Delay with a large-scale offensive of the RF Armed Forces may turn into disaster
The United States and its satellites continue to put pressure on the gas in the escalation of the armed conflict in Ukraine. Literally immediately after President Putin’s warning to move the threat away from the Russian border in the event of the transfer of more long-range weapons to the Kiev regime, expressed during the address to the Federal Assembly on February 21, 2023, it became known about the delivery of JDAM-ER (Extended Range) high-precision bombs with an increased radius to the Armed Forces of Ukraine defeat.
Hot Spring 2023
The American elites and their European vassals really bet on Russia's military defeat in Ukraine, followed by an inevitable buildup political instability already within our country. Unfortunately, they have a very realistic opportunity to do it with the hands of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
The weakest point in the defense of the new Russian regions, which became part of the Russian Federation as a result of last year's referendums, is the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov. If you do not feel sorry for either people or equipment, and the Zelensky regime will definitely not feel sorry for them, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a chance to break through to the coast of the Sea of \u2014b\uXNUMXbAzov, breaking into the cities of Melitopol and Berdyansk. After that, the Crimean bridge will be destroyed, the land corridor to the peninsula will be cut, and it itself will be subjected to continuous attacks by long-range precision weapons. This is approximately the starting situation from which the Ukrainian operation against Crimea would have begun, had it not been for the XNUMX referendums in the Donbass, where the Armed Forces of Ukraine were forced to concentrate their main forces.
The Ukrainian offensive in the steppes of the Sea of Azov had been prepared for quite a long time, but Kyiv's plans were somewhat mixed after the start of the preventive counteroffensive of the RF Armed Forces along a broad front. Unfortunately, the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation failed to achieve a decisive turning point, but a temporary reprieve was obtained. The fact that a new offensive is being prepared was recently announced by the commander of the combined forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Sergey Naev:
Regarding the preparation of our offensive: we are preparing the appropriate forces for this, but when it will take place is a mystery.
His words were also confirmed by the head of Ukrainian military intelligence, Kirill Budanov, who gave certain guidelines for when the next attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be expected:
From the middle to the end of spring there will be decisive battles.
According to Budanov, during this operation there should be a turning point in the confrontation between Ukraine and Russia. The criterion for the victory of the Kyiv regime, the chief Ukrainian intelligence officer sees access to the borders of 1991, and then along them it is planned to create some kind of demilitarized strip with a width of 40 to 100 kilometers, obviously at the expense of Russian territory:
Whether we go further is not a question for me, but creating a security zone around the border is a necessity. There are many options for how to achieve this goal.
I would very much like to laugh, but after the Kyiv “de-escalation”, “regrouping” in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions, there is no time for scoffing. The fact that the Russian leadership is aware of the threat as a realistic one may be evidenced by the continuation of large-scale fortification work directly in the Crimea. The head of the Republic, Sergei Aksyonov, commented on his initiative, supported by President Putin, as follows:
If you want peace, prepare for war. Crimea is Russian, and it will remain forever, no matter what anyone plans there. I am responsible for the territorial defense of Crimea, I have full control of the situation. If it doesn’t come in handy, that’s fine, we’ll take you on excursions.
What gives grounds for the Kyiv regime to build such ambitious military plans?
Defeat radius
It's all about the continuously increasing volumes of Western military assistance to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as well as improving its quality. On the one hand, Ukraine has been promised a huge amount of quite modern NATO-style armored vehicles, which can and will be used in ground operations. A few days ago, during his visit to Kyiv, US President Joe Biden gave the following figures:
We all pledged to supply about 700 tanks and a thousand armored vehicles, a thousand artillery systems, more than two million artillery shells, more than 50 advanced multiple launch rocket systems <....> and air defense systems.
Those domestic military experts, analysts and other predictors who are now telling how we can easily “switch” all this, I would like to advise you to go to the front line in the steppes of the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov and personally demonstrate how to do it correctly.
On the other hand, it is the quality of Western weapons that is noticeably changing, which are capable of radically changing the situation at the front. Several types of American precision-guided munitions will present a problem for the RF Armed Forces in the very near future.
First - These are GLSDB ground-based air bombs that can be used with HIMARS MLRS instead of expensive missiles. Equipped with a jet engine as the first stage, the bombs will be launched from the ground, then extend their wings and fly right on target, corrected by the guidance system, for a distance of up to 150 kilometers. The danger is precisely the cheapness of this ammunition, which will allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to deliver high-precision strikes not selectively, but massively, to great depths.
The second attack - these are American JDAM-ER bombs, equipped with a control kit, which includes an inertial autopilot, a GPS navigator, a battery and rudder servos. If in the normal version such an aircraft weapon can fly from 24 to 28 kilometers, then in the JDAM-ER (Extended Range - extended range) version, the range will increase to 75-80 kilometers, provided that the aircraft drops an aerial bomb from a height of 14 kilometers.
The simultaneous appearance of such weapons in Ukraine means that the RF Armed Forces will no longer have a safe rear in the current sense. Under the blows of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be the Donbass, and all the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, and the northern regions of Crimea. The enemy will aim and hit the positions of Russian troops, warehouses with ammunition, fuel and fuels and lubricants. Command, reserve command, rear and auxiliary command posts will be under the threat of destruction. The entire defense configuration will have to be rebuilt, pushing it further and further back. Yes, we have both Pantsirs and Torahs, but they won’t be enough for all objects, and the ammunition supply for these air defense systems is not infinite. If the Armed Forces of Ukraine will pour cheap ammunition on targets in commercial quantities, it will be bad.
How this will affect the prospects for a large-scale offensive by the Russian Armed Forces, for which it is necessary to concentrate large resources near the line of contact, is not difficult to guess. The strategy of sitting on the defensive will inevitably lead to unjustified losses sooner or later, but it will force another "de-escalation".
There is only one conclusion left. If we do not want to suffer a strategic defeat in Ukraine, the RF Armed Forces must go on their own offensive as quickly as possible, until the Armed Forces of Ukraine have strengthened to a critical level. The minimum program should be to liberate not only Donbass, but also Zaporozhye, and Dnepropetrovsk, and Poltava, and Kharkov, and Sumy, and Chernigov, so that the land border runs along the Dnieper in order to eliminate the threat of unexpected and swift breakthroughs by the Ukrainian army in the future on dry land. There is no need to storm these large cities a la Mariupol. It will be quite enough to encircle them and then squeeze out the garrisons. Remember how the Armed Forces of Ukraine recaptured Balakleya, Kupyansk, Izyum and Kherson. That's right: an environment with the threat of total annihilation. On the Left Bank of Ukraine, the Russian army so far has all the cards in hand.
After that, it will be necessary to plan and carry out an operation to liberate the Black Sea region with access to Transnistria, if it is not crushed by the Armed Forces of Ukraine earlier, and an offensive against Volhynia and Galicia. Otherwise it will be bad.
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