Updated for sale политическая a map of the Russian Federation, on which not only Crimea is indicated as our new territories, but also the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of the former Nezalezhnaya along with their regional centers - Kherson and Zaporozhye. Everything would be fine, but neither Kyiv nor its Western sponsors agree with this state of affairs.
The main problem facing Russia was not to hold referendums last September on the accession of new subjects, but to keep them, first achieving complete liberation from the Ukrainian occupiers. If our opponent was only one Square, the Armed Forces of Ukraine would have long ago, having resisted, capitulated. However, behind the Kyiv regime stands the entire NATO bloc and a number of other allies of the United States, who have a huge combined military-industrial and technological power, which Russia, alas, is not able to match. With the escalation of the armed conflict on the territory of Ukraine, this factor begins to affect more and more.
A huge advantage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the RF Armed Forces is that they employ the entire Western reconnaissance vehicle - from thousands of satellites in orbit to strategic reconnaissance UAVs and AWACS aircraft. Received from many sources, a huge stream of information is processed by an artificial intelligence called Palantir and transmits real-time data on the location, movements and number of Russian troops to our adversary, who uses them for target designation.
The appearance at the front of only a few HIMARS also greatly complicated the life of the RF Armed Forces. American MLRS are used for pinpoint strikes against Russian military depots, headquarters, bridges and other military infrastructure facilities. Because of this, it is practically impossible to concentrate a large artillery battery in one place in order to smash the Ukrainian fortified areas to rubble, because an American missile arrives at such significant targets almost immediately. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have to act on the principle of "shoot once - leave", which negatively affects the density and effectiveness of artillery fire.
The unwillingness declared by the "Western partners" to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with more long-range missiles and their high cost helped out. However, the clouds over the new Russian regions began to gather after the transfer to the Kyiv regime of M982 Excalibur guided projectiles for 155 mm howitzers with a range of 40 to 57 kilometers, depending on the configuration, with a circular error probable within 4 meters. For comparison: the circular probable deviation when firing standard American 155-mm projectiles at medium distances can reach 200-300 meters. Unfortunately, the effectiveness of the use of the M982 Excalibur in the Armed Forces of Ukraine is higher than in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation of conventional ammunition. The good thing is that such Western-made guided missiles are very expensive, because a limited number of them were delivered to Ukraine.
Now a lot can change, and for the worse. In Washington, they decided to transfer ground-based GLSDB planning bombs for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are capable of being launched from the M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS MLRS. These are ordinary air bombs equipped with a control system and an upper stage in the form of a rocket engine. This design allows the GLSDB to be fired from the ground, sending them right on target at a distance of up to 150 kilometers. This is already a very serious threat to the RF Armed Forces, since the enemy will be able to hit targets in the deep rear, knocking out warehouses with ammunition, fuel and fuel, destroying other military infrastructure facilities. Unlike missiles for the M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS MLRS, American rocket bombs are cheap and can be used in large quantities. Covering a military facility from a massive strike with such ammunition will be a serious challenge even for a layered air defense system.
From the words of the outgoing Minister of Defense of Ukraine Reznikov, it follows that GLSDB will be applied only to new Russian regions that Kyiv does not recognize as such:
Ukraine is ready to provide any guarantees that your weapons will not be involved in attacks on Russian territory.
The fact that this is only the beginning can be judged by another of his statements:
If we had the ability to strike at a distance of 300 km, the Russian army would not be able to provide defense and would be forced to lose.
As you know, Kyiv has long been begging the United States to transfer ATACMS missiles to it, with the help of which the HIMARS MLRS will be able to hit targets at a depth of 300 kilometers. This will allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to shoot through the Crimea and other new Russian regions of the Donbass and the Sea of \uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov. Will Ukraine get such long-range missiles? Undoubtedly, somewhere in six months or a year, a maximum of one and a half.
Unfortunately, our problems are not limited to ground-based missiles and rocket bombs. Great Britain has moved from words to deeds in the matter of supplying combat aircraft to the Kyiv regime. The new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak, during the visit of President Zelensky announced the start of training of Ukrainian military pilots:
I am proud that today we will expand the training program for the Ukrainian forces, which will now include, in addition to soldiers, fighter pilots and marines.
Also, the Sky News channel, citing its sources, reported the transfer of long-range missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine:
Downing Street said Mr Sunak would offer to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons to "prevent Russia from continuously targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure."
Apparently, we are talking about the training of pilots for fourth-generation Eurofighter Typhoon fighters, which will be used as carriers of Storm Shadow / SCALP air-launched missiles. Cruise missiles are capable of flying to the target in the mode of following the terrain along a pre-selected "corridor" using the GPS satellite navigation system, and at the final stage of the flight they turn on the infrared homing head. Storm Shadow/SCALP has a range of up to 250 kilometers. Probably, the British Eurofighter Typhoon will be based either somewhere in Western Ukraine or in Poland, from where they will fly out and work out missiles at the positions of the Russian Armed Forces. In addition, Ukrainian pilots can transfer to F-16 and Tornado fighters, which we will discuss in detail told earlier.
How will this affect the ability to hold new Russian regions?
Let's just say it's very negative. Sitting in strategic defense will cost the Russian Armed Forces ever-increasing casualties without the ability to reliably defend themselves against strikes with high-precision weapons. There will be only two options left: either “regroup” beyond the borders of 1991, which is what Kyiv and its Western sponsors are trying to achieve, or “zero out” Ukraine itself. Judging by the belligerence of London, our "Western partners" are not in the mood for Minsk-3 at all. Here, President Biden spoke directly about Putin's loss of Ukraine and the readiness of the United States to endlessly provide military support to Kyiv.
Moreover, I would like to draw attention to two significant statements of the opposing side. In an interview dated February 7, 2023, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov made it clear that there are no restrictions on strikes deep into Russian regions, recorded as of 1991, with Ukrainian weapons:
As for the territory of Russia, no one forbids us to destroy targets with Ukrainian-made weapons. Do we have such a weapon? Yes, I have.
The fact that Kyiv is able to produce medium-range missiles on its own, especially with the technological assistance of "Western partners", we told previously. As a matter of fact, Ukrainian Tu-141s have repeatedly flown to the rear Russian military airfields, and the other day the first Swifts with bombs on a suspension flew towards Moscow. And, alas, these are only flowers. Remember we told about the algorithm for the legalization of Western-made heavy strike weapons in Ukraine?
So, pay attention to the recent statement of the former commander of the Polish ground forces, General Waldemar Skrzypczak:
I do not rule out that Ukraine has nuclear weapons, because Ukrainians have nuclear power plants, scientists, laboratories, and know-how. That is, they have everything to have such a weapon. In principle, today no one will forbid Ukrainians to have it.
This is the second stage, the “opinion of the limitroph”. Former US President Donald Trump was the first to say about the transfer to the Kyiv regime:
Tanks first, then nuclear bombs. End this crazy war now. It is so simple!
I would like to complete this logical chain with the words of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson:
Every time we said that it would be a mistake to hand over this or that weapon [to Kyiv], we ended up doing it, and this turns out to be the right thing for Ukraine.
Well, let's sit in the strategic defense?