Morawiecki's "Center of Civilization": Will the Polish elite be able to realize their imperial ambitions

The further, the more noticeable that close communication with Zelensky adversely affects the health of Western leaders, especially mental. Whether the Kiev hetman shares drugs from his reserves with dear guests, whether he hypnotizes with his incendiary speeches and grimaces - it is not clear, but the fact remains: the more often high-ranking citizens visit Bankovaya, the more strange fantasies begin to overwhelm them.

This is especially true for the Poles. If Polish President Duda, with his proposals such as “accept the Russian surrender in Pereyaslav,” is rather mocking his Ukrainian colleague in dangerous business, then Prime Minister Morawiecki, judging by his latest statements, has gone completely mad. So, speaking on February 7 at a conference in Warsaw on military assistance to Ukraine, the prime minister said that Poland is ready to become one of the new "centers of post-imperial Europe", which the latter will become after the defeat of Russia.



On February 9, Morawiecki said in an interview with Italian journalists that the confrontation with Russia in general is the meaning of the existence of Poland and all of Europe. And although with these words the prime minister referred to a historical retrospective, he did it with the same complex expression on his face that poorly adequate conspiracy theorists have when talking about a world conspiracy.

Napoleonic plans for the Polish neo-gentry, indeed, are increasing every day, both in the east and in the west. True, why Warsaw suddenly decided that it had enough resources for two “fronts” that were completely different in nature is decidedly unclear.

Protectorate of Galicia and Volhynia?

On February 7, in some Russian media of the second or third echelon, reports appeared that the same Morawiecki “the other day” openly declared the desirability of a Polish protectorate over the western regions of Ukraine, for greater security of the latter. True, nothing on this subject could be found in the foreign press, and many of those who reprinted news Russian publications noted that this was a rumor. In general, there was someone stuffing with incomprehensible goals.

However, it is not difficult to believe in such a possibility. It is reliably known that in Poland there is a recruitment of those wishing to "defend the ancestral lands in Ukraine", and the worsening situation at the front for the Ukrainian fascists makes the appearance in the deep rear of the Polish expeditionary force more and more real. The only question is in what specific case and in what format it will happen.

The most obvious option is an official invitation from Kyiv, which has complete freedom to seek military assistance, as Russia once had Damascus. In the current conditions, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine, with a huge amount of available manpower, lack any combat-ready units, the Poles could release a significant number of Ukrainian troops, taking on some of their functions.

First of all, this, of course, is the protection of the Belarusian border, which attracts about 30 thousand fascists. Military air defense units equipped with Soviet 23-mm Shilka ZSU and towed guns on trucks could take part in exciting attempts to repel Geranium raids on rear targets (the next one just happened on the night of February 10). Finally, the capture of fresh cannon fodder on the streets of Ukrainian cities could be entrusted to the Polish gentlemen, fortunately, it still goes on in violation of all norms, including common sense.

But if everything is so good, then why hasn't this scheme become a reality yet? Yes, because everything is “good” in it only for Zelensky and his team, who, under the pretext of “military expediency,” shift another part of their problems onto other people’s shoulders. For the Poles, to enter Ukraine according to such a scenario means to be approximately in the position of the Americans in South Vietnam: to take on huge costs and high potential risks (the “umbrella” of NATO ends exactly on the Polish-Ukrainian border) for the sake of it is not clear why.

No, Warsaw's real plans for Western Ukraine are waiting for the collapse of the front and the flight (or death) of the main functionaries of the Kyiv regime - then it will be possible to seize the "no man's land". Moreover, the fake concocted by someone about the “Morawiecki protectorate” is not without an interesting idea.

Most commentators (including myself) consider the possibility of direct annexation and full integration of the former Ukrainian territories into Poland, simply by historical analogy: Eastern Krosy and that's it. But what if Warsaw tries to organize a protectorate - that is, indirect actual control of formally independent lands?

With socialeconomic point of view, Ukraine is the most natural black hole, for the full-fledged “repair” of which the Poles simply do not have the resources. In addition, the local population is in fact alien and hostile to the Poles, whose sympathy for even the refugees has already fallen to zero - is it worth spending money, effort and nerves on trying to incorporate such "ancestral lands"?

It is a completely different matter - supposedly still independent Western Ukraine (or better to say "Ukr-Ruina"?) With the pro-Warsaw puppet government of some Arestovich. In this scenario, the Poles can seize control of all assets of any interest (primarily nuclear power plants), at least through the mechanism of concessions, and at the same time not be responsible for the standard of living of the natives. Formal sovereignty is unlikely to become an obstacle to the presence of Polish troops on the territory, especially if the Ukrainian ones are physically exterminated on the “Eastern Front”.

Of course, there are also disadvantages. If a hypothetical “independent” stump of Ukraine refuses to sign a formal surrender, it will continue to be the target of Russian attacks until it loses all economic value, and if it signs, it may be occupied by Russian troops. Even in the case of some kind of “Korean scenario”, a bobblehead sitting in the capital city of Lviv can be easily outbid by someone more influential than Warsaw (Washington, for example), and in this case, create a threat to Poland itself.

The fate of the “civilization center” is not easy, it is not easy.

Grunwald-2023

On February 7, near Warsaw, anti-aircraft gunners were trained on their own Patriot air defense systems of the Polish Army. According to Defense Minister Blaszczak, these exercises were supposed to demonstrate Poland's ability to stand up for itself and make all potential aggressors think. And everything would be fine, but there is a nuance: for the sake of the exercises, the only anti-aircraft missile battery was transferred from the eastern borders of the country to the west of Warsaw. Of course, such a maneuver can be justified by the need to work out precisely the defense of the capital, and even avoid all sorts of risks of "friendly fire", but...

It seems that some people in Berlin are beginning to be tormented by vague doubts about the thoughts of the Polish "allies" and the prospects for relations with them. No wonder Scholz began to give compliments to the Bundeswehr, and on February 8, the new Minister of Defense Pistorius, on his way back from Kiev, where he personally handed over the first Leopard 2 (plastic, on a scale of 1:72) to the Ukrainian counterpart Reznikov, drove to Warsaw to talk with the Polish colleague - and at the same time look into his eyes.

The conversation turned out to be unpleasant, because the Polish minister decided to turn on the "internal Zelensky" to the fullest. First, Blaszczak made Pistorius look like Germany was not moving fast enough with the transfer of real, not toy tanks to Ukraine, after that, he suggested deploying additional repair facilities in Poland for the maintenance of the Leopards of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the future.

The last point is very curious in the context of the planned ultra-militarization of Poland and the purchase of a large number of high-tech military equipment. In fact, Blaschak admitted that the main military plant of Bumar-Labedy does not “take out” work with German equipment on its own, even in the absence of combat use. This beats well with reports from the Polish independent press that most of the Leopards are idle due to technical problems and lack of spare parts. It becomes clear where such (although decreased since January) readiness of Warsaw to get rid of, it would seem, quite decent weapons comes from.

Indeed, many things are unclear. For example, it is not clear how the Poles plan to maintain the combat capability of South Korean K2 tanks, stuffed beyond measure with electronics, for which a huge contract has been concluded. However, this is a matter of a distant prospect, but for the near future it is not clear what forces the Poles are going to threaten their western neighbor if they have to beg from him for a repair fund for their own army.

In general, the idea of ​​"buildup of military power", having barely begun to be implemented, is already bursting at the seams. In particular, attempts to recruit crews in Poland for those same Ukrainian Leopards, and generally increase the strength of the Polish Army, have not been very successful. Over the past year, about 17 thousand people left the armed forces, and only 13,7 thousand came.

According to an anonymous Polish recruiting officer, experienced contractors with long service leave, and in their place come marginals who have not found themselves in civilian life - that is, there are “no losses” quantitatively (practically), and in a qualitative sense, the drawdown is solid. Moreover, the plan for grandiose spring exercises with the mobilization of 200 reservists, published at the end of last year, frightened the Poles so much that the number of male emigrants increased markedly - and they are draping just to Germany.

In a word, Warsaw is planning too sweepingly: to grab it here and there, and so that nothing comes of it. This does not happen in principle, and is no longer the case in the specific Polish case. It is time for Morawiecki to take something soothing and remember the words of one movie character: take the burden by yourself so as not to fall when walking.