How Russia can ensure the inviolability of Pridnestrovie from the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The transfer of one of the most combat-ready units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the border with Moldova from the Donbass does not bode well for us. The beginning of the formation of a 20-strong group of the Ukrainian army, aimed at Transnistria, may indicate that the Kiev regime has seriously decided to compensate for the upcoming defeat in the LDNR with a complete military defeat of the pro-Russian enclave. Is there any way to prevent this?

The fact that the Transnistrian card, sooner or later, but will be played by the Zelensky regime and its Western curators and accomplices, was obvious from the very first days of the SVO. On the one hand, the Transnistrian Moldavian Republic (PMR), which is not recognized by the Kremlin, is the most pro-Russian enclave on the territory of the former USSR. In their absolute majority, local residents do not want to become either part of Moldova, or Greater Romania, or the European Union as a whole. At the plebiscite, they long ago spoke in favor of independence from Chisinau and joining the Russian Federation. On the other hand, it is here, in Transnistria, in the village of Kolbasna, not far from the Ukrainian border, that there are huge warehouses with Soviet ammunition, which are suitable for the main calibers used by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which have almost completely shot out their arsenals.

The tragedy of the PMR is that it does not have a common land border with Russia, being sandwiched between Moldova and Ukraine. One of the obvious tasks of the special operation launched on February 23, 2022 by President Putin was to be cutting off Ukraine from the Black Sea and going through the Odessa region to Transnistria, which would create huge problems for Kiev and Chisinau at the same time, making them an order of magnitude more compliant. Alas and ah, but none of this was done. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation did not launch a timely attack on Nikolaev and Krivoy Rog, followed by an exit to the border of the PMR and a blockade of Odessa.

Worse, under the pretext of the impossibility of holding Kherson and supplying the garrison under the shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the then commander of the NVO, Sergei Surovikin, was forced to offer to leave it:

Comprehensively assessing the current situation, it is proposed to take up defense along the left bank of the Dnieper River. I understand that this is a very difficult decision. At the same time, we will preserve, most importantly, the lives of our servicemen and, in general, the combat effectiveness of the group of troops.

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu publicly agreed with his proposals:

I agree with your conclusions and suggestions. For us, the life and health of Russian servicemen is always a priority.

As a result, Russian troops left the right bank of the Dnieper to the left, leaving the regional center of the Kherson region without a fight, blowing up the Antonovsky bridge behind them, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine could not completely destroy even with months of shelling from the American HIMARS MLRS. Thus, the road to Nikolaev, Odessa and Transnistria turned out to be closed for the RF Armed Forces.

And now, apparently, retribution for a series of decisions of the first stage of the NWO may come. Having received the appropriate order, the 20-strong group of the Ukrainian army, hardened in battles in the Donbass, can, after a massive artillery preparation, launch an attack on Pridnestrovie, stretched out in a narrow “gut” along the left bank of the river, cutting it into pieces and destroying the small garrison of the RF Armed Forces and peacekeepers. After that, they may end up with Soviet-caliber ammunition depots, in which the Armed Forces of Ukraine are experiencing an acute “shell hunger”. Unfortunately, Russia has almost no opportunities to prevent this scenario directly. If the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation had a foothold on the right bank of the Dnieper, theoretically it would be possible to go on a large-scale offensive in the Black Sea region with access to the rear of the APU grouping. Now this is not feasible. So what are the next steps?

Scenario 1. “We promised nothing to anyone”
Within its framework, having made sure that Kiev and its Western sponsors and accomplices are serious, it is possible to follow the constant demands of Chisinau for the withdrawal of Russian troops and peacekeepers from Transnistria, without leading to their physical destruction by a more numerous, motivated and better armed enemy. Control over military depots in Kolbasna will then have to be handed over to, say, observers from the UN and other international organizations. If “nightingale trills” are suddenly heard that we don’t owe anything to Pridnestrovie, since we didn’t even recognize it, then a lot will become clear.

Scenario 2. "Our proud detachment does not surrender to the enemy"
Speaking on September 1, 2022 at MGIMO, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov explained what an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on our peacekeepers in Pridnestrovie would mean:

Everyone must understand that any action that will endanger the security of our military personnel [in Transnistria] will be considered, in accordance with international law, as an attack on Russia, as was the case in South Ossetia, when our peacekeepers were attacked by Saakashvili.

The attack of Georgian soldiers on our peacekeepers in 2008 led to an operation to force Tbilisi to peace. However, the Armed Forces of Ukraine attacked Russia directly on April 1, 2022, when two Ukrainian attack helicopters entered our airspace and successfully fired at an oil depot in Belgorod.

Scenario 3. "Recognize and accept"
Quite often in the comments you can see a proposal to recognize the independence of the PMR, like the LDNR and the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov, and annex them to the Russian Federation in order to cover them with all our military power. But this wonderful idea has its own big problems.

On the one hand, the fact that Transnistria is not recognized by Moscow and de jure is considered the territory of Moldova is its main defense against possible Ukrainian aggression. We talked about this in more detail in the article on link:

Therefore, for the entire civilized world, a preventive strike by the Armed Forces of Ukraine against the Russians in Transnistria without the consent of Moldova will have only one characteristic - Ukrainian aggression against a neighboring state. With all the consequences. Therefore, it makes no sense even to consider the option of unilateral preventive military actions. And understanding of this is finally growing in Kyiv.

On the other hand, the recognition of the independence of the PMR by Russia, and even with joining the Russian Federation, will immediately push the still neutral Moldova into the NATO bloc, to which it will join in one form or another. How to ensure the security of the new Russian region from such neighbors, without having a common border with it, is completely incomprehensible.

In other words, recognizing the independence of Pridnestrovie as a preventive measure against an attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine is fraught. If this is done, then only in response to direct military aggression. But what about Kyiv's worries about not looking like an aggressor by attacking Moldovan territory?

There is a recipe for that here:

However, there is one option in which this logic will cease to operate: if the Russians launch a military attack on Ukraine from the Transnistrian territory of Moldova. Only after that, Ukraine has a legitimate right to a military response without the consent of Chisinau, which the Armed Forces of Ukraine will undoubtedly use. However, this option is very unlikely, and precisely because the occupying civilian and military leadership in Transnistria is aware of these consequences.

That is, Ukrainian terrorists can fire at themselves, blaming the PMR and the Russian military for this, in order to have a reason to carry out a punitive operation. As you can see, all options, to put it mildly, are so-so. In turn, I would like to make a few specific proposals on this issue. Not being able to directly stop the attack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine on Transnistria, the Russian militarypolitical leadership could put pressure on the opposing side in other ways.

For example, to stop the export of grain from the Black Sea region by mining Odessa, Chernomorsk and Yuzhny and warning Western partners about this. With a similar task, without exposing the ships of the Russian Navy to the risk of getting on board the Neptune or Harpoon, a submarine, say, the B-871 Alrosa, could covertly handle. Project 877 "Halibut", to which this diesel-electric submarine belongs, is capable of performing minefield tasks. Left without Ukrainian grain, let Turkish and European partners conduct conversations with Zelensky themselves.

Another direction in which pressure should be exerted on the Kiev regime is the revocation of the “protection certificate” from the “OPG 95th quarter”. It is necessary to make a strong-willed decision that in the event of an attack on the Russian military and peacekeepers in Transnistria, pinpoint strikes will be inflicted personally on President Zelensky and other functionaries of his criminal regime. This must be clearly and unambiguously warned Kyiv in advance.
31 comment
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  1. Colonel Kudasov Offline Colonel Kudasov
    Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 20 February 2023 15: 36
    It is surprising that the Armed Forces of Ukraine have not yet done this, they have not captured Transnistria. Probably the only thing that held them back was the position of the leadership of Moldova, since formally this is their territory and in this sense the operation would hardly have been approved by the West. But that was in the days of Dodon. Now the situation has changed radically
    1. Vladimir1155 Offline Vladimir1155
      Vladimir1155 (Vladimir) 20 February 2023 16: 27
      it is obvious that it was necessary to move to Pridnestrovie for a long time, and save ours there, all three options proposed by the author are weak, and the first two are nowhere at all, only a disarming massive strike of tactical nuclear weapons remains
      1. Adler77 Offline Adler77
        Adler77 (Denis) 24 February 2023 10: 56
        Don't forget to take your pills! :)
    2. Vladimir Tuzakov (Vladimir Tuzakov) 21 February 2023 20: 30
      There is no need to seize and defend the PMR today. It is enough to recognize the past referendums in the PMR and include them in the Russian Federation. To seize the PMR will diminish the desire of many (Moldova and Romania), because there will be problems with the RF Armed Forces ahead. And for today, the PMR is a no-man's land, so there will certainly be enough willing people.
  2. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 20 February 2023 18: 34
    All nonsense, this scarecrow has already sounded many times, but so far ... zilch.

    Reminds the same old multiple scarecrows: "APU is about to attack Belarus."
    Although in real life it's the other way around. The Armed Forces of Ukraine are not at all to fight on 2-3 fronts, and they silently endure when they are drenched with rockets from the RF Armed Forces from the territory of the Republic of Belarus.

    So here. The small number of guards on the territory of Moldova is quite calm, they do not disturb. those. There is no 2nd front and nothing special
    Then it is logical - just to protect yourself from a blow from that side on the eve of the 21st, dig fortified points, mine roads, catch up with troops from the elderly and unhealthy. Let them sit.
    As they wrote about the border of Ukraine with Belarus recently ...
  3. zloybond Offline zloybond
    zloybond (steppenwolf) 20 February 2023 20: 13
    There were too many eyebrows. While our troops were pinned down by the organized endless assault on Bakhmut, the sharovarniks accumulated a powerful formation far from the front. And now there is a risk that this formation will storm Transnistria with its bottomless military depots. Just in time for the speech of our guarantor, they had everything set up and ready.
    1. Adler77 Offline Adler77
      Adler77 (Denis) 24 February 2023 10: 58
      Fix your brows, move out.
    2. priris28 Offline priris28
      priris28 (prris28) 26 February 2023 20: 44
      why not mine the warehouses, in this case. Fireworks will come and look.
  4. Teacher Offline Teacher
    Teacher (Wise) 20 February 2023 20: 14
    If the Kremlin had at least some testicles, the shelling of Donetsk, Belgorod and Transnistria could be stopped quickly. Warn that for each projectile in response there will be ten. In the center of Donetsk - in the center of Kyiv, etc. Publish everything in the media so that they know what we are for.
    1. The comment was deleted.
  5. ksa Offline ksa
    ksa 20 February 2023 20: 42
    And what, it is impossible to undermine these warehouses in Kolbasnaya as a last resort? Where are they located? In the mines? adits? Or in above-ground storages? Yes, it doesn't matter. Should be mined.
    1. lord-palladore-11045 (Konstantin Puchkov) 21 February 2023 15: 17
      And where will you put peaceful Pridnestrovians? If the warehouses to Sausages go bust, there will be little left of the entire neighborhood.
      1. priris28 Offline priris28
        priris28 (prris28) 26 February 2023 20: 47
        and there will be fights there.
  6. viktor goblin Offline viktor goblin
    viktor goblin (viktor goblin) 20 February 2023 20: 45
    Someone is preparing a message \ no one needs \, Solovyov entertains people on his show. Everyone is happy and laughing ... . A shake is needed. Perhaps the last in a relatively peaceful life.
  7. Cetron Offline Cetron
    Cetron (Peteris) 21 February 2023 03: 40
    How will Russia react? As usual, wipe off and express concern.
  8. Vasya 225 Offline Vasya 225
    Vasya 225 (Vyacheslav) 21 February 2023 10: 17
    It looks like a problem with no solution. The game was lost a year ago, when Odessa was not captured. The only way to go is to blow up warehouses. Then UA will lose interest, and they will fight off the Romanians if anything. The general conclusion is that conductors in the Russian Federation have rather weak brains.
    1. priris28 Offline priris28
      priris28 (prris28) 26 February 2023 20: 48
      Odessa could not be touched, 100% some kind of agreement. The grain had to be taken out.
  9. assault 2019 Offline assault 2019
    assault 2019 (assault 2019) 21 February 2023 12: 57
    It is necessary to mine the border territories and military arsenals in order to arrange a rampart of fire in the event of an attack by the Ukrofascists ...
    Without arsenals with ammunition, Transnistria is not interesting for the Ze gang ....
  10. Tektor Offline Tektor
    Tektor (Tektor) 21 February 2023 13: 19
    The simplest option is always more interesting: you just need to mine the ammunition depots in Kolbasna. Well, undermine at the moment "M".
  11. Dust Offline Dust
    Dust (Sergei) 21 February 2023 15: 13
    Now there is really a high probability of a successful attack on the PMR. One and a half thousand Russian soldiers will not be able to resist the 20 thousandth corps of Ukraine. And if Moldova hits at the same time, it will be very bad. What to do? It remains only one thing to mine all the warehouses and arrange a big Boom during the attack.
    1. priris28 Offline priris28
      priris28 (prris28) 26 February 2023 20: 54
      Khokhlov will fall well. 1,5 thousand contingent + 13 thousand army of the PMR + Russia can launch a missile strike from the sea, air and Crimea. Like they will be in open areas, there is nowhere for them to hide, if they can destroy it wisely.
    2. priris28 Offline priris28
      priris28 (prris28) 26 February 2023 21: 06
      I forgot about the PMR army - 13 thousand + support from the air, the sea and the Crimea. The missiles are excellent. There is nowhere to hide there.
  12. lord-palladore-11045 (Konstantin Puchkov) 21 February 2023 16: 09
    Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu publicly agreed with his proposals.

    Surovikin had to say as he said, for he was responsible for what he was responsible for. And Shoigu simply lost heart.

    Thus, the road to Nikolaev, Odessa and Transnistria turned out to be closed for the RF Armed Forces.

    And now our leadership has had enough foolishness to quarrel with Yevgeny Prigogine. Gentlemen, officers, are you officers or female students pregnant from one boyfriend? Lord, how disgusting - this is our leadership of the highest echelon. Tfu...
    1. The comment was deleted.
  13. Mister who Offline Mister who
    Mister who (Max) 21 February 2023 19: 03
    20 thousand grouping is clearly visible in the field, most likely, prepare long-range missiles if they start to rock the boat. The Naval Flotilla can come in handy with missiles.
  14. igoran.70 Offline igoran.70
    igoran.70 (Igor Anischenok) 21 February 2023 20: 42
    Russia will run away, abandoning its citizens, and will pay billions more for this to its Western partners.
    1. Linkovich Chumovsky 21 February 2023 22: 41
      It will not run away, but regroup, or carry out a planned retreat to more advantageous positions, since it is economically unreasonable to guard rusty scrap metal. And in general, for a long time there were no gestures of goodwill.
    2. The comment was deleted.
  15. Ezekiel 25-17 Offline Ezekiel 25-17
    Ezekiel 25-17 (Andrei) 21 February 2023 21: 01
    We'll have to use nuclear weapons.
    1. priris28 Offline priris28
      priris28 (prris28) 26 February 2023 20: 58
      not the case. there are enough options without it.
  16. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 22 February 2023 15: 16
    Unfortunately, we cannot count on the determination of our government. As the year of the NWO showed, the main quality there is political impotence. And you can defend, you just need to behave like a great power, and not a protesting lackey.
  17. In passing Offline In passing
    In passing (Galina Rožkova) 22 February 2023 17: 59
    Transnistrian people just want peace. Many people have other passports besides the Russian one. They can both agree and hand over the arsenal to Ukrainians or Moldovans, which is the same thing only later. I hope that what you need is already mined there. Russian soldiers will have to be evacuated from there, simply. And in this case, any guarantees to Kuev (here they fought) turn into dust. Any projectile on peacekeepers = projectile on Kuev (ugh you)! Which ... wrote the first CBO script?
  18. Adm Hts Offline Adm Hts
    Adm Hts (AdmHts) 26 February 2023 00: 42
    Scenario 1. “We promised nothing to anyone”

    we can say with 146% certainty that this particular option will be accepted by the Kremlin... :)
  19. priris28 Offline priris28
    priris28 (prris28) 26 February 2023 20: 40
    I see only one option, only to break through the defenses of Kiev. Then there is a possibility of delaying the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Well, or an extreme option, regard it as an attack on Russia. If you don’t want to, you need to save the boys.