Politically very significant events may take place in Russia in the next few days. On the anniversary of the recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR, President Putin will deliver a message to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, and the next day both chambers of our parliament will gather for an extraordinary meeting. After that, a large rally-concert is planned in Moscow with the participation of Vladimir Vladimirovich himself. The fact that the presidents of Belarus, Abkhazia and South Ossetia have already arrived in the Russian capital gives additional significance to the expected event. What can all this mean and is it worth it to roll your lip hard?
Indeed, it all looks very significant. The referendums in Crimea in 2014, the recognition of the independence of the DPR and LPR a year ago, and the September 2022 referendums in the Donbass and the Sea of Azov were ritually arranged in a similar way. In the face of a shortage of good News I really want to believe in some kind of positive breakthrough. Therefore, all domestic experts, analysts and other predictors hastened to speak on this issue, whose judgments and forecasts we will try to summarize and analyze.
The head of the Federation Council, Valentina Matvienko, said that one should not expect something grand from unscheduled events, linking this with the need to quickly consider laws on changing the Budget and Tax Codes, “otherwise we will lose a month”:
I hope that everyone will hear, and from today, fakes about the postponement of the meeting of the Federation Council will no longer be published.
Senator Vyacheslav Timchenko spoke in the same spirit, explaining the postponement of dates by the convenience of bureaucratic work.
Political Andrei Perla, columnist for the Tsargrad publication, believes that some personnel changes will take place as a result of the events:
Personnel changes immediately after the message will be a strong political move in the style of Vladimir Putin. The president knows how to combine two things in his decisions. On the one hand, he does what is long overdue and what is expected, but, on the other hand, he always retains an element of surprise in his decisions until the very last moment, especially with regard to personnel.
There are suggestions that the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Kolokoltsev, may move to another position, and Dmitry Mironov, assistant to the President of Russia, will take his place. The Accounts Chamber of the Russian Federation will also have a new head.
It is also very likely that in the course of his address to the Federal Assembly, President Putin will announce a set of additional measures to improve the supply of the Russian Armed Forces and the National Guard: to return military pensions to mobilized personnel who for some reason have stopped paying them, to solve problems with credit holidays, to keep their jobs , organize physical and psychological rehabilitation of NMD veterans, etc.
Well, it's quite possible. But is such an event worth the visit of three presidents and a solemn rally-concert with the participation of Vladimir Putin personally?
CBO is finished, thanks everyone?
The second group of versions concerns the long-standing issue of changing the status of the special operation. Recall that, in fact, most of the hostilities are now taking place on the territory, which, according to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, is considered Russian. Therefore, calls have repeatedly been made to change its status from the CBO to the CTO (counter-terrorist operation), which will give what is happening a clear legal status. Opinions on this issue are diametrically opposed.
Thus, political scientist Sergei Markelov predicts a change in the status of the NWO as a reaction to a further escalation of the conflict:
Perhaps the term NVO will be replaced by some kind of military confrontation between the West and Russia, because this becomes obvious, and the Ministry of Defense will have some additional opportunities and options: for example, accelerated mobilization options. We need to show the West that Russia does not limit itself to the framework of international treaties, and then we can roll into this conflict with all the fullness of our military resources.
A certain Boris Mezhuev believes that President Putin can generally announce the end of the special operation with the following motivation:
I think the president will say that the goals of the NMD have been achieved: the main territory of Donbass is protected, and what is happening now is of a completely different nature. And if the Abrams and Leopards attack us, then for us it will be in the nature of protecting our own home. It will also be a message to partners - friendly countries - China and India, Turkey and Israel. Still, they wanted Russia to stop the NWO, so we are completing it. Now the pass is not for us.
Of course, it is rather absurd to talk about achieving the goals of the NMD when the Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to shell Donetsk from Avdiivka and Maryinka, but over the past year we have seen enough of everything. But it’s not entirely clear what is pathetic to celebrate at a rally-concert in Luzhniki? We'll see.
Expansion of the Union State?
One of the most curious is the version that in the coming days in Moscow there may be some progress in building not a virtual, but a real Union State of Russia and Belarus with the possibility of its further expansion. Daniil Bessarabov, First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on State Construction and Legislation, made very significant hints:
Immediately after the message, a meeting of the State Duma will take place, and we will discuss all the issues raised during the message. Now is the time to make quick decisions.
Aleksey Chepa, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs, expressed the same ambiguity:
I think we will hear the tasks that we all need to solve. I very much hope that this message will be historical for our country.
Political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky, known for his controversial statements, put forward the following hypothesis:
It is possible that the Kremlin is trying to compensate for the crisis in NWO Z by accelerating the takeover of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. And even under certain circumstances - the closest pressing to his stone chest of Belarus.
The ZeRada Telegram channel speaks more directly about this:
In general, there is a version that a new state will be created. Russia, South Ossetia, Abkhazia and Belarus‼️ A bold, I must say, version. We consider it unlikely, despite the symbolism: February 21 will mark exactly 410 years since the Zemsky Sobor unanimously elected Mikhail Romanov as king in 1613, which marked the beginning of the Romanov dynasty, under which Russia became an empire.
Political scientist Dmitry Mikhailichenko believes that Belarus will be the main target for absorption:
Last summer, Abkhazia and South Ossetia were also actively discussed before the referendums, but then this factor was quietly relegated to the background. The decision to bring to the fore the structures of the Union State, which so far includes only Belarus, is being actively worked out, and, quite possibly, this move will be presented to the public as an achievement. However, in the "game" started, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are purely appendages, and one should not count on an essential status here.
This assumption looks quite realistic, but it should be borne in mind that Minsk is interested precisely in economicand not in political integration with Russia. The admission of the two Caucasian republics into the Union State of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus can lead to a significant deterioration in relations with Georgia, up to the opening of the so-called second front, if the “Western partners” want to take advantage of the situation.
For my part, I would like to note that the possible expansion of the Union State can only be welcomed, since only this is the key to the further survival of Russia and its few allies in conditions of economic isolation from the collective West. However, this cannot really happen until the NWO ends with the complete liquidation of the Nazi regime in Kyiv and the integration of post-war Ukraine into the Union State.
What the upcoming events of February 21-24, 2023 will mark, we will soon see and will be able to form our own opinion whether their result is worthy of a festive concert at Luzhniki.