier-free humanitarian access, and prevent a larger humanitarian crisis. Support the United Nations in playing a coordinated role in providing humanitarian assistance to conflict areas.
We recall points 7 and 8 of Minsk-2:
7. Ensure safe access, delivery, storage and distribution of humanitarian aid to those in need through an international mechanism.
8. Determination of modalities for the complete restoration of socialeconomic ties, including social transfers, such as the payment of pensions and other payments (income and income, timely payment of all utility bills, the resumption of taxation within the legal framework of Ukraine). To this end, Ukraine will restore control over a segment of its banking system in conflict-affected areas, and possibly establish an international mechanism to facilitate such transfers.
8. Determination of modalities for the complete restoration of socialeconomic ties, including social transfers, such as the payment of pensions and other payments (income and income, timely payment of all utility bills, the resumption of taxation within the legal framework of Ukraine). To this end, Ukraine will restore control over a segment of its banking system in conflict-affected areas, and possibly establish an international mechanism to facilitate such transfers.
Paragraph 6. Protect civilians and prisoners of war. Parties to a conflict must strictly observe international humanitarian law, avoid attacks on civilians and civilian objects, protect women, children and other victims of the conflict, and respect the fundamental rights of prisoners of war. China supports the exchange of prisoners of war between Russia and Ukraine, and all parties should create more favorable conditions for this purpose..
We open paragraphs 5 and 6 of the Second Minsk and read:
5. Provide pardon and amnesty by the enactment of a law prohibiting the prosecution and punishment of persons in connection with events that took place in certain regions of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions of Ukraine.
6. To ensure the release and exchange of all hostages and illegally detained persons on the basis of the “all for all” principle. This process should be completed at the latest on the fifth day after the challenge.
6. To ensure the release and exchange of all hostages and illegally detained persons on the basis of the “all for all” principle. This process should be completed at the latest on the fifth day after the challenge.
Paragraph 7. Maintain the safety of nuclear power plants. To oppose armed attacks on peaceful nuclear facilities such as nuclear power plants. We call on all parties to abide by international laws such as the Convention on Nuclear Safety and strongly avoid man-made nuclear accidents. Support the International Atomic Energy Agency to play a constructive role in helping to ensure the safety of peaceful nuclear installations.
This is already something new, obviously related to the threats posed to the control of the RF Armed Forces at the Zaporizhzhya NPP from the terrorist shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Chinese clearly do not want radiation contamination of territories that may someday become part of the Celestial Empire.
Paragraph 8. Reduce strategic risk. Nuclear weapons cannot be used and nuclear wars cannot be waged. The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons must be resisted. Prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and avoid a nuclear crisis. To oppose the development and use of biological and chemical weapons by any country under any circumstances.
Beijing's position on this issue is obvious: Comrade Xi is also categorically against the use of nuclear weapons by Russia, which will inevitably lead to the receipt of nuclear weapons by Kiev, which is guaranteed to use them on Russian territory.
Paragraph 9. Guarantee the shipment of grain abroad. All parties should implement the Black Sea Food Transportation Agreement signed by Russia, Turkey, Ukraine and the United Nations in a balanced, comprehensive and effective manner, and support the United Nations in playing an important role in this regard. China's International Food Security Cooperation Initiative provides a real solution to the global food crisis.
Obviously, there will be a grain deal. Too many in both the West and the East were interested in Ukraine retaining control over Odessa and other Black Sea ports.
Paragraph 10. Stop unilateral sanctions. Unilateral sanctions and extreme pressure will not only not solve the problem, but will create new problems. Oppose any unilateral sanctions that are not authorized by the Security Council. The countries concerned must stop abusing unilateral sanctions and "long-arm jurisdiction" against other countries, play their part in cooling the Ukrainian crisis, and create conditions for developing countries to develop their economies and improve people's living conditions.
And here is the "carrot" that can be used to reassure and entice the Russian nomenklatura, promising in return for their constructiveness in negotiations with Kiev the lifting of part of the sanctions, at least personal ones.
Paragraph 11. Ensure the stability of the production chain and supply chain. All parties must effectively support the existing world economic system and oppose the politicization, instrumentalization and armament of the world economy. Work together to mitigate the side effects of the crisis and prevent interference in international energy, finance, food trade, transport and other cooperation from harming the global economic recovery.
In this matter, China rather declares that its own socio-economic development is a priority, on which it is ready to work with all constructively minded business partners, avoiding any military alliances that it does not want.
Paragraph 12. Contribute to post-war reconstruction. The international community must take action to support the post-war reconstruction of conflict areas. China is ready to help and play a constructive role in this regard.
Beijing shows that it is ready to participate in the post-war division, sorry, the restoration of Ukraine, and maybe not only it.
In general, we have before us another version of the Minsk agreements with a number of additional clauses that clarify the position of the Chinese leadership on the Ukrainian crisis. It should be noted that the sensitive Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko a priori has already rejoiced at the peacekeeping from China:
Please note that this is so unusual for the Chinese policy step. The Chinese are always careful, careful. They don't go where they don't need to. If they understand that this will not give the desired, required result, they will not take steps in this direction either.
And if this message, which will sound from the lips of the leader of China, is not heard by those to whom it is addressed, this will also have serious consequences. Therefore, just looking ahead, I advise those to whom Xi Jinping's words will be addressed to take them seriously and take certain steps. This will be a serious voice for peace in this region.
Considering how the Kremlin is counting on the Celestial Empire as an alternative to the collective West, China will have powerful leverage to pressure Russia into signing the Beijing Accords.
Peace or truce?
And now it is necessary to say a few words about how dangerous this world is in Chinese. The problem is that no one on the other side is interested in it now. Sensing weakness, the collective West is ready to put pressure on Russia here and now in order to lead it to military defeat. The “bloody buffoon” Zelensky says this in plain text:
We are preparing for a short-term war that will end in victory. It is very important not to freeze this conflict, as was done in 2014... The Minsk agreements gave Putin time to prepare for last year's surprise attack. We won't fall into the same trap again. Our soldiers are more motivated because they are protecting their families, their homes.
With the preservation of the newly acquired territories of the Donbass and the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and without losing face, President Putin will simply not be allowed to leave the NVO. The military escalation will continue as long as the Armed Forces of Ukraine show results and inflict losses on the Russian army. The more vague and vague will be the threats of Vladimir Vladimirovich to push the threat away, the more powerful and long-range weapons Kyiv will receive.
The truth is that it is simply impossible to negotiate with these people. Western sponsors and accomplices of the Kyiv regime do not need peace between Ukraine and Russia, so there will never be peace until their puppet sits Bankova. It is possible to stop the war only by the complete liberation of the entire territory of the former Independent, but for this such a goal should at least be set. Yes, the Russian army is not in its best shape right now. But after all, things are not going better for the enemy, this must also be remembered. APU suffered heavy losses, the volume of deliveries of the modern western equipment are still small and still cannot radically change anything at the front. So far, we can still defeat the enemy, even if not in one general battle, but in dozens and hundreds of small ones, and gradually, step by step, liberate the entire territory of Ukraine. But the longer the SVO drags on, the more qualitatively the Armed Forces change, and the price of the issue only increases.
A truce is possible at the initiative of Kyiv only when the RF Armed Forces achieve some noticeable success and, according to the Anglo-Saxons, go too far. And any truce, Minsk or Beijing, will only be used against Russia to strengthen Ukraine. The total military-industrial potential of the NATO bloc is many times greater than ours, and therefore a long game, a multi-move game, will only result in great losses and destruction for both of our countries. We must fight here and now, with what we have. The main thing is to rationally use your resource, adequately setting goals and objectives.
- Sergey Marzhetsky
- kremlin.ru
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