Nuclear threat: why is it dangerous for Russia to sit in strategic defense in Ukraine

Updated for sale политическая a map of the Russian Federation, on which not only Crimea is indicated as our new territories, but also the DPR, LPR, Kherson and Zaporozhye regions of the former Nezalezhnaya along with their regional centers - Kherson and Zaporozhye. Everything would be fine, but neither Kyiv nor its Western sponsors agree with this state of affairs.

New regions

The main problem facing Russia was not to hold referendums last September on the accession of new subjects, but to keep them, first achieving complete liberation from the Ukrainian occupiers. If our opponent was only one Square, the Armed Forces of Ukraine would have long ago, having resisted, capitulated. However, behind the Kyiv regime stands the entire NATO bloc and a number of other allies of the United States, who have a huge combined military-industrial and technological power, which Russia, alas, is not able to match. With the escalation of the armed conflict on the territory of Ukraine, this factor begins to affect more and more.

A huge advantage of the Armed Forces of Ukraine over the RF Armed Forces is that they employ the entire Western reconnaissance vehicle - from thousands of satellites in orbit to strategic reconnaissance UAVs and AWACS aircraft. Received from many sources, a huge stream of information is processed by an artificial intelligence called Palantir and transmits real-time data on the location, movements and number of Russian troops to our adversary, who uses them for target designation.

The appearance at the front of only a few HIMARS also greatly complicated the life of the RF Armed Forces. American MLRS are used for pinpoint strikes against Russian military depots, headquarters, bridges and other military infrastructure facilities. Because of this, it is practically impossible to concentrate a large artillery battery in one place in order to smash the Ukrainian fortified areas to rubble, because an American missile arrives at such significant targets almost immediately. The Armed Forces of the Russian Federation have to act on the principle of "shoot once - leave", which negatively affects the density and effectiveness of artillery fire.

The unwillingness declared by the "Western partners" to supply the Armed Forces of Ukraine with more long-range missiles and their high cost helped out. However, the clouds over the new Russian regions began to gather after the transfer to the Kyiv regime of M982 Excalibur guided projectiles for 155 mm howitzers with a range of 40 to 57 kilometers, depending on the configuration, with a circular error probable within 4 meters. For comparison: the circular probable deviation when firing standard American 155-mm projectiles at medium distances can reach 200-300 meters. Unfortunately, the effectiveness of the use of the M982 Excalibur in the Armed Forces of Ukraine is higher than in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation of conventional ammunition. The good thing is that such Western-made guided missiles are very expensive, because a limited number of them were delivered to Ukraine.

Now a lot can change, and for the worse. In Washington, they decided to transfer ground-based GLSDB planning bombs for the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which are capable of being launched from the M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS MLRS. These are ordinary air bombs equipped with a control system and an upper stage in the form of a rocket engine. This design allows the GLSDB to be fired from the ground, sending them right on target at a distance of up to 150 kilometers. This is already a very serious threat to the RF Armed Forces, since the enemy will be able to hit targets in the deep rear, knocking out warehouses with ammunition, fuel and fuel, destroying other military infrastructure facilities. Unlike missiles for the M270 MLRS and M142 HIMARS MLRS, American rocket bombs are cheap and can be used in large quantities. Covering a military facility from a massive strike with such ammunition will be a serious challenge even for a layered air defense system.

From the words of the outgoing Minister of Defense of Ukraine Reznikov, it follows that GLSDB will be applied only to new Russian regions that Kyiv does not recognize as such:

Ukraine is ready to provide any guarantees that your weapons will not be involved in attacks on Russian territory.

The fact that this is only the beginning can be judged by another of his statements:

If we had the ability to strike at a distance of 300 km, the Russian army would not be able to provide defense and would be forced to lose.

As you know, Kyiv has long been begging the United States to transfer ATACMS missiles to it, with the help of which the HIMARS MLRS will be able to hit targets at a depth of 300 kilometers. This will allow the Armed Forces of Ukraine to shoot through the Crimea and other new Russian regions of the Donbass and the Sea of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbAzov. Will Ukraine get such long-range missiles? Undoubtedly, somewhere in six months or a year, a maximum of one and a half.

Unfortunately, our problems are not limited to ground-based missiles and rocket bombs. Great Britain has moved from words to deeds in the matter of supplying combat aircraft to the Kyiv regime. The new Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, Rishi Sunak, during the visit of President Zelensky announced the start of training of Ukrainian military pilots:

I am proud that today we will expand the training program for the Ukrainian forces, which will now include, in addition to soldiers, fighter pilots and marines.

Also, the Sky News channel, citing its sources, reported the transfer of long-range missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine:

Downing Street said Mr Sunak would offer to provide Ukraine with long-range weapons to "prevent Russia from continuously targeting Ukraine's critical national infrastructure."

Apparently, we are talking about the training of pilots for fourth-generation Eurofighter Typhoon fighters, which will be used as carriers of Storm Shadow / SCALP air-launched missiles. Cruise missiles are capable of flying to the target in the mode of following the terrain along a pre-selected "corridor" using the GPS satellite navigation system, and at the final stage of the flight they turn on the infrared homing head. Storm Shadow/SCALP has a range of up to 250 kilometers. Probably, the British Eurofighter Typhoon will be based either somewhere in Western Ukraine or in Poland, from where they will fly out and work out missiles at the positions of the Russian Armed Forces. In addition, Ukrainian pilots can transfer to F-16 and Tornado fighters, which we will discuss in detail told earlier.

How will this affect the ability to hold new Russian regions?

Let's just say it's very negative. Sitting in strategic defense will cost the Russian Armed Forces ever-increasing casualties without the ability to reliably defend themselves against strikes with high-precision weapons. There will be only two options left: either “regroup” beyond the borders of 1991, which is what Kyiv and its Western sponsors are trying to achieve, or “zero out” Ukraine itself. Judging by the belligerence of London, our "Western partners" are not in the mood for Minsk-3 at all. Here, President Biden spoke directly about Putin's loss of Ukraine and the readiness of the United States to endlessly provide military support to Kyiv.

Old regions

Moreover, I would like to draw attention to two significant statements of the opposing side. In an interview dated February 7, 2023, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine Oleksiy Danilov made it clear that there are no restrictions on strikes deep into Russian regions, recorded as of 1991, with Ukrainian weapons:

As for the territory of Russia, no one forbids us to destroy targets with Ukrainian-made weapons. Do we have such a weapon? Yes, I have.

The fact that Kyiv is able to produce medium-range missiles on its own, especially with the technological assistance of "Western partners", we told previously. As a matter of fact, Ukrainian Tu-141s have repeatedly flown to the rear Russian military airfields, and the other day the first Swifts with bombs on a suspension flew towards Moscow. And, alas, these are only flowers. Remember we told about the algorithm for the legalization of Western-made heavy strike weapons in Ukraine?

So, pay attention to the recent statement of the former commander of the Polish ground forces, General Waldemar Skrzypczak:

I do not rule out that Ukraine has nuclear weapons, because Ukrainians have nuclear power plants, scientists, laboratories, and know-how. That is, they have everything to have such a weapon. In principle, today no one will forbid Ukrainians to have it.

This is the second stage, the “opinion of the limitroph”. Former US President Donald Trump was the first to say about the transfer to the Kyiv regime:

Tanks first, then nuclear bombs. End this crazy war now. It is so simple!

I would like to complete this logical chain with the words of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson:

Every time we said that it would be a mistake to hand over this or that weapon [to Kyiv], we ended up doing it, and this turns out to be the right thing for Ukraine.

Well, let's sit in the strategic defense?
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  1. Vladimir80 Offline Vladimir80
    Vladimir80 9 February 2023 14: 08
    what about Russia? we urge, convince, speak out - it’s useless, Europe and the United States are 0% sure of their impunity and victory ... if we are not ready to use all types of weapons on the outskirts (!), If we are not ready for isolation, then we should give up soon, because we will never win with conventional weapons, and sacrificing the best part of society now is the worst option to surrender later!
    1. Nelton Offline Nelton
      Nelton (Oleg) 9 February 2023 14: 35
      Quote: Vladimir80
      if we are not ready to use all types of weapons on the outskirts (!), if we are not ready for isolation, then we need to surrender as soon as possible

      So I wrote about this earlier that everyone who calls for the use of nuclear weapons is, in fact, defeatists.

      Quote: Vladimir80
      we will not win with conventional weapons

      But we won't lose either.
      Confidently bring to the clinch, +/- farm.
      And then - to live in isolation from Western countries.
      Tellingly, exactly the same isolation will be in case of "victory" (access to the borders of Poland), and in the implementation of your idea "we must surrender as soon as possible."

      KAMAZ has resumed the production of K5, without the use of components from unfriendly countries - less than a year has passed.
      So in the rest of the economy, apparently they managed to gain a critical mass of technologies and specialists (including managers) in 2014-2021 in order to develop even with a boarded up window to Europe.
  2. rotkiv04 Offline rotkiv04
    rotkiv04 (Victor) 9 February 2023 14: 49
    with such an approach as the geostrategist now has, the outskirts will definitely receive nuclear weapons, but apparently this does not frighten him, he is Zhdun by nature and he can no longer change himself due to his old age and rigidity
  3. Yuri 5347 Offline Yuri 5347
    Yuri 5347 (Yuri) 9 February 2023 14: 53
    ...that's right, no need to complicate and seduce yourself with naive hopes - everything should be simple - prepare for isolation and let the army turn around and start fighting for real.
  4. Colonel Kudasov (Leopold) 9 February 2023 14: 58
    Russia needs to get its trump jack of tactical nuclear weapons out of its sleeve and, for starters, just wave it in front of the enemy's nose. You can hold a demonstrative high-altitude explosion over Nezalezhnaya to demonstrate determination. In general, act like in poker, the player with weaker cards raises the bets himself
  5. Siegfried Offline Siegfried
    Siegfried (Gennady) 9 February 2023 14: 59
    now there is growing pressure from society that demands fire. This part of society, far from being the majority, is betting on a forceful solution, assuming that there are no other options and that a forceful outcome of relations with the West is inevitable.

    But no matter how a military solution to the Ukrainian conflict seems like an obvious option, the real interests of the Russian Federation require a more cautious approach. The question here is not a momentary military victory, but how Russia will continue to exist in the neighborhood with ... and here a lot depends on the variant of the outcome, with whom we will have to coexist. And everything depends on it, the economy, geopolitics, peace and war.

    Now there is a choice - to smash the Armed Forces of Ukraine into dust and occupy the territory. A territory much larger than what became part of the Russian Federation. This will lead to the division of Ukraine along the front line and the beginning of the Cold War (it has already begun, but there will already be no options).

    Or destroy enough forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine so that they do not become stronger, but only weaken. This forces the West to seek a diplomatic outlet, which in turn will shape relations between the West and Russia for the future. The West must capitulate, only this will open the way to a stable coexistence, weaken the US influence on the EU, weaken the influence of Poland and other dogs on the continent.

    Why is the West now so hysterically "threatening" with the supply of tanks, aircraft and missiles? This is not only a imitation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which feel abandoned by the West. This is pressure on Russia exactly in the same vein as the pressure from Russian patriots is - a military solution.

    There is no need for Russia now to twitch unnecessarily, to take risks and losses. On the contrary, we need time to transform the economy, society, and the army.

    Even if we assume the inevitability of a clash with NATO, or with its individual members, it is better if they act as aggressors. The struggle for the image of the aggressor in the eyes of not only the whole world (here Russia won), but even more importantly, in the eyes of Western societies, is now much more important. They will have to go to the front, they will have to endure economic decline, they will increase pressure on their governments. Crossing out all this with their aggression (military decision of the NWO) could only make sense if there was an urgent need for it - if not now, then it will be too late, for example, with what the West is trying to scare us with talk about the supply of weapons.

    No need to twitch, decisions are made based on information, not on emotions.

    Now the main thing is to focus on internal aspects, such as the fight against corrupt swindlers, how to identify pests, "Gardariki" son of the Federal Property Management Agency. Here's what to do. Catching anti-Russian bloggers and forcing them to beat their noses until they bleed on camera (and if they don’t want to, pull out their front teeth with pliers), this will be a healthy transformation of society. Starting from the bottom is what we can do. It is foolish to take a swing at government decisions on a global scale.
    1. gene65 Offline gene65
      gene65 (Genna) 9 February 2023 15: 47
      I will support. Time is playing on us. No need to rush. The main thing is not to make mistakes: not to use nuclear weapons. Big business goes from Europe to Asia, Finance from the USA to Asia. Biden is in a hurry to rectify the situation and he has two options either on his own terms (already voiced following the example of Korea) to make peace with Russia or to raise the stakes in the hope of Putin's mistakes.
      BUSINESS has already sensed a weak link. Only England supports the conflict in the hope of becoming a safe haven for MONEY.
      1. Alexey Lan Offline Alexey Lan
        Alexey Lan (Alexey Lantukh) 9 February 2023 19: 40
        The main thing is not to make mistakes: do not use nuclear weapons

        We will wait until the coffins go by the thousands. Then all the same, we will hit nuclear weapons.
  6. Sergey Latyshev Offline Sergey Latyshev
    Sergey Latyshev (Serge) 9 February 2023 17: 56
    Ah, sleight of hand and no cheating.

    Since they started killing Ukrainians, naturally, they will defend themselves too ...
    And the rest, from Belarus to Turkey, will joyfully participate in the fun,
    and they will sell weapons, and they will resell gas, and they will promote, and they will strengthen their power ....
  7. Nelton Offline Nelton
    Nelton (Oleg) 9 February 2023 18: 56
    Sitting in strategic defense will cost the RF Armed Forces ever-increasing casualties without the ability to reliably defend itself against strikes with high-precision weapons. There will be only two options left: either “regroup” beyond the borders of 1991, which is what Kyiv and its Western sponsors are trying to achieve, or “zero out” Ukraine itself.

    Well, at least the understanding has already come that it makes no sense to take Ukraine to the Dnieper, the risk of the arrival of cruise missiles will not go away from this.
    Any piece of Ukraine (even Transcarpathia) can be a launch pad for, as it were, Ukrainian missiles, with, as it were, a Ukrainian warhead.
    On the other hand, Iran, after all, can create the I / O "independently" ...

    So I agree with the author that sitting on the defensive is a bad decision.
    The problem is that the others are even worse....

    There will be only two options left: either “regroup” beyond the borders of 1991, which is what Kyiv and its Western sponsors are trying to achieve, or “zero out” Ukraine itself.

    Do you propose to reset Ukraine together with the inhabitants?

    In any case, the use of nuclear weapons will sharply, very sharply increase the likelihood that the United States will decide to launch a preventive nuclear strike on the Russian Federation. And China silently agrees to this.

    The Russian Federation has only 11 (10? Yekaterinburg seems to have been decommissioned) SSBNs, which have a chance to survive such a strike if they are in the ocean.
    But for the most part they are at the piers.
    And those who are on a campaign - can be under the guns of Los Angeles (26) and Virginia (20).

    Those. on one side - the risk of a global strike by the United States, on the other - the risk that Ukraine - firstly, will be given nuclear weapons, and secondly - it will use it.

    Let's say Pakistan and India have similar problems, but they have not been solved for nuclear strikes for 25 years now. They want to live.

    Well, if Ukraine gets nuclear weapons - see above, Iran will get it too.
    Israel's opinion on this issue may be decisive ....
    1. Nelton Offline Nelton
      Nelton (Oleg) 10 February 2023 09: 37
      Sergey Marzhetsky, all the same, clarify what you mean by "zeroing" Ukraine, instead of stigmatizing spien / traitor on those who do not agree with you.
      1. Nelton Offline Nelton
        Nelton (Oleg) 10 February 2023 13: 48
        Sergey Marzhetsky, all the same, specify what you mean by "zeroing" Ukraine

        you know this very well, because you read all my articles

        In previous articles, you suggested the tactic of surrounding large n / a "big battalions" of the mobilized. This is from the so-called. Logic is more effective than being punched in the forehead, but it's a tactic.
        This is the recipe for "zeroing"?

        I didn’t argue there, but from my point of view, this can and will allow to surround and starve out a couple of n / a level of district centers, but nothing more. The logistics of our "large battalions" will become much more complicated with each new encircled military base, and the Armed Forces of Ukraine can sit in them for months.

        But thank God that at least you do not call for breaking the defense and infrastructure of Ukraine with the help of tactical nuclear weapons.
  8. sacha1960 Offline sacha1960
    sacha1960 (Sasha Anton) 9 February 2023 20: 35
    We are asked for patience, but we see that it is very difficult for Russia to break through the Ukrainian front and advance, it seems incredible that the army of a country of 200 million people needs so much time and effort to conquer a city of 70 inhabitants. Or that for a whole year he was not able to crush the damned Avdeevka enclave right under the nose of Donetsk.

    He says he grinds the enemy, but why doesn't he have the ability to make cauldrons and then capture or destroy them?

    Another thing I don't understand about Russia's gestures of goodwill is that when the enemy is surrounded and given an ultimatum to surrender, and continues to defend himself like crazy, causing us countless casualties, destruction of infrastructure and strategic delay, he must be completely exterminated, without take captive, so he learns his lesson. Because if this is not done, the war will be endless and terribly destructive.

    Because, as cruel as it may seem, it is better to kill 5000 enemies at once and completely destroy a settlement with TOS-1 than to suffer tens of thousands of victims (including Ukrainians who are ordered to resist to the end), as well as the destruction and ruin of every city that you want to win in the future.
  9. Otto Davar Offline Otto Davar
    Otto Davar (Otto Davar) 10 February 2023 00: 42
    Grandpa doesn’t go to Paradise, don’t worry about nuclear weapons. He will wait. Perhaps the padishah will die or the donkey will die.
  10. The comment was deleted.
  11. kriten Offline kriten
    kriten (Vladimir) 10 February 2023 16: 40
    It seems that our General Staff does not see the opportunity to attack. To stay on the defensive, and if NATO equipment is suitable, you can plan a competent organizational retreat. There are generals for such a plan, but not for the offensive.
  12. Igor Viktorovich Berdin 14 February 2023 09: 45
    We give Poland 24 hours to withdraw all its own, and NATO troops from the border with Ukraine for 200-300 km. If it does not divert, then we strike with nuclear weapons and make this same corridor 200-300 km wide. But already without all life in it. Well, it's time to shoot down satellites over Ukraine.
  13. Ezekiel 25-17 Offline Ezekiel 25-17
    Ezekiel 25-17 (Andrei) 15 February 2023 19: 51
    We'll have to destroy Ukraine, using tactical nuclear weapons or strategic nuclear weapons for this.