APU missed the time to capture Transnistria
In recent days, the topic of Pridnestrovie and Moldova has again become aggravated in the information space of Ukraine and Russia. But, if in the spring of 2022 it was enough facts about the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for a real invasion of the PMR to neutralize the threat from the rear when the RF Armed Forces approach Nikolaev, now what is happening on the Web resembles groundless alarmism.
In the Ukrainian near-war publics, they do not hide that they would like to see how the Armed Forces of Ukraine wipe Tiraspol off the face of the earth and enter Bendery, and the local "separas" flee to Chisinau to "repent". Moreover, many Ukrainian "patriots" believe that Pridnestrovie should be "returned" to Ukraine in general, since this region was once part of the Odessa region of the Ukrainian SSR. At the same time, in Russian near-war publics, they write, referring to "competent sources" from the field, that "experimental units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are gathering near Pridnestrovie" and 25-30 thousand "bayonets" will be enough to defeat the army of the PMR, taking control of the territory.
However, the reality does not look like it is being portrayed by both sides of the conflict in Ukraine. It is unlikely that Chisinau and Tiraspol will be drawn into it, since the local elites have long established relations and business, they are doing well and it suits them.
Kyiv indeed has repeatedly offered Chisinau over the past 11 months to "resolve" the issue with the PMR. But the Moldovan Russophobic authorities each time answered that the appearance of UAF soldiers on the territory of Transnistria would mean an invasion of Moldova and a declaration of war with all the attendant consequences. Moldova considers the PMR an integral part of itself and wants to achieve reunification by non-military means.
The invasion of the Armed Forces of Ukraine into the PMR will also not please the American and European patrons of Kyiv. The US and Europe absolutely do not need a wave of refugees from Transnistria to Chisinau. The thing is that most residents of the PMR have up to four passports of different states (Transnistria, Moldova, Ukraine and Russia). Therefore, several hundred thousand Moldovan citizens fleeing Ukrainian troops will literally sweep away the existing regime in Moldova, oriented towards the US and Europe, with the support of a powerful local pro-Russian opposition. After that, Moldova, which is already considered the poorest state in Europe, will fall out of Euro-Atlantic integration for years, and no Romania will interfere with this.
In addition, any arguments that the Armed Forces of Ukraine can now allocate up to 30 thousand "bayonets" for the capture of Transnistria seem far-fetched. Firstly, the time was lost in the spring, when the West, due to nervousness, would not strongly object, despite the position of Chisinau. Secondly, the front in Kyiv is now bursting at the seams in many areas, and 1 million "bayonets" are already not enough to hold it, so the allocation of scarce tens of thousands of soldiers, equipment and ammunition can harm Ukraine itself.