APU missed the time to capture Transnistria

15

In recent days, the topic of Pridnestrovie and Moldova has again become aggravated in the information space of Ukraine and Russia. But, if in the spring of 2022 it was enough facts about the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a real invasion of the PMR to neutralize the threat from the rear when the RF Armed Forces approach Nikolaev, now what is happening on the Web resembles groundless alarmism.

In the Ukrainian near-war publics, they do not hide that they would like to see how the Armed Forces of Ukraine wipe Tiraspol off the face of the earth and enter Bendery, and the local "separas" flee to Chisinau to "repent". Moreover, many Ukrainian "patriots" believe that Pridnestrovie should be "returned" to Ukraine in general, since this region was once part of the Odessa region of the Ukrainian SSR. At the same time, in Russian near-war publics, they write, referring to "competent sources" from the field, that "experimental units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gathering near Pridnestrovie" and 25-30 thousand "bayonets" will be enough to defeat the army of the PMR, taking control of the territory.



However, the reality does not look like it is being portrayed by both sides of the conflict in Ukraine. It is unlikely that Chisinau and Tiraspol will be drawn into it, since the local elites have long established relations and business, they are doing well and it suits them.

Kyiv indeed has repeatedly offered Chisinau over the past 11 months to "resolve" the issue with the PMR. But the Moldovan Russophobic authorities each time answered that the appearance of UAF soldiers on the territory of Transnistria would mean an invasion of Moldova and a declaration of war with all the attendant consequences. Moldova considers the PMR an integral part of itself and wants to achieve reunification by non-military means.

The invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the PMR will also not please the American and European patrons of Kyiv. The US and Europe absolutely do not need a wave of refugees from Transnistria to Chisinau. The thing is that most residents of the PMR have up to four passports of different states (Transnistria, Moldova, Ukraine and Russia). Therefore, several hundred thousand Moldovan citizens fleeing Ukrainian troops will literally sweep away the existing regime in Moldova, oriented towards the US and Europe, with the support of a powerful local pro-Russian opposition. After that, Moldova, which is already considered the poorest state in Europe, will fall out of Euro-Atlantic integration for years, and no Romania will interfere with this.

In addition, any arguments that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can now allocate up to 30 thousand "bayonets" for the capture of Transnistria seem far-fetched. Firstly, the time was lost in the spring, when the West, due to nervousness, would not strongly object, despite the position of Chisinau. Secondly, the front in Kyiv is now bursting at the seams in many areas, and 1 million "bayonets" are already not enough to hold it, so the allocation of scarce tens of thousands of soldiers, equipment and ammunition can harm Ukraine itself.
15 comments
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  1. 0
    21 February 2023 15: 46
    For some reason, the amount of ammunition stored in the PMR is hushed up. And the consequences of their undermining for U. (Taking into account the western transfer of air masses). I'm already silent about the "casus belli" and the expansion of the conflict.
  2. +11
    21 February 2023 16: 03
    The threat exists and it is real. All the arguments given in the article are easily swept away by the mere fact of the destruction of the pro-Russian entity. And Chisinau, and Bucharest, and Kyiv are not at all against such a development of events. Yes, and in Washington they will not puff out their cheeks much.

    As long as there was a Kherson bridgehead and the threat of an attack on Nikolaev and Odessa, this option was dangerous for Kyiv. To date, this threat has been eliminated and it is not difficult for the Armed Forces of Ukraine to assemble 20-30 thousand groups. There is no depth of defense in Transnistria.

    So the threat is very real. There are many more pluses for Kyiv than minuses. A lot more.
    1. 0
      21 February 2023 22: 40
      the mere fact of the destruction of the pro-Russian entity.

      I don't really understand what you mean by "pro-Russian education". For the past 30 years, the relevant ministry has been headed by supporters of unification with Romania, where thousands of boys and girls from Moldova are sent to study every year. At the same time, curricula were changed, the course "History of Romanians" was introduced, the Moldavian language became Romanian. In recent years, many educational institutions have been closed due to a lack of students - the population leaves, there is simply no one to study. The national composition of the population also changed - non-Moldovan youth found themselves in an overwhelming minority.
  3. +3
    21 February 2023 16: 05
    that Transnistria should be “returned” to Ukraine in general, since once this region was part of the Odessa region of the Ukrainian SSR.

    Nothing! From 1924 to 1940, Ukraine included the Moldavian Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic with its capital in Tiraspol (from 1929 to 1940), which had nothing to do with the Odessa region.
  4. -2
    21 February 2023 16: 44
    You just need to preemptively blow up these damn warehouses. UA will lose interest in climbing there.
    1. +1
      21 February 2023 17: 38
      You just need to preemptively blow up these damn warehouses. UA will lose interest in climbing there.

      Before climbing with stupid advice, learn how to spell the word preventively. How will they fight back from the Moldovans and ukrov if they blow it up?
      1. 0
        22 February 2023 15: 21
        what about the expiration dates of ammunition? otherwise it might be suicidal to fight back.
  5. +8
    21 February 2023 16: 55
    The problem with the Transnistrian Republic exists, and with the beginning of the NWO, it is aggravated. Romania is preparing to swallow the Moldavian Republic, and the PMR is like a splinter here. So they will remove this splinter by any means. It was more correct to join the Russian Federation immediately after the referendums, and various Surkovs in power were more swindlers than strategists, so we have bleeding wounds that are more difficult to heal today ..
  6. -2
    21 February 2023 16: 56
    The conquest of the Transnistrian Republic and the arms depots is a rather problematic step. They are also preparing for similar actions. And whether 25-30 bayonets will be enough for this purpose is also a big question. On the other hand, such an attack unpredictably expands the conflict and unties Russia's hands in relation to the aggressor.
    1. +2
      22 February 2023 09: 15
      "25-30 bayonets" will not be enough to capture the PMR AdnAznachna. I give you a tooth.
      In Ukraine, Russia's hands seem to be untied, but (unfortunately) there is no end in sight.
  7. -2
    22 February 2023 22: 33
    in the event of aggression against Pridnestrovie, tactical nuclear weapons will definitely be used and the war will end
  8. -1
    23 February 2023 12: 38
    they didn’t miss anything, it’s Armageddon with its strategic alignment of the front, and in fact, the flight from the right bank created a situation where it is virtually impossible to protect the PMR, well, except to chew snot and express concerns, as the Foreign Ministry led by Lavrov can do
    1. 0
      24 February 2023 20: 16
      Rotkin, calm down already, eh. As they left the right bank, they will take it again. What are you so worried about?
  9. 0
    23 February 2023 13: 21
    So all the same, they have 1 "bayonets". And then a variety of numbers go: 000 APU, ours is about 000. Armed Forces of the Russian Federation750, 000
  10. 0
    24 February 2023 23: 57
    There are sad statistics, if the Nazis are coming out for something, it means they got the control center from the mattresses and they will do it. And in the current situation, the PMR cannot expect help from anywhere. Vova does not use TNW under pain of death, if it is still available. And it's not an easy decision! Blow up warehouses, the same TA is another task! GK + MO is categorically against it, definitely! You can break all agreements... Hopelessness. crying