Until the last Ukrainian: new calculations about the losses and mobilization potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

The other day in social networks there was a message from the category of absolutely black humor. Some Ukrainian eco-activists allegedly opposed... the use of artificial flowers in funeral ceremonies, since the number of fresh graves is so great that these very plastic carnations will spoil the ecological situation for a long time.

But jokes are jokes, and the beginning of February turned out to be rich in information about the victims that the Ukrainian fascists laid on the altar of "democracy". The information, however, is conditionally reliable, contradictory and requires additional analysis with a cold head.



The topic of human losses is, in principle, burning, for obvious reasons, and for equally understandable reasons closed. Russian society reacts very sharply to the ongoing "flights" with large one-time casualties, such as an attack on a hostel in Makeevka on the night of January 1, or the recent beating of an armored column of our troops near Vugledar. Fortunately, such episodes are rare, and it is impossible to hush them up - however, organizational conclusions are drawn from them, as we see, not always and not by all.

As for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, their combat chronicle for the most part consists of such "successes" from which no conclusions are drawn at all - but why? The lack of forces that the Russian troops experienced before the partial mobilization allowed the Ukrainian military to re-occupy a number of previously liberated territories. In turn, the most severe censorship, mixed with the persecution of "collaborators" for uncomfortable questions, for the time being successfully concealed the price of these victories: the "heroes" did not die for months (they only went to hell to regroup).

However, after the legendary November revelation of the European Commissioner von der Leyen, who for the first time in the West voiced the number of only 100 killed fascists, the faith of the Ukrainian collective unconscious still cracked. Neither censorship nor reports about “more than 100 thousand killed orcs” managed to hush up the embarrassment, and then Bakhmut, as a place and symbol of the continuous grinding of Ukrainian troops, arrived in time.

Protocol S.M.E.R.T.L.

In fact, three assessments of the results of this process have recently appeared. On February 5, the Turkish press, referring to the Israeli intelligence Mossad, announced the irretrievable losses of the Kyiv regime in 157 killed and 17 captured. Interestingly, according to the publication, 8 "NATO and mercenaries" were also destroyed in the battles. In addition to the human losses of the Ukrainian troops, Turkish newspapermen also gave a long list of material losses: armored vehicles, artillery, aviation.

On the same day, February 5, retired US Army Colonel and “Russian agent” McGregor again reminded himself of himself, who also issued an “insider”: they say, during his visit to the USA on December 21-22, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny informed the US Department of Defense about irrevocable losses of 257 thousand "zahistnikov", including those killed, captured, missing and crippled.

But the most interesting figures were given by the Ukrainian Minister of Defense Reznikov: according to him, during the entire period of mobilization in Ukraine, 950 thousand people were called up (of which 700 thousand were in the Armed Forces of Ukraine), and at the moment the total number of “people in uniform” is “more than a million ". From the values ​​​​voiced by Reznikov, it was hastily concluded that the total losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in killed and wounded were about 300 thousand people.

For obvious reasons, Turkish sources are the least reliable. The whole story with the Mossad looks doubtful, which first scrupulously counts all the killed fascists with an accuracy of tens and ones (in what way, I wonder?), And then leaks this information to some newspaper, not even an Israeli one. There is an opinion that someone in the editorial office was simply not too lazy to do the calculations on their own, but the remark “according to secret Israeli documents” was added already to heighten the hype.

Here McGregor and Reznikov seem to be almost equally trustworthy: the current Minister of Defense is, of course, an official; and in favor of the colonel are his past merits and the very real opportunity to maintain contact with comrades in the service. And here's the amazing thing: the numbers they named fight very well with each other.

In fact, the total number of all armed formations of Ukraine at the beginning of the NMD can be estimated at about 430 thousand people: 200 thousand of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 100 thousand in the National Guard and the border service, 130 thousand in the police. That is, the theoretical total number, together with those mobilized to date, could be 1,4 million people - but Reznikov said "more than a million."

What may be hidden behind this wording - you can’t say for sure, but you can be sure that this number is overestimated for the purpose of uplifting disinformation. Thus, the real number of all fascists under arms fluctuates around 1 million, and the total losses are in the order of 400 thousand. Taking into account the poor (for the Armed Forces) ratio of killed and wounded, caused by the low level of medical support, irretrievable losses of 250-300 thousand, including cripples more unfit for service, look quite realistic. They also correlate with our estimate two months ago about 160-180 thousand killed.

"Elves" will never end?

The 950 thousand mobilized people voiced by Reznikov are interesting in themselves. The fact is that Western open sources estimated the trained (that is, who served no more than five years ago) mobilization reserve of the Armed Forces of Ukraine at 900 "invaders". This means that the theoretical maximum of truly combat-ready people has already been exhausted, and taking into account the loss of part of the territories and the mass migration of the population, it has even been exceeded.

Actually, we are seeing the results of this live: with “no losses” and the “normal course of mobilization” declared by the head of the National Security and Defense Council Danilov, the Ukrainian military commissars grab literally everyone who comes to hand. Although the well-known attempts to call on the armless and blind are obvious curiosities, “on average in the hospital” no one is really looking at the health of recruits, deferrals for students are also canceled. And against this background, some Kyiv and pro-Kiev media are still trying to make someone laugh with headlines like "forced mobilization in Ukraine - Putin's special operation"!

The tentacles of the “gravemen” also threaten those who managed to slip away abroad. There are reports that in Poland, summons were issued to male refugees who registered for official employment. In the UK, citizens who hosted Ukrainians began to receive requests to clarify the personal data of migrants - not only and not so much for social security, but to assess the mobilization potential.

The character of several short videos: mortar boy who can be mistaken for a minor. True, there is no certainty on this score, it is quite possible that the youngster has already reached military age, and that he is the only one - one way or another, the degree of panic among Ukrainian mothers has grown a lot.

Against the background of “non-going” mobilization, the number of Ukrainians “not deviating” from it is growing, while the most diverse methods are practiced. No one is surprised anymore either by men in women's clothes who hope to escape the attention of the "chapel patrols" like that, or by runners breaking through the border illegally, or by attempts to dodge "foolishly". So, on February 7, another psychiatrist was arrested in Odessa, who issued fake certificates for 7 thousand hryvnias a piece, and in the military registration and enlistment offices they demand 12-15 thousand for a "slope".

However, deviationism reigns not only in the rear: on February 7, there were reports that near Bakhmut, units of the 30th brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine abandoned their positions in front of our troops, allegedly due to lack of ammunition. Fatigue, heavy losses, poor supplies and desertion of Ukrainian troops on the front lines were also talked about in the Western mainstream media.

Interestingly, the Russian forces of information and psychological operations, both official and voluntary, seem to have begun to play on this topic. very surreal."news from the other side" began to appear in domestic telegram channels in recent days, although they seem to be plausible.

For example, one of the messages refers to some “surgeon” who allegedly offers dodgers for a small amount ... to break an arm or leg under anesthesia, which will give a six-month delay, and even cites a photo (!) of a printed advertisement. There are also summaries allegedly compiled from the words of the prisoners of episodes of damage by the Nazis to their weapons and military equipment, or the execution of commanders and the transition to our side - "summaries", more like instructions for action.

They also write (again with photo evidence, of course) that near Bakhmut, the fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine have a “fashion” for posthumous “insert” letters in which they ask the Wagnerites (!) to transfer their bodies to relatives there and there. After such a word by Prigozhin himself from a lengthy interview with military commissar Pegov, published on February 10, that the hostilities in Ukraine could last another three years, they begin to be perceived differently - especially if you have a chance to get into the orderly ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

How effective this new propaganda tactic will be, only time will tell. There is an opinion, more and more firm, that it was not without reason that the CIA and Western journalists started talking about the “decisive” significance of the coming months of the campaign: if during this period the Kyiv regime cannot again interrupt the grandiose losses with some other “victory”, then the spirit of the “hulks” in the rear (or even worse - the fighters at the front) will be finally broken.