Will the Russian economy be able to cope with a new wave of crisis?

February 19 2023 22

In the second half of February in the economy Russia again showed a number of negative trends. The exchange rate of the ruble entered another round of “negative growth”, reaching record levels since April 2022. At the same time, a new stage of price growth began, which is still not very noticeable from the point of view of the inhabitants, but has already hit the business sector quite seriously. Export earnings also continue to fall, leading to a record federal budget deficit that is now 14 times higher than in the same period last year.

All this cannot but cause serious concern. Despite external stability, most economists are forced to admit that our country's economy is on the verge of a serious crisis. And to be more precise, we have already entered this crisis with one foot, and we can only hope that it will wet us only up to the ankles. How does our government plan to deal with this, and what measures are being taken to prepare for the coming storm? Let's try to figure it out.

What's going on with the budget?

The data released by the Ministry of Finance in February 2023 was one of the most unflattering in recent years. Contrary to the claims of many officials that the government has everything under control, it turned out that in the first month of 2023, Russian budget revenues decreased by as much as 35% compared to the same period. At the same time, expenses, on the contrary, increased by more than half, as a result of which a hole in the treasury of our state amounted to a record 1,8 trillion rubles.

To understand the scale of what is happening, it is worth giving only one figure. The entire size of the budget deficit for 2023, according to the plans of the Ministry of Finance, is 2,9 trillion rubles. Those. the size of the January deficit has already amounted to 60% of the annual. Thus, if this trend continues, then by the end of the year the actual size of the deficit may exceed the planned one by 5-6 times. And if we add to this the growing volume of government spending and the continuing decline in export earnings, the picture may turn out to be very bleak.

In the Ministry of Finance itself, such high figures for the budget deficit do not particularly surprise anyone. Moreover, the head of the department, Minister Anton Siluanov, believes that everything is going according to plan and urges not to worry about this:

The budget deficit is not related to any global increase in spending. We expect a deficit of 2% of GDP this year. It is completely planned and does not cause any worries.

- the minister said.

According to other officials, the increase in the deficit was due to one-off factors, so the situation should stabilize in the coming months. One of these factors is the advance funding for certain items of government spending. In particular, we are talking about public procurement, which in January 2023 amounted to 1,3 trillion rubles. According to officials, in the future the influence of such factors will decrease, and therefore the deficit will no longer be so noticeable.

Despite all the hypnotic statements of the government, it is known that in order to solve the problem of the budget deficit, they have long and very actively used the “savings” in the form of the National Welfare Fund (NWF). At the end of last year, 1 trillion was taken from there to cover government spending, and at the moment, according to the Ministry of Finance, there are about 10,4 trillion. At the same time, a year ago, the size of the NWF was 13,6 trillion, which indicates a significant negative trend in Russian national savings. It is also important to remember that only about 6,3 trillion rubles fall into the category of liquid funds of the NWF, since the rest of the funds are invested in long-term investment vehicles and cannot be withdrawn so quickly.

The end of the oil and gas era?

As you know, one of the main reasons for the reduction in budget revenues is the decline in oil export revenues caused by the introduction of a price ceiling and other sanctions. At the beginning of this year, oil and gas revenues fell by about 28%, and this happened even before the introduction of EU sanctions against Russian oil products. Now, from February 5, another restriction came into force related to the ban on tanker deliveries of gasoline, diesel, kerosene and fuel oil from Russia to the EU. At the same time, a price ceiling was also introduced for the export of Russian oil products to third countries.

For Russia, this means a loss of at least 40% of income from the export of oil products. Experts predict that about half of this will be compensated by reorientation to other markets, including the domestic one. However, part of the production will still have to be reduced. At first, this effect will not be noticeable, since there are quite large storage facilities in our country. But after they are filled, some refineries will face the need to reduce output.

A similar situation awaits the sphere of oil production. Due to the decrease in exports, it has already become known about plans to reduce oil production in Russia by 500 thousand barrels per day in March. According to Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation Alexander Novak, this is a response to unfriendly steps on the part of the West, which should contribute to the restoration of market relations in the field of oil production. Potentially, this measure could also stimulate the growth of world oil prices and force Western countries to reconsider their policies towards Russia.

The ruble exchange rate as compensation for the reduction in oil revenues

In the context of all this, the currently observed growth of the ruble exchange rate can be considered not only as a natural market reaction to the oil embargo, but also as planned actions by the government and the Central Bank to compensate for the reduction in oil and gas revenues. For several years now, they have been guided by a similar logic, which makes it possible to increase the level of ruble income in the event of a fall in dollar revenue. According to many experts, this approach is extremely risky, as it has many negative side effects. However, from the point of view of financing current government spending, it is often justified.

Summing up, we can conclude that the current economic situation once again proves the need for decisive action on the part of our country. First of all, these actions should be aimed at defeating the enemy on the battlefield, because the prolongation of the current conflict plays into the hands of not only Ukraine, but also its Western masters. They are just counting on the fact that the sanctions imposed every month will worsen the economic situation more and more, provoking social discontent and reducing the financial stability of our state. Therefore, the general economic situation throughout the country will largely depend on the speed of solving the main problem on the eastern front.

Information

Dear reader, to leave comments on the publication, you must sign in.

Michael 68

+6

19 February 2023 10: 44

All the actions of our rulers indicate that they clearly know what they are doing. Their goal is to ruin and destroy Russia. All of them have children and wives with foreign citizenship. And what do you think that they will be against their children. Remember Luzhkov. Where is he. Abroad. Pesklov's entire family is foreigners. Poke at any of our ministers or deputy. He is a poor fellow in Russia on a business trip, away from his family. Therefore, it is absolutely unrealistic to expect any action from this government to strengthen Russia. Yes, we will hear a bunch of slogans. And we will see many cases that are supposedly needed for Russia. But in fact they are directed against. The war has already shown the true face of our power. And the further the degradation of the highest echelons of power is more noticeable.
1. trampoline instructor
  
  +1
  
  19 February 2023 22: 14
  
  Remember Luzhkov. Where is he. Abroad.
  
  If you are talking about Yuri Mikhailovich, then he died on December 19, 2019, and was buried at the Novodevichy cemetery.
Paul3390

+4

19 February 2023 11: 32

It was clear to a hedgehog - our authorities are satisfied with the ruble at least 80 per dollar ... Otherwise, the Right Boys are losing money, and this cannot be allowed. But - they did make a mistake, showing last spring that the course can easily be done at 60 or less. To do this, you need a little - to reduce rampant theft by banning the export of capital across the cordon.
1. trampoline instructor
  
  0
  
  19 February 2023 22: 17
  
  having shown last spring that the course can easily be done at 60 or less.
  
  With such a course, the budget of Russia is very unimportantly filled, and the posons (correct or incorrect) are not at all in business here.
steelmaker

+1

19 February 2023 14: 18

Think crisis. There were few of these crises. The problem is that the government does not want to change anything. She is good even during a crisis, but she raises good money even during a crisis. And when the money itself is a rod, who will think about the state, and even more so about the people!
I looked at the privatization plan in Russia for 2023 here. The robbery of the country continues at an accelerated pace. Those enterprises that are the most profitable for the state are privatized. Why doesn't the government need money? For 30 years, not a single oligarch in the country has built a single enterprise. We fight on Soviet galoshes. Our Central Bank is still investing a billion dollars in valuable US bonds.

after all, the prolongation of the current conflict plays into the hands of not only Ukraine, but also its Western masters.

Human greed has no limits. Therefore, NWO Putin will delay and delay. Unfortunately, our victory depends only on him. Money conquers the mind.
Vox_Populi

+1

19 February 2023 14: 59

Despite external stability, most economists are forced to admit that our country's economy is on the verge of a serious crisis. And to be more precise, we have already entered this crisis with one foot and one can only hopethat he will wet us only to the ankles

Yes ...

Summing up, we can conclude that the current economic situation once again proves the need for decisive action on the part of our country. First of all, these actions should be aimed at defeating the enemy on the battlefield, because the prolongation of the current conflict plays into the hands of not only Ukraine, but also its Western masters. They are just counting on the fact that the sanctions imposed every month will worsen the economic situation more and more, provoking social discontent and reducing the financial stability of our state. Therefore, the general economic situation throughout the country will largely depend on the speed of solving the main problem on the eastern front.

It's hard not to agree.
andreyserdtsev

+6

19 February 2023 16: 21

... the prolongation of the current conflict plays into the hands of not only Ukraine, but also its Western masters. They are just counting on the fact that the sanctions imposed every month will worsen the economic situation more and more, provoking social discontent and reducing the financial stability of our state.

I am afraid that the sanctions do not depend on the duration of the conflict, no one will cancel them.
Jacques sekavar

+3

19 February 2023 16: 57

It’s as if officials are not supposed to lie, and if they lie, then, due to the loss of trust, they should not be transferred to another managerial job, but brought to criminal responsibility without a statute of limitations and the ability to pay off real punishment in the form of bail and a receipt on their own recognizance
To begin with, at least ask those who rubbed about the ineffectiveness of sanctions and the inevitable rise in energy prices as a result of the embargo and price ceiling, the theft of the Russian gold reserves, economic cooperation with unfriendly state entities during the war, and the planned actions of the government and the Central Bank to compensate for the reduction in oil and gas revenues should be viewed as launching a printing press, inflating a financial bubble and spinning up inflation, which increases the level of ruble incomes but not the purchasing power of the ruble banknote.
Nelton

0

19 February 2023 17: 47

The economic situation once again proves the need for decisive action on the part of our country. First of all, these actions should be aimed at defeating the enemy on the battlefield.

The economic situation does not depend on the battlefield at all. (Unless, of course, it comes to yao).
Or does someone think that sanctions will be lifted from us when we enter the border with Poland?

one of the main reasons for the decline in budget revenues is the decline in revenues from oil exports

Similar to 1998, 2008, 2014, 2016, 2018...
Including everything else*, from the series
"Well, horror, but not horror! Horror!! Horror!!!".

*All the rest -
Components / spare parts / consumables for all Western equipment.
As long as it's normal.
But let's say the launch of a large ring metro in Msk is delayed. Evil tongues say that it is precisely because of the lack of Western components for equipment and wagons. This launch will be delayed longer and longer - it means that there really are problems.
Launch - so the problems are solved.

Imported seeds - something will be seen in the fall. There will be less than 120 million tons - it will be possible to attribute everything missing up to 120 to the effect of sanctions.

Metallurgy - while the statistics are published.
2022 sank relative to the record 2021, but held on to the usual 70+ million tons.
What will happen in 2023 - I hope they will publish more.
Vladimir1155

+1

19 February 2023 19: 41

surprised by the stupidity of the felts by the betrayal of our "economists" such as Siluanov Kudrin Nabulina, the fall in budget revenues cannot be caused either by sanctions, by the general world crisis, or even by a decrease in export revenues (by the way, why did they decrease? You need to figure out world prices are not falling, you need to check if there is a catch here), the reason for the decrease in budget revenues is the fall of the economy, the fall of the economy is caused by an increase in bankruptcies and the lack of prospects for opening production in Russia, the reason for this is the low profitability of Russian business, (therefore money is withdrawn abroad and offshore and no one wants to invest in Russia), but the reason for the low profitability of Russian business is obviously .. too high taxes and too high expenses for the officials who checked the extortionists!!!! This is the MAIN reason for the decline in production and mass bankruptcies ..... if this is not fundamentally changed, then production will continue to decline, by the way, these extortionists also sit on the budget, which is not enough, and for our money they deliberately spread rot on any production .... expenses for bureaucrats astronomical, all kinds of guardianship authorities, Rospotrebnadzor, fire supervision, GSN, and others gobble up all the money of the people, although they harm us for even greater amounts, the costs of bureaucrats of bribe takers and extortionists are comparable to half the costs of national defense, or law enforcement !!! ! or a quarter of social spending!, you need to throw harmful items out of the budget and there will be no budget deficit, and even the tax base will grow! investments will pour in, it will become unprofitable to withdraw money abroad, taxes in prosperous China are three times less than in the Russian Federation, and extortionists of officials are shot there
1. Vladimir80
  
  +1
  
  19 February 2023 23: 23
  
  Elya and Anton, as representatives of the financial authorities of the West in the Russian Federation, determine our fate - it is allowed to withdraw capital from the Russian Federation, it is not allowed to increase prosperity and reduce inflation. In general, as there were colonies since 91, we remain, our own did not help, so that the towers would not chat about sovereignty.
  1. trampoline instructor
    
    -1
    
    20 February 2023 06: 11
    
    - if you forbid the withdrawal of capital from the Russian Federation, then it's the same as trying to block the river with a shovel;
    - no one forbids any citizen of the Russian Federation to increase his "welfare": some of my neighbors already have 2 cars, many have one;
    - the same Elya or Anton often spoke about "targeting inflation." At least read what it is. Finally, no one has ever died from inflation itself;
    - have there been "colonies" since "91"? And why not from 85 years? At the same time, Minka Humpbacked became General Secretary, and Reagan and Thatcher elected him to the Politburo of the Central Committee of the CPSU
2. Nelton
  
  +1
  
  20 February 2023 09: 36
  
  Quote: vladimir1155
  the reason for the decline in budget revenues is the fall of the economy, the fall in the economy is caused by an increase in bankruptcies and the lack of prospects for opening production in Russia
  ...
  too high taxes and too high expenses for the officials who checked the extortionists!!!! This is the MAIN reason for the decline in production and mass bankruptcies.
  
  In this logic -
  in 2021, budget revenues grew (this is a fact), which means that the economy grew (the same fact), therefore, back in 2021, taxes and "checkers" did not affect the growth of the economy. And only since 2022 everything has changed dramatically ...
  1. Vladimir1155
    
    +2
    
    20 February 2023 19: 24
    
    over the past 30 years, all budget revenues have been growing due to the growth in world prices for resources, in 2021 there was indeed an increase in collection due to increased tax discipline, and immediately all these enterprises went bankrupt en masse, so it was under Khrushchev when meat production almost doubled in one year , they simply slaughtered breeding cattle, then naturally there was even less meat than before
Sergey Latyshev

+3

19 February 2023 21: 13

this is nonsense. All this is a struggle with the consequences, not with the cause.

At the same time, a new stage of price growth began, which is not yet very noticeable from the point of view of the inhabitants, but has already hit the business sector quite seriously.

From the point of view of the inhabitants, prices have been flying for a long time, perhaps ahead of both America and Europe.
They even feed the pigs with Ukrainian grain. And here, apparently, the grain is added directly to the sausage. You look, in the composition of any, except VIP. loads of carbs...

And the Course ... The quote of "export kings" has long been known. - "We (the oligarchs) will take our (surplus profits) in the domestic market (that is, in the wallets of the people)". That's the price increase. You need to buy real estate in Dubai for something .....
1. Nelton
  
  -1
  
  20 February 2023 10: 00
  
  Quote: Sergey Latyshev
  A course...
  
  They don't like the course.
  A year ago (the last peaceful days before the NWO) was 77, now 73 ...
  
  The main forecasts for "what will happen if sanctions of the Iranian level are imposed against the Russian Federation" were as follows - the exchange rate bounces two or three times (and so it began), after which it is fixed at a "fair" level with the abolition of the conversion. Hello Venezuela.
  
  That, in fact, there is only one more crisis in the country like 2016 or 2020, and so far much weaker than in 2014. From my point of view. - an unnoticed economic miracle.
  
  Yes, there are still a lot of unresolved problems and tasks, not all sanctions have yet manifested themselves in full force.
  All ill-wishers returned to their usual mantra that they say the Russian economy will collapse in 2 years from the current date.
  
  Will the Russian economy be able to cope with a new wave of crisis?
  I think that in the medium term, until ~2030, everything will not be so bad, and at least there will be extensive development. Housing and infrastructure construction, import localization and production growth.
  
  Here further, yes, the blocking of access to technological innovations may begin to affect.
trampoline instructor

+3

19 February 2023 22: 30

At the same time, a new stage of price growth began, which is not too noticeable from the point of view of the inhabitants, but it has already hit the business sector quite seriously.

I don’t know how it is with the business sector, but the increase in tariffs for housing and communal services has hit the townsfolk powerfully. And it hit so hard that I'll get used to these figures in the receipts for a communal apartment for a couple more months. Non-payments were already quite impressive, but now they will go to trillions of rubles on the scale of Russia. I was reassured somewhere - there will be no heating in the summer, so it will become easier; but even in the central regions of Russia, the heating season is from the beginning of October to the end of April, and the ruble-dollar exchange rate is generally up to the ass for the vast majority of the population.
1. Vladimir80
  
  0
  
  19 February 2023 23: 26
  
  Because the agents of the West in the financial circles of Russia have been tasked with increasing inflation, and therefore the increase in tariffs is higher than the official level of inflation ...
  1. trampoline instructor
    
    +5
    
    20 February 2023 06: 32
    
    - And who has been appointing these "agents of the West" to their positions for decades? they are also given orders "For Merit to the Fatherland".
    - if agents were tasked with "increasing inflation", then after February 2022 and the dollar for 130 rubles in March-April last year, banknotes of 50, 100 and 500 thousand rubles would have been printed long ago.
    - something your fabrications do not fit with reality. Apparently, you are deliberately slandering and discrediting here, for which you need to be sent to Kolguev Island
1_2

+1

20 February 2023 00: 25

in 22, they exported 250 billion, let's say most of it went to the purchase of imports, but the influx of foreign currency was 2 times more. why then naibulina lowers the ruble exchange rate? maybe she is thus fulfilling the orders of the USA - weakening the ruble, that is, raising prices, and this is already a reason to raise the discount rate of the Central Bank. thus the people become impoverished, and business goes bankrupt due to falling demand and expensive loans
Vladimir1155

+2

20 February 2023 09: 28

Quote: trampoline instructor
At the same time, a new stage of price growth began, which is not too noticeable from the point of view of the inhabitants, but it has already hit the business sector quite seriously.

I don’t know how it is with the business sector, but the increase in tariffs for housing and communal services has hit the townsfolk powerfully. And it hit so hard that I'll get used to these figures in the receipts for a communal apartment for a couple more months. Non-payments were already quite impressive, but now they will go to trillions of rubles on the scale of Russia. I was reassured somewhere - there will be no heating in the summer, so it will become easier; but even in the central regions of Russia, the heating season is from the beginning of October to the end of April, and the ruble-dollar exchange rate is generally up to the ass for the vast majority of the population.

the increase in utility tariffs is the consequences of bureaucratic extortion, it is necessary to disperse supervision, for example, in St. Petersburg there is a GATI, they wrote the rules for landscaping as thick as the Talmud, the grass should be from 10 to 12 cm, and at whose expense, it is clear that in order not to pay fines, the UK is forced to mow the grass, and in Soviet times, no one would have thought to cut the grass, then the fire supervision comes and demands the installation of smoke exhaust systems, there is no point in them if the house is of the first degree of fire resistance and the stairs are led out through the balconies, but you are OBLIGED not only to install but also to conclude an agreement with an organization that has a license and pay it every month, at the expense of the residents, of course, you put the meter on water or heat, sealed it, but you are obliged to conclude an agreement with the organization that bought a license from bureaucrats to service (???) this meter ... and so on in the same vein ... well, any management company is an entrepreneur, that is, it must regularly pay bribes to dozens of trustees of various stripes who wrote regulations so that it was always possibleto find a violation, For example, in our country ALL freight transportation is prohibited !!!!????....., if you follow the regulations, then you can close no income is enough, that is, they regularly pay off bureaucrats if you want to carry oversized, (and note that now it’s just a car wider than 2.80 m) pay state duty to extortionists from the federal road agency, and they receive a duty and refuse without explanation, or rather motivate that there is a computer failure) pay again ..... and how to transport goods?
1. ira
  
  -1
  
  23 February 2023 01: 03
  
  corruption and again corruption is our past, present and future. If nothing has been done in 20 years, then why should it be done now ???-(((((((((((((